Do Generative Metrics Predict YOLO Performance? An Evaluation Across Models, Augmentation Ratios, and Dataset Complexity

Synthetic images are increasingly used to augment object-detection training sets, but reliably evaluating a synthetic dataset before training remains difficult: standard global generative metrics (e.g., FID) often do not predict downstream detection mAP. We present a controlled evaluation of synthetic augmentation for YOLOv11 across three single-class detection regimes -- Traffic Signs (sparse/near-saturated), Cityscapes Pedestrian (dense/occlusion-heavy), and COCO PottedPlant (multi-instance/high-variability). We benchmark six GAN-, diffusion-, and hybrid-based generators over augmentation ratios from 10% to 150% of the real training split, and train YOLOv11 both from scratch and with COCO-pretrained initialization, evaluating on held-out real test splits ([email protected]:0.95). For each dataset-generator-augmentation configuration, we compute pre-training dataset metrics under a matched-size bootstrap protocol, including (i) global feature-space metrics in both Inception-v3 and DINOv2 embeddings and (ii) object-centric distribution distances over bounding-box statistics. Synthetic augmentation yields substantial gains in the more challenging regimes (up to +7.6% and +30.6% relative mAP in Pedestrian and PottedPlant, respectively) but is marginal in Traffic Signs and under pretrained fine-tuning. To separate metric signal from augmentation quantity, we report both raw and augmentation-controlled (residualized) correlations with multiple-testing correction, showing that metric-performance alignment is strongly regime-dependent and that many apparent raw associations weaken after controlling for augmentation level.