Learning Curves for Decision Making in Supervised Machine Learning: A Survey
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Abstract (arXiv)
Learning curves are a concept from social sciences that has been adopted in the context of machine learning to assess the performance of a learning algorithm with respect to a certain resource, e.g., the number of training examples or the number of training iterations. Learning curves have important applications in several machine learning contexts, most notably in data acquisition, early stopping of model training, and model selection. For instance, learning curves can be used to model the performance of the combination of an algorithm and its hyperparameter configuration, providing insights into their potential suitability at an early stage and often expediting the algorithm selection process. Various learning curve models have been proposed to use learning curves for decision making. Some of these models answer the binary decision question of whether a given algorithm at a certain budget will outperform a certain reference performance, whereas more complex models predict the entire learning curve of an algorithm. We contribute a framework that categorises learning curve approaches using three criteria: the decision-making situation they address, the intrinsic learning curve question they answer and the type of resources they use. We survey papers from the literature and classify them into this framework.
Key facts. Cited by 27 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 18 of its 87 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 28 Jan 2022.
Builds on
18 of 87 references.
References · 18
- 2019Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methodscited by 903
- 2016Hyperband: A Novel Bandit-Based Approach to Hyperparameter Optimizationcited by 688
- 2019Deep Double Descent: Where Bigger Models and More Data Hurtcited by 667
- 2015Non-stochastic Best Arm Identification and Hyperparameter Optimizationcited by 219
- 2016Fast Bayesian Optimization of Machine Learning Hyperparameters on Large Datasetscited by 131
- 2020Optimal Regularization Can Mitigate Double Descentcited by 107
- 2014Freeze-Thaw Bayesian Optimizationcited by 86
- 2021The Shape of Learning Curves: a Reviewcited by 67
- 2015How much data is needed to train a medical image deep learning system to achieve necessary high accuracy?cited by 45
- 2020Small Data, Big Decisions: Model Selection in the Small-Data Regimecited by 23
- 2021Fast and Informative Model Selection using Learning Curve Cross-Validationcited by 15
- 2015Selecting Near-Optimal Learners via Incremental Data Allocationcited by 12
6 more
- 2019Minimizers of the Empirical Risk and Risk Monotonicitycited by 11
- 2020Risk-Monotonicity in Statistical Learningcited by 9
- 2019Making Learners (More) Monotonecited by 6
- 2018Progressive Sampling-Based Bayesian Optimization for Efficient and Automatic Machine Learning Model Selectioncited by 5
- 2021Recommending Training Set Sizes for Classificationcited by 2
- 2019Inductive Transfer for Neural Architecture Optimizationcited by 1
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Citing papers per year: 2022: 5; 2023: 8; 2024: 7; 2025: 6; 2026: 1.
27 papers.
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- 2023Efficient Bayesian Learning Curve Extrapolation using Prior-Data Fitted Networkscited by 37
- 2023Artificial intelligence to advance Earth observation: : A review of models, recent trends, and pathways forwardcited by 28
- 2023Scaling Laws for Hyperparameter Optimizationcited by 16
- 2022PASHA: Efficient HPO and NAS with Progressive Resource Allocationcited by 13
- 2023Optimizing Hyperparameters with Conformal Quantile Regressioncited by 10
- 2023Interactive Hyperparameter Optimization in Multi-Objective Problems via Preference Learningcited by 8
- 2022Hyperparameter Importance of Quantum Neural Networks Across Small Datasetscited by 7
- 2023Multi-Fidelity Multi-Armed Bandits Revisitedcited by 6
- 2023Is One Epoch All You Need For Multi-Fidelity Hyperparameter Optimization?cited by 6
- 2024Keeping Deep Learning Models in Check: A History-Based Approach to Mitigate Overfittingcited by 6
- 2025Beyond the Single-Best Model: Rashomon Partial Dependence Profile for Trustworthy Explanations in AutoMLcited by 6
- 2024The Unreasonable Effectiveness Of Early Discarding After One Epoch In Neural Network Hyperparameter Optimizationcited by 5
15 more
- 2024Unraveling overoptimism and publication bias in ML-driven sciencecited by 3
- 2024MD tree: a model-diagnostic tree grown on loss landscapecited by 3
- 2022Towards Meta-learned Algorithm Selection using Implicit Fidelity Informationcited by 2
- 2022A Survey of Learning Curves with Bad Behavior: or How More Data Need Not Lead to Better Performancecited by 2
- 2025AGTCNet: A Graph-Temporal Approach for Principled Motor Imagery EEG Classificationcited by 2
- 2025Zero-Shot Performance Prediction for Probabilistic Scaling Lawscited by 2
- 2022Meta-learning from Learning Curves Challenge: Lessons learned from the First Round and Design of the Second Roundcited by 1
- 2023Learning to Rank Normalized Entropy Curves with Differentiable Window Transformationcited by 1
- 2025LCDB 1.1: A Database Illustrating Learning Curves Are More Ill-Behaved Than Previously Thoughtcited by 1
