Do Not Design, Learn: A Trainable Scoring Function for Uncertainty Estimation in Generative LLMs
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Abstract (arXiv)
Uncertainty estimation (UE) of generative large language models (LLMs) is crucial for evaluating the reliability of generated sequences. A significant subset of UE methods utilize token probabilities to assess uncertainty, aggregating multiple token probabilities into a single UE score using a scoring function. Existing scoring functions for probability-based UE, such as length-normalized scoring and semantic contribution-based weighting, are designed to solve certain aspects of the problem but exhibit limitations, including the inability to handle biased probabilities and complex semantic dependencies between tokens. To address these issues, in this work, we propose Learnable Response Scoring (LARS) function, a novel scoring function that leverages supervised data to capture complex dependencies between tokens and probabilities, thereby producing more reliable and calibrated response scores in computing the uncertainty of LLM generations. Our comprehensive experiments across question-answering and arithmetical reasoning tasks with various datasets demonstrate that LARS significantly outperforms existing scoring functions, achieving improvements of up to 16% AUROC score.
Key facts. Cited by 23 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 28 of its 45 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 17 Jun 2024.
Builds on
28 of 45 references.
References · 28
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- 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Knowcited by 1,783
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- 2023The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lyingcited by 644
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- 2024INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detectioncited by 317
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- 2023A Comprehensive Capability Analysis of GPT-3 and GPT-3.5 Series Modelscited by 244
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- 2023Knowing What LLMs DO NOT Know: A Simple Yet Effective Self-Detection Methodcited by 51
- 2024MARS: Meaning-Aware Response Scoring for Uncertainty Estimation in Generative LLMscited by 45
- 2024Think Twice Before Trusting: Self-Detection for Large Language Models through Comprehensive Answer Reflectioncited by 40
- 2023Conformal Autoregressive Generation: Beam Search with Coverage Guaranteescited by 16
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- 2024Rethinking Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs: A Principled Single-Sequence Measurecited by 18
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- 2026TRACE: Single-Pass Decoding-Trace Risk Localization for Generation Calibration28 Sep 2026
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- 2026Balancing Classification and Calibration Performance in Decision-Making LLMs via Calibration Aware Reinforcement Learning19 Jan 2026
- 2025HaluNet: Learning Hallucination Risk from Internal Signals in LLM Question Answering31 Dec 2025
- 2025HARMONY: Hidden Activation Representations and Model Output-Aware Uncertainty Estimation for Vision-Language Models25 Oct 2025
- 2025Uncertainty Quantification for Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models: Foundations, Methodology, and Future Directions14 Oct 2025
- 2025Uncertainty Quantification for Retrieval-Augmented Reasoning13 Oct 2025
- 2025SIMBA UQ: Similarity-Based Aggregation for Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models10 Oct 2025
11 more
- 2025Uncertainty as Feature Gaps: Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification of LLMs in Contextual Question-Answering3 Oct 2025
- 2025Noise, Adaptation, and Strategy: Assessing LLM Fidelity in Decision-Making21 Aug 2025
- 2025TruthTorchLM: A Comprehensive Library for Predicting Truthfulness in LLM Outputs10 Jul 2025
- 2025Probabilistic distances-based hallucination detection in LLMs with RAG11 Jun 2025
- 2025From Calibration to Collaboration: LLM Uncertainty Quantification Should Be More Human-Centered9 Jun 2025
- 2025Reconsidering LLM Uncertainty Estimation Methods in the Wild1 Jun 2025
- 2025Un-considering Contextual Information: Assessing LLMs' Understanding of Indexical Elements1 Jun 2025
- 2025Towards Harmonized Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Models25 May 2025
- 2025Leveraging Uncertainty Estimation for Efficient LLM Routing16 Feb 2025
- 2024Rethinking Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs: A Principled Single-Sequence Measure19 Dec 2024
- 2024Probing LLM Hallucination from Within: Perturbation-Driven Approach via Internal Knowledge14 Nov 2024
- 2025HARMONY: Hidden Activation Representations and Model Output-Aware Uncertainty Estimation for Vision-Language Modelscited by 3
- 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQAcited by 3
- 2026Uncertainty Quantification for Multimodal Retrieval Augmented Generationcited by 0
- 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA25 Jun 2026
- 2026Uncertainty Quantification for Multimodal Retrieval Augmented Generation28 May 2026
- 2025HARMONY: Hidden Activation Representations and Model Output-Aware Uncertainty Estimation for Vision-Language Models25 Oct 2025
- 2025Reconsidering LLM Uncertainty Estimation Methods in the Wildcited by 17
- 2025Leveraging Uncertainty Estimation for Efficient LLM Routingcited by 21
- 2025From Calibration to Collaboration: LLM Uncertainty Quantification Should Be More Human-Centeredcited by 21
- 2025Uncertainty Quantification for Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models: Foundations, Methodology, and Future Directionscited by 10
- 2025Uncertainty as Feature Gaps: Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification of LLMs in Contextual Question-Answeringcited by 6
- 2025TruthTorchLM: A Comprehensive Library for Predicting Truthfulness in LLM Outputscited by 4
- 2025Noise, Adaptation, and Strategy: Assessing LLM Fidelity in Decision-Makingcited by 4
- 2026Semantic Self-Distillation for Language Model Uncertaintycited by 4
- 2025Towards Harmonized Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Modelscited by 3
- 2024Probing LLM Hallucination from Within: Perturbation-Driven Approach via Internal Knowledgecited by 2
- 2025SIMBA UQ: Similarity-Based Aggregation for Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Modelscited by 2
- 2025HaluNet: Learning Hallucination Risk from Internal Signals in LLM Question Answeringcited by 2
- 2026Balancing Classification and Calibration Performance in Decision-Making LLMs via Calibration Aware Reinforcement Learningcited by 1
12 most cited of 16 All 16 (JSON)
- 2026TRACE: Single-Pass Decoding-Trace Risk Localization for Generation Calibration28 Sep 2026
- 2026Knowledge Dependency Estimation for Reliable Question Answering27 May 2026
- 2026Confident in a Confidence Score: Investigating the Sensitivity of Confidence Scores to Supervised Fine-Tuning10 Apr 2026
- 2026Semantic Self-Distillation for Language Model Uncertainty4 Feb 2026
- 2026Balancing Classification and Calibration Performance in Decision-Making LLMs via Calibration Aware Reinforcement Learning19 Jan 2026
- 2025HaluNet: Learning Hallucination Risk from Internal Signals in LLM Question Answering31 Dec 2025
- 2025Uncertainty Quantification for Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models: Foundations, Methodology, and Future Directions14 Oct 2025
- 2025SIMBA UQ: Similarity-Based Aggregation for Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models10 Oct 2025
- 2025Uncertainty as Feature Gaps: Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification of LLMs in Contextual Question-Answering3 Oct 2025
- 2025Noise, Adaptation, and Strategy: Assessing LLM Fidelity in Decision-Making21 Aug 2025
- 2025TruthTorchLM: A Comprehensive Library for Predicting Truthfulness in LLM Outputs10 Jul 2025
- 2025From Calibration to Collaboration: LLM Uncertainty Quantification Should Be More Human-Centered9 Jun 2025
12 newest of 16 All 16 (JSON)