mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Learning Curves for Decision Making in Supervised Machine Learning: A Survey

arXiv 2201.12150 ↗First posted 28 Jan 2022cs.LGcited by 27

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Abstract (arXiv)

Learning curves are a concept from social sciences that has been adopted in the context of machine learning to assess the performance of a learning algorithm with respect to a certain resource, e.g., the number of training examples or the number of training iterations. Learning curves have important applications in several machine learning contexts, most notably in data acquisition, early stopping of model training, and model selection. For instance, learning curves can be used to model the performance of the combination of an algorithm and its hyperparameter configuration, providing insights into their potential suitability at an early stage and often expediting the algorithm selection process. Various learning curve models have been proposed to use learning curves for decision making. Some of these models answer the binary decision question of whether a given algorithm at a certain budget will outperform a certain reference performance, whereas more complex models predict the entire learning curve of an algorithm. We contribute a framework that categorises learning curve approaches using three criteria: the decision-making situation they address, the intrinsic learning curve question they answer and the type of resources they use. We survey papers from the literature and classify them into this framework.

Key facts. Cited by 27 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 18 of its 87 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 28 Jan 2022.

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18 of 87 references.

References · 18

  1. 2019Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methodscited by 903
  2. 2016Hyperband: A Novel Bandit-Based Approach to Hyperparameter Optimizationcited by 688
  3. 2019Deep Double Descent: Where Bigger Models and More Data Hurtcited by 667
  4. 2015Non-stochastic Best Arm Identification and Hyperparameter Optimizationcited by 219
  5. 2016Fast Bayesian Optimization of Machine Learning Hyperparameters on Large Datasetscited by 131
  6. 2020Optimal Regularization Can Mitigate Double Descentcited by 107
  7. 2014Freeze-Thaw Bayesian Optimizationcited by 86
  8. 2021The Shape of Learning Curves: a Reviewcited by 67
  9. 2015How much data is needed to train a medical image deep learning system to achieve necessary high accuracy?cited by 45
  10. 2020Small Data, Big Decisions: Model Selection in the Small-Data Regimecited by 23
  11. 2021Fast and Informative Model Selection using Learning Curve Cross-Validationcited by 15
  12. 2015Selecting Near-Optimal Learners via Incremental Data Allocationcited by 12
6 more
  1. 2019Minimizers of the Empirical Risk and Risk Monotonicitycited by 11
  2. 2020Risk-Monotonicity in Statistical Learningcited by 9
  3. 2019Making Learners (More) Monotonecited by 6
  4. 2018Progressive Sampling-Based Bayesian Optimization for Efficient and Automatic Machine Learning Model Selectioncited by 5
  5. 2021Recommending Training Set Sizes for Classificationcited by 2
  6. 2019Inductive Transfer for Neural Architecture Optimizationcited by 1

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2022: 5; 2023: 8; 2024: 7; 2025: 6; 2026: 1.

27 papers.

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  1. 2023Efficient Bayesian Learning Curve Extrapolation using Prior-Data Fitted Networkscited by 37
  2. 2023Artificial intelligence to advance Earth observation: : A review of models, recent trends, and pathways forwardcited by 28
  3. 2023Scaling Laws for Hyperparameter Optimizationcited by 16
  4. 2022PASHA: Efficient HPO and NAS with Progressive Resource Allocationcited by 13
  5. 2023Optimizing Hyperparameters with Conformal Quantile Regressioncited by 10
  6. 2023Interactive Hyperparameter Optimization in Multi-Objective Problems via Preference Learningcited by 8
  7. 2022Hyperparameter Importance of Quantum Neural Networks Across Small Datasetscited by 7
  8. 2023Multi-Fidelity Multi-Armed Bandits Revisitedcited by 6
  9. 2023Is One Epoch All You Need For Multi-Fidelity Hyperparameter Optimization?cited by 6
  10. 2024Keeping Deep Learning Models in Check: A History-Based Approach to Mitigate Overfittingcited by 6
  11. 2025Beyond the Single-Best Model: Rashomon Partial Dependence Profile for Trustworthy Explanations in AutoMLcited by 6
  12. 2024The Unreasonable Effectiveness Of Early Discarding After One Epoch In Neural Network Hyperparameter Optimizationcited by 5
15 more
  1. 2024Unraveling overoptimism and publication bias in ML-driven sciencecited by 3
  2. 2024MD tree: a model-diagnostic tree grown on loss landscapecited by 3
  3. 2022Towards Meta-learned Algorithm Selection using Implicit Fidelity Informationcited by 2
  4. 2022A Survey of Learning Curves with Bad Behavior: or How More Data Need Not Lead to Better Performancecited by 2
  5. 2025AGTCNet: A Graph-Temporal Approach for Principled Motor Imagery EEG Classificationcited by 2
  6. 2025Zero-Shot Performance Prediction for Probabilistic Scaling Lawscited by 2
  7. 2022Meta-learning from Learning Curves Challenge: Lessons learned from the First Round and Design of the Second Roundcited by 1
  8. 2023Learning to Rank Normalized Entropy Curves with Differentiable Window Transformationcited by 1
  9. 2025LCDB 1.1: A Database Illustrating Learning Curves Are More Ill-Behaved Than Previously Thoughtcited by 1
  10. 2024AI Competitions and Benchmarks: Dataset Developmentcited by 0
  11. 2024Meta-Learning from Learning Curves for Budget-Limited Algorithm Selectioncited by 0
  12. 2024PyAWD: A Library for Generating Large Synthetic Datasets of Acoustic Wave Propagationcited by 0
  13. 2025Bayesian Neural Scaling Law Extrapolation with Prior-Data Fitted Networkscited by 0
  14. 2025Characterization of Transfer Using Multi-task Learning Curvescited by 0
  15. 2026Towards Scaling Law Analysis For Spatiotemporal Weather Datacited by 0