- 2024AI Competitions and Benchmarks: Dataset Developmentcited by 0
- 2024Meta-Learning from Learning Curves for Budget-Limited Algorithm Selectioncited by 0
- 2024PyAWD: A Library for Generating Large Synthetic Datasets of Acoustic Wave Propagationcited by 0
- 2025Bayesian Neural Scaling Law Extrapolation with Prior-Data Fitted Networkscited by 0
- 2025Characterization of Transfer Using Multi-task Learning Curvescited by 0
- 2026Towards Scaling Law Analysis For Spatiotemporal Weather Datacited by 0
- 2026Towards Scaling Law Analysis For Spatiotemporal Weather Data6 Apr 2026
- 2025Characterization of Transfer Using Multi-task Learning Curves31 Dec 2025
- 2025Zero-Shot Performance Prediction for Probabilistic Scaling Laws19 Oct 2025
- 2025Beyond the Single-Best Model: Rashomon Partial Dependence Profile for Trustworthy Explanations in AutoML19 Jul 2025
- 2025AGTCNet: A Graph-Temporal Approach for Principled Motor Imagery EEG Classification26 Jun 2025
- 2025Bayesian Neural Scaling Law Extrapolation with Prior-Data Fitted Networks29 May 2025
- 2025LCDB 1.1: A Database Illustrating Learning Curves Are More Ill-Behaved Than Previously Thought21 May 2025
- 2024PyAWD: A Library for Generating Large Synthetic Datasets of Acoustic Wave Propagation19 Nov 2024
- 2024Meta-Learning from Learning Curves for Budget-Limited Algorithm Selection10 Oct 2024
- 2024MD tree: a model-diagnostic tree grown on loss landscape24 Jun 2024
- 2024Unraveling overoptimism and publication bias in ML-driven science23 May 2024
- 2024AI Competitions and Benchmarks: Dataset Development15 Apr 2024
15 more
- 2024The Unreasonable Effectiveness Of Early Discarding After One Epoch In Neural Network Hyperparameter Optimization5 Apr 2024
- 2024Keeping Deep Learning Models in Check: A History-Based Approach to Mitigate Overfitting18 Jan 2024
- 2023Efficient Bayesian Learning Curve Extrapolation using Prior-Data Fitted Networks31 Oct 2023
- 2023Interactive Hyperparameter Optimization in Multi-Objective Problems via Preference Learning7 Sep 2023
- 2023Is One Epoch All You Need For Multi-Fidelity Hyperparameter Optimization?28 Jul 2023
- 2023Multi-Fidelity Multi-Armed Bandits Revisited13 Jun 2023
- 2023Artificial intelligence to advance Earth observation: : A review of models, recent trends, and pathways forward15 May 2023
- 2023Optimizing Hyperparameters with Conformal Quantile Regression5 May 2023
- 2023Scaling Laws for Hyperparameter Optimization1 Feb 2023
- 2023Learning to Rank Normalized Entropy Curves with Differentiable Window Transformation25 Jan 2023
- 2022A Survey of Learning Curves with Bad Behavior: or How More Data Need Not Lead to Better Performance25 Nov 2022
- 2022Meta-learning from Learning Curves Challenge: Lessons learned from the First Round and Design of the Second Round4 Aug 2022
- 2022PASHA: Efficient HPO and NAS with Progressive Resource Allocation14 Jul 2022
- 2022Hyperparameter Importance of Quantum Neural Networks Across Small Datasets20 Jun 2022
- 2022Towards Meta-learned Algorithm Selection using Implicit Fidelity Information7 Jun 2022
- 2023Efficient Bayesian Learning Curve Extrapolation using Prior-Data Fitted Networkscited by 37
- 2023Artificial intelligence to advance Earth observation: : A review of models, recent trends, and pathways forwardcited by 28
- 2023Scaling Laws for Hyperparameter Optimizationcited by 16
- 2022PASHA: Efficient HPO and NAS with Progressive Resource Allocationcited by 13
- 2023Optimizing Hyperparameters with Conformal Quantile Regressioncited by 10
- 2023Interactive Hyperparameter Optimization in Multi-Objective Problems via Preference Learningcited by 8
- 2022Hyperparameter Importance of Quantum Neural Networks Across Small Datasetscited by 7
- 2023Multi-Fidelity Multi-Armed Bandits Revisitedcited by 6
- 2023Is One Epoch All You Need For Multi-Fidelity Hyperparameter Optimization?cited by 6
- 2024Keeping Deep Learning Models in Check: A History-Based Approach to Mitigate Overfittingcited by 6
- 2025Beyond the Single-Best Model: Rashomon Partial Dependence Profile for Trustworthy Explanations in AutoMLcited by 6
- 2024The Unreasonable Effectiveness Of Early Discarding After One Epoch In Neural Network Hyperparameter Optimizationcited by 5
12 most cited of 27 All 27 (JSON)
- 2026Towards Scaling Law Analysis For Spatiotemporal Weather Data6 Apr 2026
- 2025Characterization of Transfer Using Multi-task Learning Curves31 Dec 2025
- 2025Zero-Shot Performance Prediction for Probabilistic Scaling Laws19 Oct 2025
- 2025Beyond the Single-Best Model: Rashomon Partial Dependence Profile for Trustworthy Explanations in AutoML19 Jul 2025
- 2025AGTCNet: A Graph-Temporal Approach for Principled Motor Imagery EEG Classification26 Jun 2025
- 2025Bayesian Neural Scaling Law Extrapolation with Prior-Data Fitted Networks29 May 2025
- 2025LCDB 1.1: A Database Illustrating Learning Curves Are More Ill-Behaved Than Previously Thought21 May 2025
- 2024PyAWD: A Library for Generating Large Synthetic Datasets of Acoustic Wave Propagation19 Nov 2024
- 2024Meta-Learning from Learning Curves for Budget-Limited Algorithm Selection10 Oct 2024
- 2024MD tree: a model-diagnostic tree grown on loss landscape24 Jun 2024
- 2024Unraveling overoptimism and publication bias in ML-driven science23 May 2024
- 2024AI Competitions and Benchmarks: Dataset Development15 Apr 2024
12 newest of 27 All 27 (JSON)