Stop Drawing Scientific Claims from LLM Social Simulations Without Robustness Audits
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Abstract (arXiv)
The scientific claims drawn from LLM social simulations should be no stronger than the robustness audits that support them. Generative agents bring new expressive power to agent-based modeling, enabling simulations of collective social processes like cooperation, polarization, and norm formation. Yet they also introduce complexity through additional architectural choices, such as agent specification, memory representation, interaction protocols, and environment design. Small perturbations that appear minor to researchers can cascade into macro-level outcomes through repeated interaction, creating a "butterfly effect." Consequently, scientific claims drawn from LLM social simulations may reflect implementation artifacts rather than the social mechanisms being modeled. We support this position with two case studies: a repeated Prisoner's Dilemma and a social media echo chamber simulation. Across multiple models, minor perturbations in persona format and game-instruction framing shift cooperation rates by up to 76 percentage points, while network homophily and hub assignment produce significant and consistent shifts in polarization metrics. We also find that sensitivity is unevenly distributed across both architectural choices and model families: the same perturbation that produces the 76 pp shift in one frontier model only shifts another by 1 pp. Robustness is therefore a property that should be measured per claim and per model, not assumed. To address this validation gap, we introduce TRAILS (Taxonomy for Robustness Audits In LLM Simulations), a robustness-audit taxonomy spanning three levels of simulation design: agent (micro-level), interaction (meso-level), and system (macro-level). We call for robustness to become a first-order validation requirement before LLM social simulations are used to explain mechanisms, evaluate interventions, or inform decisions.
Key facts. Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 46 of its 73 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 17 May 2026.
Builds on
46 of 73 references.
References · 46
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Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 8.
8 papers.
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- 2026From Caricature to Collective Artifact: How Persona Construction Drives Polarization in Generative Social Simulations12 Oct 2026
- 2026Studying Comics at Scale with Artificial Intelligence: The PAGE Framework and Three Studies of American Comics and Japanese Manga9 Oct 2026
- 2026Benchmarking large language model agent societies against human behavioural distributions28 Aug 2026
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- 2026Belief Coevolution in a Social Network of Generalist and Specialist Large Language Models29 Jul 2026
- 2026Collective cooperation without individual fidelity in LLM agents29 Jun 2026
- 2026Defeat Devices in AI Systems27 Jun 2026
- 2026Mitigating LLM-based p-Hacking by Preregistering for the Next LLM26 Jun 2026
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