LLMs Should Express Uncertainty Explicitly
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident yet incorrect answers, which can lead to risky failures in real-world applications. We study whether post-training can make a model's self-assessment explicit: when the model is uncertain, can it be trained to signal so within its own response? A central design question is where in the response this signal should be exposed -- during reasoning, while the answer is still being formed, or at the end, once the answer has been produced. We study both. For end-of-reasoning self-assessment, we train the model to verbalize a confidence score for its response, with the aim of high confidence on correct answers and low confidence on incorrect ones. For during-reasoning self-assessment, we train the model to emit the marker <uncertain> whenever its current reasoning state appears unreliable. Across factual reasoning tasks, both forms sharply reduce overconfident errors while improving answer quality, and both can be used as triggers for retrieval augmented generation (RAG) to improve the final response. We further analyze their internal mechanisms: end-of-reasoning verbalized confidence sharpens a confidence-related structure already present in the pretrained model, whereas during-reasoning <uncertain> emission teaches the model to mark high-risk reasoning steps, with parameter changes concentrated in the model's late layers.
Key facts. Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 50 of its 54 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 7 Apr 2026.
Builds on
50 of 54 references.
References · 50
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38 more
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- 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 731
- 2023The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lyingcited by 644
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Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 6.
6 papers.
- 2026From Model Scaling to System Scaling: Scaling the Harness in Agentic AIcited by 8
- 2026Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Modelscited by 2
- 2026Know When to Trust the Skill: Delayed Appraisal and Epistemic Vigilance for Single-Agent LLMscited by 0
- 2026Calibration, Not Answer Selection: Distilling Internal Confidence in Reasoning Modelscited by 0
- 2026When Words Fall Short: Iterative Synergy Between Verbalized Reasoning and Hidden Features for LLM Confidence Estimationcited by 0
- 2026Nudgeability: Reasoning Models Follow Confidence Signals Without Tracking Their Own Competencecited by 0
- 2026Nudgeability: Reasoning Models Follow Confidence Signals Without Tracking Their Own Competence28 Sep 2026
- 2026When Words Fall Short: Iterative Synergy Between Verbalized Reasoning and Hidden Features for LLM Confidence Estimation28 Sep 2026
- 2026Calibration, Not Answer Selection: Distilling Internal Confidence in Reasoning Models27 Sep 2026
- 2026Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Models2 Jun 2026
- 2026From Model Scaling to System Scaling: Scaling the Harness in Agentic AI25 May 2026
- 2026Know When to Trust the Skill: Delayed Appraisal and Epistemic Vigilance for Single-Agent LLMs17 Apr 2026
Similar, not cited
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- 2025Multiple Choice Questions: Reasoning Makes Large Language Models (LLMs) More Self-Confident, Especially When They are Wrong
- 2026CALIBER: Calibrating Confidence Before and After Reasoning in Language Models
- 2025Read Your Own Mind: Reasoning Helps Surface Self-Confidence Signals in LLMs
- 2025Self-Training Large Language Models with Confident Reasoning
- 2026Also Small Models Can Reasonably Self-Evaluate Their Confidence
- 2025Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMs
- 2026How do LLMs Compute Verbal Confidence