Generating Likely Counterfactuals Using Sum-Product Networks
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Abstract (arXiv)
The need to explain decisions made by AI systems is driven by both recent regulation and user demand. The decisions are often explainable only post hoc. In counterfactual explanations, one may ask what constitutes the best counterfactual explanation. Clearly, multiple criteria must be taken into account, although "distance from the sample" is a key criterion. Recent methods that consider the plausibility of a counterfactual seem to sacrifice this original objective. Here, we present a system that provides high-likelihood explanations that are, at the same time, close and sparse. We show that the search for the most likely explanations satisfying many common desiderata for counterfactual explanations can be modeled using Mixed-Integer Optimization (MIO). We use a Sum-Product Network (SPN) to estimate the likelihood of a counterfactual. To achieve that, we propose an MIO formulation of an SPN, which can be of independent interest. The source code with examples is available at https://github.com/Epanemu/LiCE.
Key facts. Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 31 of its 73 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 25 Jan 2024.
Builds on
31 of 73 references.
References · 31
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19 more
- 2021CARLA: A Python Library to Benchmark Algorithmic Recourse and Counterfactual Explanation Algorithmscited by 86
- 2021Evaluating Robustness of Counterfactual Explanationscited by 41
- 2023When Deep Learning Meets Polyhedral Theory: A Surveycited by 39
- 2021Optimal Counterfactual Explanations in Tree Ensemblescited by 36
- 2022OMLT: Optimization & Machine Learning Toolkitcited by 35
- 2020Convex Density Constraints for Computing Plausible Counterfactual Explanationscited by 32
- 2022Diffeomorphic Counterfactuals with Generative Modelscited by 29
- 2019SPFlow: An Easy and Extensible Library for Deep Probabilistic Learning using Sum-Product Networkscited by 26
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Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2025: 3; 2026: 3.
6 papers.
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- 2025Tractable Probabilistic Models for Investment Planningcited by 0
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- 2026A Compositional Theory of Curvature in Probabilistic Circuitscited by 0
- 2026A Compositional Theory of Curvature in Probabilistic Circuits13 Aug 2026
- 2026Diverse and Plausible Algorithmic Recourse via Tractable Recourse Distributions5 Aug 2026
- 2026PAR: Plausibility-aware Amortized Recourse Generation24 Jan 2026
- 2025Tractable Probabilistic Models for Investment Planning17 Nov 2025
- 2025Constraint-Reduced MILP with Local Outlier Factor Modeling for Plausible Counterfactual Explanations in Credit Approval23 Sep 2025
- 2025Counterfactual Explanations in Medical Imaging: Exploring SPN-Guided Latent Space Manipulation25 Jul 2025