Mitigating Metropolitan Carbon Emissions with Dynamic Eco-driving at Scale

The sheer scale and diversity of transportation make it a formidable sector to decarbonize. Here, we consider an emerging opportunity to reduce carbon emissions: the growing adoption of semi-autonomous vehicles, which can be programmed to mitigate stop-and-go traffic through intelligent speed commands and, thus, reduce emissions. But would such dynamic eco-driving move the needle on climate change? A comprehensive impact analysis has been out of reach due to the vast array of traffic scenarios and the complexity of vehicle emissions. We address this challenge with large-scale scenario modeling efforts and by using multi-task deep reinforcement learning with a carefully designed network decomposition strategy. We perform an in-depth prospective impact assessment of dynamic eco-driving at 6,011 signalized intersections across three major US metropolitan cities, simulating a million traffic scenarios. Overall, we find that vehicle trajectories optimized for emissions can cut city-wide intersection carbon emissions by 11-22%, without harming throughput or safety, and with reasonable assumptions, equivalent to the national emissions of Israel and Nigeria, respectively. We find that 10% eco-driving adoption yields 25%-50% of the total reduction, and nearly 70% of the benefits come from 20% of intersections, suggesting near-term implementation pathways. However, the composition of this high-impact subset of intersections varies considerably across different adoption levels, with minimal overlap, calling for careful strategic planning for eco-driving deployments. Moreover, the impact of eco-driving, when considered jointly with projections of vehicle electrification and hybrid vehicle adoption remains significant. More broadly, this work paves the way for large-scale analysis of traffic externalities, such as time, safety, and air quality, and the potential impact of solution strategies.