mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Addressing Misspecification in Simulation-based Inference through Data-driven Calibration

arXiv 2405.08719 ↗First posted 14 May 2024stat.ML cs.LG stat.MEcited by 27

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Abstract (arXiv)

Driven by steady progress in deep generative modeling, simulation-based inference (SBI) has emerged as the workhorse for inferring the parameters of stochastic simulators. However, recent work has demonstrated that model misspecification can compromise the reliability of SBI, preventing its adoption in important applications where only misspecified simulators are available. This work introduces robust posterior estimation~(RoPE), a framework that overcomes model misspecification with a small real-world calibration set of ground-truth parameter measurements. We formalize the misspecification gap as the solution of an optimal transport~(OT) problem between learned representations of real-world and simulated observations, allowing RoPE to learn a model of the misspecification without placing additional assumptions on its nature. RoPE demonstrates how OT and a calibration set provide a controllable balance between calibrated uncertainty and informative inference, even under severely misspecified simulators. Results on four synthetic tasks and two real-world problems with ground-truth labels demonstrate that RoPE outperforms baselines and consistently returns informative and calibrated credible intervals.

Key facts. Cited by 27 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 44 of its 70 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 14 May 2024.

Builds on

44 of 70 references.

References · 44

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32 more
  1. 2017Flexible statistical inference for mechanistic models of neural dynamicscited by 163
  2. 2021Benchmarking Simulation-Based Inferencecited by 162
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  15. 2022Robust Neural Posterior Estimation and Statistical Model Criticismcited by 46
  16. 2022Investigating the Impact of Model Misspecification in Neural Simulation-based Inferencecited by 45
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  18. 2022Robust Bayesian Inference for Simulator-based Models via the MMD Posterior Bootstrapcited by 41
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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2024: 2; 2025: 15; 2026: 10.

27 papers.

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  1. 2025Simulation-Based Inference: A Practical Guidecited by 32
  2. 2025Robust Amortized Bayesian Inference with Self-Consistency Losses on Unlabeled Datacited by 11
  3. 2025Does Unsupervised Domain Adaptation Improve the Robustness of Amortized Bayesian Inference? A Systematic Evaluationcited by 10
  4. 2025Multifidelity Simulation-based Inference for Computationally Expensive Simulatorscited by 9
  5. 2025Simulation-based Bayesian inference under model misspecificationcited by 9
  6. 2025G-Sim: Generative Simulations with Large Language Models and Gradient-Free Calibrationcited by 8
  7. 2025CP4SBI: Local Conformal Calibration of Credible Sets in Simulation-Based Inferencecited by 6
  8. 2024Tests for model misspecification in simulation-based inference: from local distortions to global model checkscited by 4
  9. 2025Inductive Domain Transfer In Misspecified Simulation-Based Inferencecited by 4
  10. 2025Flow Matching Calibration for Simulation-Based Inference under Model Misspecificationcited by 2
  11. 2025Inferring Optical Tissue Properties from Photoplethysmography using Hybrid Amortized Inferencecited by 2
  12. 2025Synthesizing 3D Abstractions by Inverting Procedural Buildings with Transformerscited by 1
15 more
  1. 2025Simulation-based population inference of LISA's Galactic binaries: Bypassing the global fitcited by 1
  2. 2025Trustworthy scientific inference with generative modelscited by 1
  3. 2026An Introduction to Bayesian and Frequentist Simulation-Based Inference with Machine Learningcited by 1
  4. 2026Unknown Unknowns: Model Misspecification in Machine Learning for Physicscited by 1
  5. 2026PosteriorBench: From Point Estimates to Posterior Matching in Evaluating Generative Inverse Solverscited by 1
  6. 2024Calibrated Multivariate Regression with Localized PIT Mappingscited by 0
  7. 2025Deep Neural Network Driven Simulation Based Inference Method for Pole Position Estimation under Model Misspecificationcited by 0
  8. 2025Misspecification-robust amortised simulation-based inference using variational methodscited by 0
  9. 2026Sharpness-Aware Hybrid Model Learning for Architecture-Agnostic Parameter Estimationcited by 0
  10. 2026Preconditioned Robust Neural Posterior Estimation for Misspecified Simulatorscited by 0
  11. 2026Unsupervised Continual Learning for Amortized Bayesian Inferencecited by 0
  12. 2026Information-Preserving Domain Transfer with Unlabeled Data in Misspecified Simulation-Based Inferencecited by 0
  13. 2026MA-SBI: Misspecification-Aware Simulation-Based Inference via Side-Channel Guidancecited by 0
  14. 2026Simulation-Based Quantum System Inference with Neural Posterior Estimationcited by 0
  15. 2026A Missing Latent, Not a Missing Simulator: Radius-Augmented Inference for Real JWST Retrievalcited by 0