mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Time-Aware Prior Fitted Networks for Zero-Shot Forecasting with Exogenous Variables

arXiv 2603.15802 ↗First posted 16 Mar 2026cs.LGcited by 2

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Abstract (arXiv)

In many time series forecasting settings, the target time series is accompanied by exogenous covariates, such as promotions and prices in retail demand; temperature in energy load; calendar and holiday indicators for traffic or sales; and grid load or fuel costs in electricity pricing. Ignoring these exogenous signals can substantially degrade forecasting accuracy, particularly when they drive spikes, discontinuities, or regime and phase changes in the target series. Most current time series foundation models (e.g., Chronos, Sundial, TimesFM, TimeMoE, TimeLLM, and LagLlama) ignore exogenous covariates and make forecasts solely from the numerical time series history, thereby limiting their performance. In this paper, we develop ApolloPFN, a prior-data fitted network (PFN) that is time-aware (unlike prior PFNs) and that natively incorporates exogenous covariates (unlike prior univariate forecasters). Our design introduces two major advances: (i) a synthetic data generation framework that injects realistic temporal patterns, structural changes, and exogenous dependencies into the PFN prior; and (ii) time-aware architectural modifications that embed inductive biases needed to exploit temporal context. We demonstrate that ApolloPFN outperforms existing baselines across several forecasting benchmarks with exogenous information, including M5, electric price forecasting, UCI Air Quality, and Solar Energy datasets.

Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 23 of its 40 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 16 Mar 2026.

Builds on

23 of 40 references.

References · 23

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 59,932
  2. 2016Layer Normalizationcited by 5,579
  3. 2021RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embeddingcited by 4,581
  4. 2021On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Modelscited by 3,961
  5. 2023Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Modelscited by 680
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  7. 2022TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Secondcited by 643
  8. 2024Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformerscited by 588
  9. 2020Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalizationcited by 480
  10. 2021Transformers Can Do Bayesian Inferencecited by 338
  11. 2024Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Expertscited by 280
  12. 2021Monash Time Series Forecasting Archivecited by 256
11 more
  1. 2024TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variablescited by 241
  2. 2024GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluationcited by 188
  3. 2025Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 168
  4. 2025Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecastingcited by 158
  5. 2020Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmarkcited by 105
  6. 2023Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecastingcited by 102
  7. 2025fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecastingcited by 52
  8. 2025ChronosX: Adapting Pretrained Time Series Models with Exogenous Variablescited by 21
  9. 2025Position: The Future of Bayesian Prediction Is Prior-Fittedcited by 19
  10. 2025Understanding Transformers for Time Series: Rank Structure, Flow-of-ranks, and Compressibilitycited by 8
  11. 2025Understanding the Implicit Biases of Design Choices for Time Series Foundation Modelscited by 8

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Citing papers per year: 2026: 2.

2 papers.