Verbalized Confidence Triggers Self-Verification: Emergent Behavior Without Explicit Reasoning Supervision
On the map: LLM reasoning → Test-time compute and efficient thinking
Abstract (arXiv)
Uncertainty calibration is essential for the safe deployment of large language models (LLMs), particularly when users rely on verbalized confidence estimates. While prior work has focused on classifiers or short-form generation, confidence calibration for chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning remains largely unexplored. Surprisingly, we find that supervised fine-tuning with scalar confidence labels alone suffices to elicit self-verification behavior of language models, without any explicit reasoning supervision or reinforcement learning-based rewards. Despite being trained only to produce a verbalized confidence score without any self-verifying examples, the model learns to generate longer and self-checking responses for low-confidence queries while providing more concise answers for high-confidence ones. We further propose a simple rethinking method that boosts performance via test-time scaling based on calibrated uncertainty. Experiments on GSM8K and held-out reasoning tasks such as MATH-500 and ARC-Challenge show that our confidence-aware fine-tuning improves both calibration and accuracy, while also enhancing interpretability by aligning the model's reasoning path with its confidence.
Key facts. Cited by 9 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 15 of its 31 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Jun 2025.
Builds on
15 of 31 references.
Closest ancestors · 3
Same direction, newest first
- 2025Reasoning Models Better Express Their Confidence20 May
- 2024Concise Thoughts: Impact of Output Length on LLM Reasoning and Cost29 Jul
- 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know11 Jul
Other references · 12
- 2023GPT-4 Technical Reportcited by 18,396
- 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,715
- 2021Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problemscited by 10,109
- 2025Qwen3 Technical Reportcited by 8,820
- 2025DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learningcited by 6,330
- 2018Think you have Solved Question Answering? Try ARC, the AI2 Reasoning Challengecited by 4,886
- 2025Kimi k1.5: Scaling Reinforcement Learning with LLMscited by 1,210
- 2024Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMscited by 259
- 2025Learning to Reason without External Rewardscited by 210
- 2025Can Large Reasoning Models Self-Train?cited by 68
- 2025Are Generative AI Agents Effective Personalized Financial Advisors?cited by 18
- 2024Reliable Decision Making via Calibration Oriented Retrieval Augmented Generationcited by 6
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 9.
9 papers.
- 2026LLMs Should Express Uncertainty Explicitlycited by 6
- 2026From Reasoning Traces to Reusable Modules: Understanding Compositional Generalization in Language Model Reasoningcited by 5
- 2026SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignmentcited by 3
- 2026Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Modelscited by 2
- 2026SIEVES: Selective Prediction Generalizes through Visual Evidence Scoringcited by 1
- 2026Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents: A Taxonomy, an Evaluation Protocol, and an Empirical Studycited by 0
- 2026What Confidence Routing Is Actually Doing: Auditing Routing, Calibration, and Commitment in Multi-Agent Deliberationcited by 0
- 2026Learning to Stop without Learning to Stop: Self-Supervised Confidence Training Improves Reasoning Efficiencycited by 0
- 2026On the Pitfalls of Verbalized Confidence Priors for Calibrating Large Reasoning Modelscited by 0
- 2026On the Pitfalls of Verbalized Confidence Priors for Calibrating Large Reasoning Models26 Sep 2026
- 2026Learning to Stop without Learning to Stop: Self-Supervised Confidence Training Improves Reasoning Efficiency25 Sep 2026
- 2026Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents: A Taxonomy, an Evaluation Protocol, and an Empirical Study7 Sep 2026
- 2026What Confidence Routing Is Actually Doing: Auditing Routing, Calibration, and Commitment in Multi-Agent Deliberation18 Aug 2026
- 2026From Reasoning Traces to Reusable Modules: Understanding Compositional Generalization in Language Model Reasoning16 Jun 2026
- 2026SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignment9 Jun 2026
- 2026Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Models2 Jun 2026
- 2026SIEVES: Selective Prediction Generalizes through Visual Evidence Scoring28 Apr 2026
- 2026LLMs Should Express Uncertainty Explicitly7 Apr 2026
Similar, not cited
Close in wording, no citation either way
- 2026Confident in a Confidence Score: Investigating the Sensitivity of Confidence Scores to Supervised Fine-Tuning
- 2026Closing the Confidence-Faithfulness Gap in Large Language Models
- 2026SELFDOUBT: Uncertainty Quantification for Reasoning LLMs via the Hedge-to-Verify Ratio
- 2026Unsupervised Confidence Calibration for Reasoning LLMs from a Single Generation
- 2026Confidence over Time: Confidence Calibration with Temporal Logic for Large Language Model Reasoning
- 2026CALIBER: Calibrating Confidence Before and After Reasoning in Language Models
- 2026Test-time Calibration Learning for Large Language Model Reasoning
- 2026Understanding and Mitigating Premature Confidence for Better LLM Reasoning