ConfTuner: Training Large Language Models to Express Their Confidence Verbally
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Abstract (arXiv)
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains such as science, law, and healthcare, where accurate expressions of uncertainty are essential for reliability and trust. However, current LLMs are often observed to generate incorrect answers with high confidence, a phenomenon known as "overconfidence". Recent efforts have focused on calibrating LLMs' verbalized confidence: i.e., their expressions of confidence in text form, such as "I am 80% confident that...". Existing approaches either rely on prompt engineering or fine-tuning with heuristically generated uncertainty estimates, both of which have limited effectiveness and generalizability. Motivated by the notion of proper scoring rules for calibration in classical machine learning models, we introduce ConfTuner, a simple and efficient fine-tuning method that introduces minimal overhead and does not require ground-truth confidence scores or proxy confidence estimates. ConfTuner relies on a new loss function, tokenized Brier score, which we theoretically prove to be a proper scoring rule, intuitively meaning that it "correctly incentivizes the model to report its true probability of being correct". ConfTuner improves calibration across diverse reasoning tasks and generalizes to black-box models such as GPT-4o. Our results further show that better-calibrated confidence enables downstream gains in self-correction and model cascade, advancing the development of trustworthy LLM systems. The code is available at https://github.com/liushiliushi/ConfTuner.
Key facts. Cited by 39 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 27 of its 37 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 26 Aug 2025.
Builds on
27 of 37 references.
References · 27
- 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,715
- 2021Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problemscited by 10,109
- 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,960
- 2024Qwen2.5 Technical Reportcited by 4,942
- 2018HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answeringcited by 3,754
- 2021TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoodscited by 2,975
- 2017TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehensioncited by 2,955
- 2022Survey of Hallucination in Natural Language Generationcited by 2,075
- 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Knowcited by 1,856
- 2023A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models: Principles, Taxonomy, Challenges, and Open Questionscited by 1,601
- 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 974
- 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 812
15 more
- 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 751
- 2021Did Aristotle Use a Laptop? A Question Answering Benchmark with Implicit Reasoning Strategiescited by 743
- 2023The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lyingcited by 659
- 2020Mix-n-Match: Ensemble and Compositional Methods for Uncertainty Calibration in Deep Learningcited by 190
- 2024MediQ: Question-Asking LLMs and a Benchmark for Reliable Interactive Clinical Reasoningcited by 154
- 2024SaySelf: Teaching LLMs to Express Confidence with Self-Reflective Rationalescited by 105
- 2024A Comprehensive Survey of Hallucination in Large Language, Image, Video and Audio Foundation Modelscited by 100
- 2024Large Language Models Must Be Taught to Know What They Don't Knowcited by 100
- 2021Parameterized Temperature Scaling for Boosting the Expressive Power in Post-Hoc Uncertainty Calibrationcited by 48
- 2023When Does Optimizing a Proper Loss Yield Calibration?cited by 36
- 2020Multi-Class Uncertainty Calibration via Mutual Information Maximization-based Binningcited by 27
- 2025As Confidence Aligns: Exploring the Effect of AI Confidence on Human Self-confidence in Human-AI Decision Makingcited by 19
- 2024A Survey on LLM Inference-Time Self-Improvementcited by 17
- 2024LACIE: Listener-Aware Finetuning for Confidence Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 15
- 2024Scoring Rules and Calibration for Imprecise Probabilitiescited by 10
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 6; 2026: 33.
