mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Towards Harmonized Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Models

arXiv 2505.19073 ↗First posted 25 May 2025cs.CLcited by 3

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Abstract (arXiv)

To facilitate robust and trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs), it is essential to quantify the reliability of their generations through uncertainty estimation. While recent efforts have made significant advancements by leveraging the internal logic and linguistic features of LLMs to estimate uncertainty scores, our empirical analysis highlights the pitfalls of these methods to strike a harmonized estimation between indication, balance, and calibration, which hinders their broader capability for accurate uncertainty estimation. To address this challenge, we propose CUE (Corrector for Uncertainty Estimation): A straightforward yet effective method that employs a lightweight model trained on data aligned with the target LLM's performance to adjust uncertainty scores. Comprehensive experiments across diverse models and tasks demonstrate its effectiveness, which achieves consistent improvements of up to 60% over existing methods.

Key facts. Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 31 of its 52 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 25 May 2025.

Builds on

31 of 52 references.

References · 31

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19 more
  1. 2024Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMscited by 259
  2. 2020Selective Question Answering under Domain Shiftcited by 238
  3. 2020Unsupervised Quality Estimation for Neural Machine Translationcited by 211
  4. 2024Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similaritiescited by 159
  5. 2019A General Framework for Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learningcited by 119
  6. 2024LLM Internal States Reveal Hallucination Risk Faced With a Querycited by 82
  7. 2024Uncertainty Estimation and Quantification for LLMs: A Simple Supervised Approachcited by 76
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  9. 2013Deep AutoRegressive Networkscited by 61
  10. 2024Do LLMs Know When to NOT Answer? Investigating Abstention Abilities of Large Language Modelscited by 57
  11. 2024MARS: Meaning-Aware Response Scoring for Uncertainty Estimation in Generative LLMscited by 46
  12. 2024When to Trust LLMs: Aligning Confidence with Response Qualitycited by 43
  13. 2024Cycles of Thought: Measuring LLM Confidence through Stable Explanationscited by 29
  14. 2024Finetuning Language Models to Emit Linguistic Expressions of Uncertaintycited by 26
  15. 2024Do Not Design, Learn: A Trainable Scoring Function for Uncertainty Estimation in Generative LLMscited by 23
  16. 2024Are Large Language Models More Honest in Their Probabilistic or Verbalized Confidence?cited by 23
  17. 2024Enhancing Confidence Expression in Large Language Models Through Learning from Past Experiencecited by 21
  18. 2024Just rephrase it! Uncertainty estimation in closed-source language models via multiple rephrased queriescited by 15
  19. 2024Large Language Model Confidence Estimation via Black-Box Accesscited by 14

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2026: 3.

3 papers.