Lost in the Non-convex Loss Landscape: How to Fine-tune the Large Time Series Model?
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Abstract (arXiv)
Recently, large time series models (LTSMs) have gained increasing attention due to their similarities to large language models, including flexible context length, scalability, and task generality, outperforming advanced task-specific models. However, prior studies indicate that pre-trained LTSMs may exhibit a poorly conditioned non-convex loss landscape, leading to limited trainability. As a result, direct fine-tuning tends to cause overfitting and suboptimal performance, sometimes even worse than training from scratch, substantially diminishing the benefits of pre-training. To overcome this limitation, we propose Smoothed Full Fine-tuning (SFF), a novel fine-tuning technology. Specifically, we construct an auxiliary LTSM via random initialization to obtain a smoother loss landscape, and then linearly interpolate its weights with those of the pre-trained model to smooth the original landscape. This process improves trainability while preserving pre-trained knowledge, thereby enabling more effective downstream fine-tuning. From an optimization perspective, SFF perturbs sharp minima without significantly harming flat regions, facilitating escape from poor local basins toward smoother and more generalizable solutions. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate consistent improvements across eight representative LTSMs, including Timer, TimesFM, MOMENT, UniTS, MOIRAI, Chronos, TTMs, and Sundial, on diverse downstream tasks. The code is available at the link: https://github.com/Meteor-Stars/SFF.
Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 28 of its 40 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 7 Jun 2026.
Builds on
28 of 40 references.
References · 28
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- 2020Sharpness-Aware Minimization for Efficiently Improving Generalizationcited by 1,417
- 2022Model soups: averaging weights of multiple fine-tuned models improves accuracy without increasing inference timecited by 1,396
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- 2018Averaging Weights Leads to Wider Optima and Better Generalizationcited by 1,209
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- 2024Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Seriescited by 759
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- 2024Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformerscited by 614
16 more
- 2024MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Modelscited by 482
- 2018Explicit Inductive Bias for Transfer Learning with Convolutional Networkscited by 227
- 2024Timer: Generative Pre-trained Transformers Are Large Time Series Modelscited by 208
- 2025Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 180
- 2019Time-Series Anomaly Detection Service at Microsoftcited by 165
- 2020Current Time Series Anomaly Detection Benchmarks are Flawed and are Creating the Illusion of Progresscited by 151
- 2019Mixout: Effective Regularization to Finetune Large-scale Pretrained Language Modelscited by 141
- 2024Tiny Time Mixers (TTMs): Fast Pre-trained Models for Enhanced Zero/Few-Shot Forecasting of Multivariate Time Seriescited by 127
- 2018The Goldilocks zone: Towards better understanding of neural network loss landscapescited by 32
- 2021What can linear interpolation of neural network loss landscapes tell us?cited by 28
- 2024Continual Learning with Weight Interpolationcited by 13
- 2025Multi-period Learning for Financial Time Series Forecastingcited by 11
- 2026SEMixer: Semantics Enhanced MLP-Mixer for Multiscale Mixing and Long-term Time Series Forecastingcited by 4
- 2026A Lightweight Sparse Interaction Network for Time Series Forecastingcited by 3
- 2026Diff-MN: Diffusion Parameterized MoE-NCDE for Continuous Time Series Generation with Irregular Observationscited by 2
- 2026Amortized Predictability-aware Training Framework for Time Series Forecasting and Classificationcited by 1
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