mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Reasoning about Causality in Games

arXiv 2301.02324 ↗First posted 5 Jan 2023cs.AI cs.GT cs.MAcited by 20

On the map: LLM reasoning → Causal reasoning in LLMs

Abstract (arXiv)

Causal reasoning and game-theoretic reasoning are fundamental topics in artificial intelligence, among many other disciplines: this paper is concerned with their intersection. Despite their importance, a formal framework that supports both these forms of reasoning has, until now, been lacking. We offer a solution in the form of (structural) causal games, which can be seen as extending Pearl's causal hierarchy to the game-theoretic domain, or as extending Koller and Milch's multi-agent influence diagrams to the causal domain. We then consider three key questions: i) How can the (causal) dependencies in games - either between variables, or between strategies - be modelled in a uniform, principled manner? ii) How may causal queries be computed in causal games, and what assumptions does this require? iii) How do causal games compare to existing formalisms? To address question i), we introduce mechanised games, which encode dependencies between agents' decision rules and the distributions governing the game. In response to question ii), we present definitions of predictions, interventions, and counterfactuals, and discuss the assumptions required for each. Regarding question iii), we describe correspondences between causal games and other formalisms, and explain how causal games can be used to answer queries that other causal or game-theoretic models do not support. Finally, we highlight possible applications of causal games, aided by an extensive open-source Python library.

Key facts. Cited by 20 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in Causal reasoning in LLMs, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 7 of its 39 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 5 Jan 2023.

Builds on

7 of 39 references.

References · 7

  1. 2017Fair Inference On Outcomescited by 143
  2. 2021Agent Incentives: A Causal Perspectivecited by 51
  3. 2018Towards Formal Definitions of Blameworthiness, Intention, and Moral Responsibilitycited by 32
  4. 2019Blameworthiness in Multi-Agent Settingscited by 11
  5. 2021How RL Agents Behave When Their Actions Are Modifiedcited by 10
  6. 2022Why Fair Labels Can Yield Unfair Predictions: Graphical Conditions for Introduced Unfairnesscited by 10
  7. 2014Networks of Influence Diagrams: A Formalism for Representing Agents' Beliefs and Decision-Making Processescited by 4

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2023: 7; 2024: 4; 2025: 4; 2026: 5.

20 papers.

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  1. 2025Open Challenges in Multi-Agent Security: Towards Secure Systems of Interacting AI Agentscited by 66
  2. 2023Honesty Is the Best Policy: Defining and Mitigating AI Deceptioncited by 40
  3. 2024AI Alignment with Changing and Influenceable Reward Functionscited by 33
  4. 2023Causal Reasoning: Charting a Revolutionary Course for Next-Generation AI-Native Wireless Networkscited by 16
  5. 2024From Imitation to Introspection: Probing Self-Consciousness in Language Modelscited by 14
  6. 2025ExoPredicator: Learning Abstract Models of Dynamic Worlds for Robot Planningcited by 8
  7. 2023MACCA: Offline Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning with Causal Credit Assignmentcited by 6
  8. 2023Intent-aligned AI systems deplete human agency: the need for agency foundations research in AI safetycited by 4
  9. 2023On Imperfect Recall in Multi-Agent Influence Diagramscited by 4
  10. 2023Characterising Decision Theories with Mechanised Causal Graphscited by 3
  11. 2025A Principle of Targeted Intervention for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learningcited by 3
  12. 2026From Gameplay Traces to Game Mechanics: Causal Induction with Large Language Modelscited by 2
8 more
  1. 2024Attaining Human`s Desirable Outcomes in Human-AI Interaction via Structural Causal Gamescited by 1
  2. 2023Experiments with Detecting and Mitigating AI Deceptioncited by 0
  3. 2024Characterising Interventions in Causal Gamescited by 0
  4. 2025Graphical Models for Decision-Making: Integrating Causality and Game Theorycited by 0
  5. 2026Causal Foundations of Collective Agencycited by 0
  6. 2026A Knowledge-Based Multi-Agent Framework for Security Control Recommendationcited by 0
  7. 2026Equilibrium Causal Games: Separation, Identification, and the Identifiability of Cyclic Latent Statescited by 0
  8. 2026Compiling VGDL into Causal Modelscited by 0

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2025Sequential Causal Normal Form Games: Theory, Computation, and Strategic Signaling ↗
  2. 2022Causal Explanations for Sequential Decision Making Under Uncertainty
  3. 2026CausalGame: Benchmarking Causal Thinking of LLM Agents in Games
  4. 2026An Introduction to Causal Reinforcement Learning
  5. 2022Markov categories, causal theories, and the do-calculus
  6. 2023Axiomatizations of causal reasoning under indeterministic causal laws
  7. 2025Causality and Decision-making: A Logical Framework for Systems and Security Modelling ↗
  8. 2026Toward a Causal Data Management Ecosystem for Decision Making and Agentic AI