Position: Evaluation Scores Are Perishable Knowledge Claims
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
Evaluation methodologies for language models increasingly combine multiple signals, from automated metrics and LLM-as-judge ratings to human assessments and benchmark suite results. When these signals are aggregated via averaging, evaluation confidence can then substantially exceed the reliability of the weakest signal: a phenomenon we call trust inflation in evaluation. We argue that evaluation scores should be treated as epistemic claims with three properties: formality (human evaluation provides stronger evidence than an automated metric), scope (a benchmark result applies to the tested distribution, not universally), and validity windows (benchmark results expire as contamination accumulates and distributions shift). Several converging research traditions (chain-of-thought analysis, possibilistic logic, and algebraic theory) establish weakest-link aggregation as the conservative endpoint of a parameterized operator family controlled by a single pessimism parameter. Drawing on those traditions, and on concrete lessons from building an evaluation harness for agentic AI, we propose that evaluation results carry explicit metadata (formality tier, scope declaration, and expiration date) to make their epistemic status transparent. We illustrate the cost of mean aggregation on the public HELM leaderboard: across 54 frontier models on ten scenarios, the top-five models ranked by mean score and by weakest-link are completely disjoint.
Key facts. Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 14 of its 22 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 28 Jul 2026.
Builds on
14 of 22 references.
References · 14
- 2024A Survey on LLM-as-a-Judgecited by 1,423
- 2018Datasheets for Datasetscited by 1,386
- 2018Model Cards for Model Reportingcited by 1,080
- 2025Reasoning Models Don't Always Say What They Thinkcited by 415
- 2022Repairing the Cracked Foundation: A Survey of Obstacles in Evaluation Practices for Generated Textcited by 155
- 2024A Chain-of-Thought Is as Strong as Its Weakest Link: A Benchmark for Verifiers of Reasoning Chainscited by 65
- 2023Elo Uncovered: Robustness and Best Practices in Language Model Evaluationcited by 61
- 2023Rethinking Model Evaluation as Narrowing the Socio-Technical Gapcited by 56
- 2024Style Outweighs Substance: Failure Modes of LLM Judges in Alignment Benchmarkingcited by 35
- 2025DOVE: A Large-Scale Multi-Dimensional Predictions Dataset Towards Meaningful LLM Evaluationcited by 21
- 2021Predicting Different Types of Subtle Toxicity in Unhealthy Online Conversationscited by 5
- 2024Are Fact-Checking Tools Helpful? An Exploration of the Usability of Google Fact Checkcited by 4
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 3.
3 papers.
- 2026LLM-based Agents for Forecasting and Prediction: Methods, Training, Evaluation, and Applicationscited by 1
- 2026Benchmark Radar: A Living Database and Search Engine for AI Benchmarks and Evaluationcited by 0
- 2026Epi-Logic: A Conceptual Framework for Epistemic Runtime Control, Schema Validity Checking, and Controlled Accommodation in Autonomous AI Agentscited by 0
- 2026Epi-Logic: A Conceptual Framework for Epistemic Runtime Control, Schema Validity Checking, and Controlled Accommodation in Autonomous AI Agents21 Sep 2026
- 2026Benchmark Radar: A Living Database and Search Engine for AI Benchmarks and Evaluation10 Sep 2026
- 2026LLM-based Agents for Forecasting and Prediction: Methods, Training, Evaluation, and Applications24 Aug 2026
Similar, not cited
Close in wording, no citation either way
- 2025The simulation of judgment in LLMs
- 2026Towards More Standardized AI Evaluation: From Models to Agents
- 2025Large Language Models Often Know When They Are Being Evaluated
- 2025Measurement to Meaning: A Validity-Centered Framework for AI Evaluation
- 2026Models That Know How Evaluations Are Designed Score Safer
- 2025LLMs Judge Themselves: A Game-Theoretic Framework for Human-Aligned Evaluation
- 2026A Unified Evaluation Framework for Trustworthy Large Language Models, Agentic AI, and Multimodal Systems
- 2024Can Large Language Models be Trusted for Evaluation? Scalable Meta-Evaluation of LLMs as Evaluators via Agent Debate