Beyond a Single Signal: SPECTREG2, A Unified MultiExpert Anomaly Detector for Unknown Unknowns
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Abstract (arXiv)
Epistemic intelligence requires machine learning systems to recognise the limits of their own knowledge and act safely under uncertainty, especially when faced with unknown unknowns. Existing uncertainty quantification methods rely on a single signal such as confidence or density and fail to detect diverse structural anomalies. We introduce SPECTRE-G2, a multi-signal anomaly detector that combines eight complementary signals from a dual-backbone neural network. The architecture includes a spectral normalised Gaussianization encoder, a plain MLP preserving feature geometry, and an ensemble of five models. These produce density, geometry, uncertainty, discriminative, and causal signals. Each signal is normalised using validation statistics and calibrated with synthetic out-of-distribution data. An adaptive top-k fusion selects the most informative signals and averages their scores. Experiments on synthetic, Adult, CIFAR-10, and Gridworld datasets show strong performance across diverse anomaly types, outperforming multiple baselines on AUROC, AUPR, and FPR95. The model is stable across seeds and particularly effective for detecting new variables and confounders. SPECTRE-G2 provides a practical approach for detecting unknown unknowns in open-world settings.
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References · 16
- 2016Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensemblescited by 3,888
- 2018Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertaintycited by 728
- 2020A Unifying Review of Deep and Shallow Anomaly Detectioncited by 423
- 2020Masksembles for Uncertainty Estimationcited by 88
- 2021Prior and Posterior Networks: A Survey on Evidential Deep Learning Methods For Uncertainty Estimationcited by 71
- 2021Unsupervised Deep Anomaly Detection for Multi-Sensor Time-Series Signalscited by 41
- 2024Is Epistemic Uncertainty Faithfully Represented by Evidential Deep Learning Methods?cited by 34
- 2024A Comprehensive Survey on Evidential Deep Learning and Its Applicationscited by 25
- 2018Deep Ensemble Bayesian Active Learning : Addressing the Mode Collapse issue in Monte Carlo dropout via Ensemblescited by 20
- 2023Continual Evidential Deep Learning for Out-of-Distribution Detectioncited by 11
- 2023Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applicationscited by 11
- 2024A Structured Review of Literature on Uncertainty in Machine Learning & Deep Learningcited by 9
4 more
- 2024Out-of-Distribution Detection Should Use Conformal Prediction (and Vice-versa?)cited by 7
- 2022Improving Out-of-Distribution Detection via Epistemic Uncertainty Adversarial Trainingcited by 4
- 2025Conformal Prediction with Cellwise Outliers: A Detect-then-Impute Approachcited by 4
- 2026Geometrically Constrained Outlier Synthesiscited by 1
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