Finetuning Language Models to Emit Linguistic Expressions of Uncertainty
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in information-seeking and decision-making tasks. Despite their broad utility, LLMs tend to generate information that conflicts with real-world facts, and their persuasive style can make these inaccuracies appear confident and convincing. As a result, end-users struggle to consistently align the confidence expressed by LLMs with the accuracy of their predictions, often leading to either blind trust in all outputs or a complete disregard for their reliability. In this work, we explore supervised finetuning on uncertainty-augmented predictions as a method to develop models that produce linguistic expressions of uncertainty. Specifically, we measure the calibration of pre-trained models and then fine-tune language models to generate calibrated linguistic expressions of uncertainty. Through experiments on various question-answering datasets, we demonstrate that LLMs are well-calibrated in assessing their predictions, and supervised finetuning based on the model's own confidence leads to well-calibrated expressions of uncertainty, particularly for single-claim answers.
Key facts. Cited by 25 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 26 of its 34 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 18 Sep 2024.
Builds on
26 of 34 references.
References · 26
- 2020Language Models are Few-Shot Learnerscited by 32,199
- 2023GPT-4 Technical Reportcited by 18,132
- 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,192
- 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,860
- 2022Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Modelscited by 2,927
- 2021TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoodscited by 2,919
- 2017TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehensioncited by 2,895
- 2022Survey of Hallucination in Natural Language Generationcited by 2,056
- 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Knowcited by 1,783
- 2023A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models: Principles, Taxonomy, Challenges, and Open Questionscited by 1,582
- 2021Scaling Language Models: Methods, Analysis & Insights from Training Gophercited by 1,199
- 2019Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methodscited by 903
14 more
- 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 788
- 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 731
- 2021A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networkscited by 675
- 2020How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answeringcited by 439
- 2020AmbigQA: Answering Ambiguous Open-domain Questionscited by 385
- 2020Calibration of Pre-trained Transformerscited by 307
- 2023A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 253
- 2024Capabilities of Gemini Models in Medicinecited by 231
- 2020Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibrationcited by 209
- 2024Large Legal Fictions: Profiling Legal Hallucinations in Large Language Modelscited by 144
- 2022Explanations Can Reduce Overreliance on AI Systems During Decision-Makingcited by 111
- 2023Navigating the Grey Area: How Expressions of Uncertainty and Overconfidence Affect Language Modelscited by 91
- 2023Selectively Answering Ambiguous Questionscited by 63
- 2024Linguistic Calibration of Long-Form Generationscited by 59
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2024: 1; 2025: 13; 2026: 11.
25 papers.
Sort:
By area:
- 2025Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMscited by 111
- 2025Reasoning Models Better Express Their Confidencecited by 63
- 2024Knowledge Boundary of Large Language Models: A Surveycited by 36
- 2025No Answer Needed: Predicting LLM Answer Accuracy from Question-Only Linear Probescited by 35
- 2025Position: Uncertainty Quantification Needs Reassessment for Large-language Model Agentscited by 27
- 2025Conformal Linguistic Calibration: Trading-off between Factuality and Specificitycited by 20
- 2025MetaFaith: Faithful Natural Language Uncertainty Expression in LLMscited by 15
- 2025Anthropomimetic Uncertainty: What Verbalized Uncertainty in Language Models is Missingcited by 14
- 2025Teaching Language Models to Faithfully Express their Uncertaintycited by 7
- 2025Confidence Elicitation: A New Attack Vector for Large Language Modelscited by 4
- 2026Reinforcement Learning with Metacognitive Feedback Elicits Faithful Uncertainty Expression in LLMscited by 4
- 2025Towards Harmonized Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Modelscited by 3
13 more
- 2026How Reliable are Confidence Estimators for Large Reasoning Models? A Systematic Benchmark on High-Stakes Domainscited by 3
- 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQAcited by 3
- 2025Investigating Human-Aligned Large Language Model Uncertaintycited by 2
- 2026Certainty robustness: Evaluating LLM stability under self-challenging promptscited by 2
- 2026Can LLMs Use Linguistic Uncertainty Markers to Reliably Reflect Intrinsic Confidence?cited by 2
- 2026SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignmentcited by 2
- 2025Thinking About Thinking: Evaluating Reasoning in Post-Trained Language Modelscited by 1
- 2026Capability Self-Assessment in Large Language Modelscited by 1
- 2025Human-Alignment and Calibration of Inference-Time Uncertainty in Large Language Modelscited by 0
- 2026Inducing Artificial Uncertainty in Language Modelscited by 0
- 2026Can a Model Catch Its Own Hallucinations for Free?: Label-Free Doubt Signals Hold Their Own Against a Labelled Dataset for Abstentioncited by 0