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- 2025Trace Length is a Simple Uncertainty Signal in Reasoning Modelscited by 19
- 2026Just-In-Time Reinforcement Learning: Continual Learning in LLM Agents Without Gradient Updatescited by 19
- 2025ADVICE: Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimationcited by 10
- 2025Calibrating LLM Judges: Linear Probes for Fast and Reliable Uncertainty Estimationcited by 9
- 2026Closing the Confidence-Faithfulness Gap in Large Language Modelscited by 8
- 2026Open-Jev Judgments on CallScreenBench: Calibrated One-Pass Scam Screening with a Small Language Modelcited by 8
- 2025Teaching Language Models to Faithfully Express their Uncertaintycited by 7
- 2026On Calibration of Large Language Models: From Response To Capabilitycited by 7
- 2026NOVA: NOise-aware Verbal Confidence CAlibration for Robust Large Language Models in RAG Systemscited by 6
- 2025Generalized Correctness Models: Learning Calibrated and Model-Agnostic Correctness Predictors from Historical Patternscited by 5
- 2026Verbalizing LLM's Higher-order Uncertainty via Imprecise Probabilitiescited by 5
- 2026I-CALM: Incentivizing Confidence-Aware Abstention for LLM Selective Answeringcited by 5
27 more
- 2025CritiCal: Can Critique Help LLM Uncertainty or Confidence Calibration?cited by 4
- 2026ORCE: Order-Aware Alignment of Verbalized Confidence in Large Language Modelscited by 3
- 2026Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecastingcited by 3
- 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQAcited by 3
- 2026Process Supervision of Confidence Margin for Calibrated LLM Reasoningcited by 2
- 2026Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Modelscited by 2
- 2026Unlocking the Pre-Trained Model as a Dual-Alignment Calibrator for Post-Trained LLMscited by 1
- 2026Confidence Should Be Calibrated More Than One Turn Deepcited by 1
- 2026When Does Visual Token Pruning Improve Calibration? The Role of Evidence Coverage in MLLMscited by 1
- 2026Calibrating LLMs with Semantic-level Rewardcited by 1
- 2026Confidence Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 1
- 2026CALIBER: Calibrating Confidence Before and After Reasoning in Language Modelscited by 1
- 2026CoMet: Context and Multiplicity Decomposition for Multimodal Uncertainty Estimationcited by 1
- 2026Confident at the moment of action: belief miscalibration in LLM play under hidden informationcited by 1
- 2026Logical Consistency as a Bridge: Improving LLM Hallucination Detection via Label Constraint Modeling between Responses and Self-Judgmentscited by 0
- 2026From Critic to Confidence: PPO for Language-Based Quantitative Prediction with Confidence Estimationcited by 0
- 2026From token probabilities to calibrated confidence: An empirical study of mathematical question answeringcited by 0
- 2026RadFusion: Towards Threshold-Controllable Radiology Report Generationcited by 0
- 2026DirEAG: Dirichlet Evidence Aggregation for Calibrating Verbalized Confidence in Mathematical Reasoningcited by 0
- 2026FrankenReport: Early Exiting in Long-Form Generation Using Expected Value of Computationcited by 0
- 2026The Mirage of Calibrated Confidence: Trajectory-Independence of Verbalized Confidence in Vision-Language Modelscited by 0
- 2026On the Pitfalls of Verbalized Confidence Priors for Calibrating Large Reasoning Modelscited by 0
- 2026Calibration, Not Answer Selection: Distilling Internal Confidence in Reasoning Modelscited by 0
- 2026Evaluating Persistent Calibration under Evolving Model Knowledgecited by 0
- 2026"very likely" Means "uncertain"? How LLMs Diverge from Humans in Linguistic Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 0
- 2026OmniMed-Jev: Calibrating LVLM Confidence for Trustworthy Medical Multimodal Decisions via System Onecited by 0
- 2026A Sense of Proprioception in Language Modelscited by 0
- 2026A Sense of Proprioception in Language Models12 Oct 2026
- 2026OmniMed-Jev: Calibrating LVLM Confidence for Trustworthy Medical Multimodal Decisions via System One30 Sep 2026
