mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Finetuning Language Models to Emit Linguistic Expressions of Uncertainty

arXiv 2409.12180 ↗First posted 18 Sep 2024cs.CL cs.LGcited by 25

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Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in information-seeking and decision-making tasks. Despite their broad utility, LLMs tend to generate information that conflicts with real-world facts, and their persuasive style can make these inaccuracies appear confident and convincing. As a result, end-users struggle to consistently align the confidence expressed by LLMs with the accuracy of their predictions, often leading to either blind trust in all outputs or a complete disregard for their reliability. In this work, we explore supervised finetuning on uncertainty-augmented predictions as a method to develop models that produce linguistic expressions of uncertainty. Specifically, we measure the calibration of pre-trained models and then fine-tune language models to generate calibrated linguistic expressions of uncertainty. Through experiments on various question-answering datasets, we demonstrate that LLMs are well-calibrated in assessing their predictions, and supervised finetuning based on the model's own confidence leads to well-calibrated expressions of uncertainty, particularly for single-claim answers.

Key facts. Cited by 25 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 26 of its 34 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 18 Sep 2024.

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26 of 34 references.

References · 26

  1. 2020Language Models are Few-Shot Learnerscited by 32,199
  2. 2023GPT-4 Technical Reportcited by 18,132
  3. 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,192
  4. 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,860
  5. 2022Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Modelscited by 2,927
  6. 2021TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoodscited by 2,919
  7. 2017TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehensioncited by 2,895
  8. 2022Survey of Hallucination in Natural Language Generationcited by 2,056
  9. 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Knowcited by 1,783
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  12. 2019Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methodscited by 903
14 more
  1. 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 788
  2. 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 731
  3. 2021A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networkscited by 675
  4. 2020How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answeringcited by 439
  5. 2020AmbigQA: Answering Ambiguous Open-domain Questionscited by 385
  6. 2020Calibration of Pre-trained Transformerscited by 307
  7. 2023A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 253
  8. 2024Capabilities of Gemini Models in Medicinecited by 231
  9. 2020Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibrationcited by 209
  10. 2024Large Legal Fictions: Profiling Legal Hallucinations in Large Language Modelscited by 144
  11. 2022Explanations Can Reduce Overreliance on AI Systems During Decision-Makingcited by 111
  12. 2023Navigating the Grey Area: How Expressions of Uncertainty and Overconfidence Affect Language Modelscited by 91
  13. 2023Selectively Answering Ambiguous Questionscited by 63
  14. 2024Linguistic Calibration of Long-Form Generationscited by 59

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2024: 1; 2025: 13; 2026: 11.

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  1. 2025Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMscited by 111
  2. 2025Reasoning Models Better Express Their Confidencecited by 63
  3. 2024Knowledge Boundary of Large Language Models: A Surveycited by 36
  4. 2025No Answer Needed: Predicting LLM Answer Accuracy from Question-Only Linear Probescited by 35
  5. 2025Position: Uncertainty Quantification Needs Reassessment for Large-language Model Agentscited by 27
  6. 2025Conformal Linguistic Calibration: Trading-off between Factuality and Specificitycited by 20
  7. 2025MetaFaith: Faithful Natural Language Uncertainty Expression in LLMscited by 15
  8. 2025Anthropomimetic Uncertainty: What Verbalized Uncertainty in Language Models is Missingcited by 14
  9. 2025Teaching Language Models to Faithfully Express their Uncertaintycited by 7
  10. 2025Confidence Elicitation: A New Attack Vector for Large Language Modelscited by 4
  11. 2026Reinforcement Learning with Metacognitive Feedback Elicits Faithful Uncertainty Expression in LLMscited by 4
  12. 2025Towards Harmonized Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Modelscited by 3
13 more
  1. 2026How Reliable are Confidence Estimators for Large Reasoning Models? A Systematic Benchmark on High-Stakes Domainscited by 3
  2. 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQAcited by 3
  3. 2025Investigating Human-Aligned Large Language Model Uncertaintycited by 2
  4. 2026Certainty robustness: Evaluating LLM stability under self-challenging promptscited by 2
  5. 2026Can LLMs Use Linguistic Uncertainty Markers to Reliably Reflect Intrinsic Confidence?cited by 2
  6. 2026SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignmentcited by 2
  7. 2025Thinking About Thinking: Evaluating Reasoning in Post-Trained Language Modelscited by 1
  8. 2026Capability Self-Assessment in Large Language Modelscited by 1
  9. 2025Human-Alignment and Calibration of Inference-Time Uncertainty in Large Language Modelscited by 0
  10. 2026Inducing Artificial Uncertainty in Language Modelscited by 0
  11. 2026Can a Model Catch Its Own Hallucinations for Free?: Label-Free Doubt Signals Hold Their Own Against a Labelled Dataset for Abstentioncited by 0
  12. 2026Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents: A Taxonomy, an Evaluation Protocol, and an Empirical Studycited by 0
  13. 2026"very likely" Means "uncertain"? How LLMs Diverge from Humans in Linguistic Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 0