- 2026Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents: A Taxonomy, an Evaluation Protocol, and an Empirical Studycited by 0
- 2026"very likely" Means "uncertain"? How LLMs Diverge from Humans in Linguistic Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 0
- 2026Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents: A Taxonomy, an Evaluation Protocol, and an Empirical Study7 Sep 2026
- 2026"very likely" Means "uncertain"? How LLMs Diverge from Humans in Linguistic Uncertainty Quantification6 Sep 2026
- 2026Reinforcement Learning with Metacognitive Feedback Elicits Faithful Uncertainty Expression in LLMs30 Jun 2026
- 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA25 Jun 2026
- 2026Can a Model Catch Its Own Hallucinations for Free?: Label-Free Doubt Signals Hold Their Own Against a Labelled Dataset for Abstention19 Jun 2026
- 2026SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignment9 Jun 2026
- 2026Capability Self-Assessment in Large Language Models29 May 2026
- 2026Can LLMs Use Linguistic Uncertainty Markers to Reliably Reflect Intrinsic Confidence?27 May 2026
- 2026Inducing Artificial Uncertainty in Language Models13 May 2026
- 2026Certainty robustness: Evaluating LLM stability under self-challenging prompts10 Feb 2026
- 2026How Reliable are Confidence Estimators for Large Reasoning Models? A Systematic Benchmark on High-Stakes Domains13 Jan 2026
- 2025Thinking About Thinking: Evaluating Reasoning in Post-Trained Language Models18 Oct 2025
13 more
- 2025Teaching Language Models to Faithfully Express their Uncertainty14 Oct 2025
- 2025No Answer Needed: Predicting LLM Answer Accuracy from Question-Only Linear Probes12 Sep 2025
- 2025Human-Alignment and Calibration of Inference-Time Uncertainty in Large Language Models11 Aug 2025
- 2025Anthropomimetic Uncertainty: What Verbalized Uncertainty in Language Models is Missing11 Jul 2025
- 2025MetaFaith: Faithful Natural Language Uncertainty Expression in LLMs30 May 2025
- 2025Position: Uncertainty Quantification Needs Reassessment for Large-language Model Agents28 May 2025
- 2025Towards Harmonized Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Models25 May 2025
- 2025Reasoning Models Better Express Their Confidence20 May 2025
- 2025Investigating Human-Aligned Large Language Model Uncertainty16 Mar 2025
- 2025Conformal Linguistic Calibration: Trading-off between Factuality and Specificity26 Feb 2025
- 2025Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMs10 Feb 2025
- 2025Confidence Elicitation: A New Attack Vector for Large Language Models7 Feb 2025
- 2024Knowledge Boundary of Large Language Models: A Survey17 Dec 2024
- 2025Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMscited by 111
- 2025Reasoning Models Better Express Their Confidencecited by 63
- 2026How Reliable are Confidence Estimators for Large Reasoning Models? A Systematic Benchmark on High-Stakes Domainscited by 3
- 2025Thinking About Thinking: Evaluating Reasoning in Post-Trained Language Modelscited by 1
- 2026How Reliable are Confidence Estimators for Large Reasoning Models? A Systematic Benchmark on High-Stakes Domains13 Jan 2026
- 2025Thinking About Thinking: Evaluating Reasoning in Post-Trained Language Models18 Oct 2025
- 2025Reasoning Models Better Express Their Confidence20 May 2025
- 2025Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMs10 Feb 2025
- 2024Knowledge Boundary of Large Language Models: A Surveycited by 36
- 2025No Answer Needed: Predicting LLM Answer Accuracy from Question-Only Linear Probescited by 35
- 2025Conformal Linguistic Calibration: Trading-off between Factuality and Specificitycited by 20
- 2025MetaFaith: Faithful Natural Language Uncertainty Expression in LLMscited by 15
- 2025Anthropomimetic Uncertainty: What Verbalized Uncertainty in Language Models is Missingcited by 14
- 2025Teaching Language Models to Faithfully Express their Uncertaintycited by 7
- 2025Confidence Elicitation: A New Attack Vector for Large Language Modelscited by 4
- 2025Towards Harmonized Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Modelscited by 3
- 2026Certainty robustness: Evaluating LLM stability under self-challenging promptscited by 2
- 2026Can LLMs Use Linguistic Uncertainty Markers to Reliably Reflect Intrinsic Confidence?cited by 2
- 2026Capability Self-Assessment in Large Language Modelscited by 1
- 2025Human-Alignment and Calibration of Inference-Time Uncertainty in Large Language Modelscited by 0
12 most cited of 15 All 15 (JSON)
- 2026"very likely" Means "uncertain"? How LLMs Diverge from Humans in Linguistic Uncertainty Quantification6 Sep 2026
- 2026Can a Model Catch Its Own Hallucinations for Free?: Label-Free Doubt Signals Hold Their Own Against a Labelled Dataset for Abstention19 Jun 2026
- 2026Capability Self-Assessment in Large Language Models29 May 2026
- 2026Can LLMs Use Linguistic Uncertainty Markers to Reliably Reflect Intrinsic Confidence?27 May 2026
- 2026Inducing Artificial Uncertainty in Language Models13 May 2026
- 2026Certainty robustness: Evaluating LLM stability under self-challenging prompts10 Feb 2026
- 2025Teaching Language Models to Faithfully Express their Uncertainty14 Oct 2025
- 2025No Answer Needed: Predicting LLM Answer Accuracy from Question-Only Linear Probes12 Sep 2025
- 2025Human-Alignment and Calibration of Inference-Time Uncertainty in Large Language Models11 Aug 2025
- 2025Anthropomimetic Uncertainty: What Verbalized Uncertainty in Language Models is Missing11 Jul 2025
- 2025MetaFaith: Faithful Natural Language Uncertainty Expression in LLMs30 May 2025
- 2025Towards Harmonized Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Models25 May 2025
12 newest of 15 All 15 (JSON)