- 2026Evaluating Persistent Calibration under Evolving Model Knowledge30 Sep 2026
- 2026Calibration, Not Answer Selection: Distilling Internal Confidence in Reasoning Models27 Sep 2026
- 2026On the Pitfalls of Verbalized Confidence Priors for Calibrating Large Reasoning Models26 Sep 2026
- 2026Open-Jev Judgments on CallScreenBench: Calibrated One-Pass Scam Screening with a Small Language Model21 Sep 2026
- 2026The Mirage of Calibrated Confidence: Trajectory-Independence of Verbalized Confidence in Vision-Language Models16 Sep 2026
- 2026"very likely" Means "uncertain"? How LLMs Diverge from Humans in Linguistic Uncertainty Quantification6 Sep 2026
- 2026FrankenReport: Early Exiting in Long-Form Generation Using Expected Value of Computation6 Sep 2026
- 2026Confident at the moment of action: belief miscalibration in LLM play under hidden information25 Aug 2026
- 2026DirEAG: Dirichlet Evidence Aggregation for Calibrating Verbalized Confidence in Mathematical Reasoning21 Aug 2026
- 2026RadFusion: Towards Threshold-Controllable Radiology Report Generation11 Aug 2026
27 more
- 2026From token probabilities to calibrated confidence: An empirical study of mathematical question answering8 Aug 2026
- 2026From Critic to Confidence: PPO for Language-Based Quantitative Prediction with Confidence Estimation14 Jul 2026
- 2026CoMet: Context and Multiplicity Decomposition for Multimodal Uncertainty Estimation30 Jun 2026
- 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA25 Jun 2026
- 2026CALIBER: Calibrating Confidence Before and After Reasoning in Language Models23 Jun 2026
- 2026Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Models2 Jun 2026
- 2026Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecasting26 May 2026
- 2026Calibrating LLMs with Semantic-level Reward15 May 2026
- 2026ORCE: Order-Aware Alignment of Verbalized Confidence in Large Language Models12 May 2026
- 2026Logical Consistency as a Bridge: Improving LLM Hallucination Detection via Label Constraint Modeling between Responses and Self-Judgments5 May 2026
- 2026Process Supervision of Confidence Margin for Calibrated LLM Reasoning25 Apr 2026
- 2026When Does Visual Token Pruning Improve Calibration? The Role of Evidence Coverage in MLLMs13 Apr 2026
- 2026Confidence Should Be Calibrated More Than One Turn Deep7 Apr 2026
- 2026I-CALM: Incentivizing Confidence-Aware Abstention for LLM Selective Answering5 Apr 2026
- 2026Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models3 Apr 2026
- 2026Closing the Confidence-Faithfulness Gap in Large Language Models26 Mar 2026
- 2026Verbalizing LLM's Higher-order Uncertainty via Imprecise Probabilities11 Mar 2026
- 2026On Calibration of Large Language Models: From Response To Capability14 Feb 2026
- 2026Just-In-Time Reinforcement Learning: Continual Learning in LLM Agents Without Gradient Updates26 Jan 2026
- 2026NOVA: NOise-aware Verbal Confidence CAlibration for Robust Large Language Models in RAG Systems16 Jan 2026
- 2026Unlocking the Pre-Trained Model as a Dual-Alignment Calibrator for Post-Trained LLMs7 Jan 2026
- 2025Calibrating LLM Judges: Linear Probes for Fast and Reliable Uncertainty Estimation23 Dec 2025
- 2025CritiCal: Can Critique Help LLM Uncertainty or Confidence Calibration?28 Oct 2025
- 2025Teaching Language Models to Faithfully Express their Uncertainty14 Oct 2025
- 2025ADVICE: Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimation13 Oct 2025
- 2025Trace Length is a Simple Uncertainty Signal in Reasoning Models12 Oct 2025
- 2025Generalized Correctness Models: Learning Calibrated and Model-Agnostic Correctness Predictors from Historical Patterns29 Sep 2025
- 2025Trace Length is a Simple Uncertainty Signal in Reasoning Modelscited by 19
- 2026Process Supervision of Confidence Margin for Calibrated LLM Reasoningcited by 2
- 2026Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Modelscited by 2
