Training-Free Metrics for Synthetic Object Detection Data: A Proxy for Detector Performance

Synthetic images are increasingly used to augment scarce real data for object detection. However, not all synthetic sets help equally, and the only way to know a set's value is to train a detector on it, which is slow and demands dense annotation. We ask whether a training-free metric can instead rank candidate synthetic training sets by their downstream utility. Existing image-set metrics such as FID, KID, and MMD compare two feature distributions with a single global statistic, which we show is mis-specified for detection-data selection in two ways: it is blind to per-image composition (object count, box scale, class mix), and even at fixed composition its global averaging washes out the appearance differences that separate high-mAP pools from low-mAP ones. We propose Conditional-Composition Domain Match (CCDM), which converts any feature-space distance into a composition-stratified comparison, matching candidate and target within metadata-defined strata without training a detector. On COCO and VisDrone-DET, the best CCDM variant ranks 19 candidate training sets in strong agreement with YOLOv8 mAP (Spearman rho = 0.97 and 0.96), outperforming FID, KID, and MMD. Furthermore, CCDM holds when reference metadata comes from detector pseudo-labels rather than ground-truth boxes.