mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Simulation-based population inference of LISA's Galactic binaries: Bypassing the global fit

arXiv 2506.22543 ↗First posted 27 Jun 2025astro-ph.GA gr-qc stat.MLcited by 1

Not on the map. Why?

Abstract (arXiv)

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is expected to detect thousands of individually resolved gravitational wave sources, overlapping in time and frequency, on top of unresolved astrophysical and/or primordial backgrounds. Disentangling resolved sources from backgrounds and extracting their parameters in a computationally intensive "global fit" is normally regarded as a necessary step toward reconstructing the properties of the underlying astrophysical populations. Here, we show that it is in principle feasible to infer the population properties of the most numerous of LISA sources -- Galactic double white dwarfs -- directly from the frequency (or, equivalently, time) strain series by adopting a simulation-based approach, without extracting and estimating the parameters of each single source. By training a normalizing flow on a custom-designed compression of simulated LISA frequency series from the Galactic double white dwarf population, we demonstrate how to infer the posterior distribution of population parameters (e.g., mass function, frequency, and spatial distributions). This allows for extracting information on the population parameters from both resolved and unresolved sources simultaneously and in a computationally efficient manner. This approach can be extended to other source classes (e.g., massive and stellar-mass black holes, extreme mass ratio inspirals) and to scenarios involving non-Gaussian or non-stationary noise (e.g., data gaps), provided that fast and accurate simulations are available.

Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 9 of its 68 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 27 Jun 2025.

Builds on

9 of 68 references.

References · 9

  1. 2017Masked Autoregressive Flow for Density Estimationcited by 684
  2. 2019The frontier of simulation-based inferencecited by 502
  3. 2018Sequential Neural Likelihood: Fast Likelihood-free Inference with Autoregressive Flowscited by 221
  4. 2018Validating Bayesian Inference Algorithms with Simulation-Based Calibrationcited by 124
  5. 2021Detecting Model Misspecification in Amortized Bayesian Inference with Neural Networkscited by 49
  6. 2023Learning Robust Statistics for Simulation-based Inference under Model Misspecificationcited by 48
  7. 2021Truncated Marginal Neural Ratio Estimationcited by 30
  8. 2024Addressing Misspecification in Simulation-based Inference through Data-driven Calibrationcited by 27
  9. 2024Tests for model misspecification in simulation-based inference: from local distortions to global model checkscited by 4

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2026: 1.

1 paper.