- 2026CALIBER: Calibrating Confidence Before and After Reasoning in Language Modelscited by 1
- 2026DirEAG: Dirichlet Evidence Aggregation for Calibrating Verbalized Confidence in Mathematical Reasoningcited by 0
- 2026On the Pitfalls of Verbalized Confidence Priors for Calibrating Large Reasoning Modelscited by 0
- 2026Calibration, Not Answer Selection: Distilling Internal Confidence in Reasoning Modelscited by 0
- 2026Calibration, Not Answer Selection: Distilling Internal Confidence in Reasoning Models27 Sep 2026
- 2026On the Pitfalls of Verbalized Confidence Priors for Calibrating Large Reasoning Models26 Sep 2026
- 2026DirEAG: Dirichlet Evidence Aggregation for Calibrating Verbalized Confidence in Mathematical Reasoning21 Aug 2026
- 2026CALIBER: Calibrating Confidence Before and After Reasoning in Language Models23 Jun 2026
- 2026Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Models2 Jun 2026
- 2026Process Supervision of Confidence Margin for Calibrated LLM Reasoning25 Apr 2026
- 2025Trace Length is a Simple Uncertainty Signal in Reasoning Models12 Oct 2025
- 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQAcited by 3
- 2026When Does Visual Token Pruning Improve Calibration? The Role of Evidence Coverage in MLLMscited by 1
- 2026The Mirage of Calibrated Confidence: Trajectory-Independence of Verbalized Confidence in Vision-Language Modelscited by 0
- 2026The Mirage of Calibrated Confidence: Trajectory-Independence of Verbalized Confidence in Vision-Language Models16 Sep 2026
- 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA25 Jun 2026
- 2026When Does Visual Token Pruning Improve Calibration? The Role of Evidence Coverage in MLLMs13 Apr 2026
- 2025ADVICE: Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimationcited by 10
- 2026Open-Jev Judgments on CallScreenBench: Calibrated One-Pass Scam Screening with a Small Language Modelcited by 8
- 2025Teaching Language Models to Faithfully Express their Uncertaintycited by 7
- 2026On Calibration of Large Language Models: From Response To Capabilitycited by 7
- 2025Generalized Correctness Models: Learning Calibrated and Model-Agnostic Correctness Predictors from Historical Patternscited by 5
- 2026Verbalizing LLM's Higher-order Uncertainty via Imprecise Probabilitiescited by 5
- 2026I-CALM: Incentivizing Confidence-Aware Abstention for LLM Selective Answeringcited by 5
- 2025CritiCal: Can Critique Help LLM Uncertainty or Confidence Calibration?cited by 4
- 2026ORCE: Order-Aware Alignment of Verbalized Confidence in Large Language Modelscited by 3
- 2026Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecastingcited by 3
- 2026Unlocking the Pre-Trained Model as a Dual-Alignment Calibrator for Post-Trained LLMscited by 1
- 2026Confidence Should Be Calibrated More Than One Turn Deepcited by 1
12 most cited of 23 All 23 (JSON)
- 2026A Sense of Proprioception in Language Models12 Oct 2026
- 2026OmniMed-Jev: Calibrating LVLM Confidence for Trustworthy Medical Multimodal Decisions via System One30 Sep 2026
- 2026Evaluating Persistent Calibration under Evolving Model Knowledge30 Sep 2026
- 2026Open-Jev Judgments on CallScreenBench: Calibrated One-Pass Scam Screening with a Small Language Model21 Sep 2026
- 2026"very likely" Means "uncertain"? How LLMs Diverge from Humans in Linguistic Uncertainty Quantification6 Sep 2026
- 2026RadFusion: Towards Threshold-Controllable Radiology Report Generation11 Aug 2026
- 2026From token probabilities to calibrated confidence: An empirical study of mathematical question answering8 Aug 2026
- 2026From Critic to Confidence: PPO for Language-Based Quantitative Prediction with Confidence Estimation14 Jul 2026
- 2026CoMet: Context and Multiplicity Decomposition for Multimodal Uncertainty Estimation30 Jun 2026
- 2026Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecasting26 May 2026
- 2026Calibrating LLMs with Semantic-level Reward15 May 2026
- 2026ORCE: Order-Aware Alignment of Verbalized Confidence in Large Language Models12 May 2026
12 newest of 23 All 23 (JSON)