mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

FutureWorld: A Live Reinforcement Learning Environment for Predictive Agents with Real-World Outcome Rewards

arXiv 2604.26733 ↗First posted 29 Apr 2026cs.AI cs.LGcited by 2

On the map: LLM agents and tool use → General LLM agent frameworks and benchmarks

Abstract (arXiv)

Live future prediction refers to the task of making predictions about real-world events before they unfold. This task is increasingly studied using large language model-based agent systems, and it is important for building agents that can continually learn from the real world. It can provide a large number of prediction questions grounded in diverse real-world events, while preventing answer leakage. To leverage the advantages of future prediction, we present FutureWorld, a live agentic reinforcement learning environment that closes the training loop between prediction, outcome realization, and parameter updates. Specifically, we modify and extend verl-tool, resulting in a new framework that we call verl-tool-future. Unlike standard reinforcement learning training frameworks that rely on immediate rewards, verl-tool-future stores prediction-time rollouts, backfills rewards after real-world outcomes become available, and then replays the completed trajectories for policy update. Across three open-source agents, successive FutureWorld training rounds lead to consistent improvements in prediction accuracy, probabilistic scoring, and calibration, demonstrating that delayed real-world outcome feedback can serve as an effective reinforcement learning signal.

Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in General LLM agent frameworks and benchmarks, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use. Builds on 20 of its 37 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 29 Apr 2026.

Builds on

20 of 37 references.

References · 20

  1. 2024DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Modelscited by 8,851
  2. 2023Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttentioncited by 5,767
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  9. 2024AppWorld: A Controllable World of Apps and People for Benchmarking Interactive Coding Agentscited by 359
  10. 2024WorkArena: How Capable Are Web Agents at Solving Common Knowledge Work Tasks?cited by 348
  11. 2019Interactive Fiction Games: A Colossal Adventurecited by 165
  12. 2024ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilitiescited by 104
8 more
  1. 2025Reinforcement Learning for Long-Horizon Interactive LLM Agentscited by 103
  2. 2025VerlTool: Towards Holistic Agentic Reinforcement Learning with Tool Usecited by 92
  3. 2020ForecastQA: A Question Answering Challenge for Event Forecasting with Temporal Text Datacited by 43
  4. 2025Flash-Searcher: Fast and Effective Web Agents via DAG-Based Parallel Executioncited by 27
  5. 2025Outcome-based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Futurecited by 21
  6. 2026MiroFlow: Towards High-Performance and Robust Open-Source Agent Framework for General Deep Research Taskscited by 13
  7. 2025PROPHET: An Inferable Future Forecasting Benchmark with Causal Intervened Likelihood Estimationcited by 8
  8. 2026FutureX-Pro: Extending Future Prediction to High-Value Vertical Domainscited by 8

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2026: 2.

2 papers.

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2024Predicting Future Actions of Reinforcement Learning Agents
  2. 2026Internalizing the Future: A Unified Agentic Training Paradigm for World Model Planning
  3. 2026FutureWorlds: Learning Robotic World Models from Alternative Futures
  4. 2021Policy Gradients Incorporating the Future
  5. 2026Beyond Prediction: Steering VLM Agents with Retrospective World Modeling
  6. 2025RLVR-World: Training World Models with Reinforcement Learning
  7. 2019Learning to Predict Without Looking Ahead: World Models Without Forward Prediction
  8. 2026PriorZero: Bridging Language Priors and World Models for Decision Making