The phase transition for the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate in high-dimensional logistic regression
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Abstract (arXiv)
This paper rigorously establishes that the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) in high-dimensional logistic regression models with Gaussian covariates undergoes a sharp `phase transition'. We introduce an explicit boundary curve hMLE, parameterized by two scalars measuring the overall magnitude of the unknown sequence of regression coefficients, with the following property: in the limit of large sample sizes n and number of features p proportioned in such a way that p/n rightarrow kappa, we show that if the problem is sufficiently high dimensional in the sense that kappa > hMLE, then the MLE does not exist with probability one. Conversely, if kappa < hMLE, the MLE asymptotically exists with probability one.
Key facts. Cited by 45 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 25 Apr 2018.
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Citing papers per year: 2021: 10; 2022: 9; 2023: 10; 2024: 9; 2025: 5; 2026: 2.
45 papers.
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- 2021Learning curves of generic features maps for realistic datasets with a teacher-student modelcited by 126
- 2021Label-Imbalanced and Group-Sensitive Classification under Overparameterizationcited by 74
- 2021Learning Gaussian Mixtures with Generalised Linear Models: Precise Asymptotics in High-dimensionscited by 52
- 2021A unifying tutorial on Approximate Message Passingcited by 49
- 2021Don't Just Blame Over-parametrization for Over-confidence: Theoretical Analysis of Calibration in Binary Classificationcited by 39
- 2023Universality laws for Gaussian mixtures in generalized linear modelscited by 28
- 2022Gaussian Universality of Perceptrons with Random Labelscited by 26
- 2023Are Gaussian data all you need? Extents and limits of universality in high-dimensional generalized linear estimationcited by 25
- 2021Probing transfer learning with a model of synthetic correlated datasetscited by 24
- 2022Theoretical characterization of uncertainty in high-dimensional linear classificationcited by 18
- 2023Bagging Provides Assumption-free Stabilitycited by 18
- 2022On double-descent in uncertainty quantification in overparametrized modelscited by 15
33 more
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- 2024High-dimensional learning of narrow neural networkscited by 12
- 2022A Non-Asymptotic Moreau Envelope Theory for High-Dimensional Generalized Linear Modelscited by 11
- 2024The Implicit Bias of Gradient Descent on Separable Multiclass Datacited by 11
- 2021Understanding the Under-Coverage Bias in Uncertainty Estimationcited by 10
- 2023The Underlying Scaling Laws and Universal Statistical Structure of Complex Datasetscited by 9
- 2025Benefits of Early Stopping in Gradient Descent for Overparameterized Logistic Regressioncited by 9
- 2021Support vector machines and linear regression coincide with very high-dimensional featurescited by 8
- 2022How many labelers do you have? A closer look at gold-standard labelscited by 8
- 2024No Free Prune: Information-Theoretic Barriers to Pruning at Initializationcited by 8
- 2023Regularized Linear Regression for Binary Classificationcited by 7
- 2022Observable adjustments in single-index models for regularized M-estimatorscited by 5
- 2022A New Central Limit Theorem for the Augmented IPW Estimator: Variance Inflation, Cross-Fit Covariance and Beyondcited by 5
- 2023Universality of max-margin classifierscited by 4
- 2024Analysis of Bootstrap and Subsampling in High-dimensional Regularized Regressioncited by 4
- 2023Multinomial Logistic Regression: Asymptotic Normality on Null Covariates in High-Dimensionscited by 3
- 2023On the Variance, Admissibility, and Stability of Empirical Risk Minimizationcited by 3
- 2021A Precise Performance Analysis of Support Vector Regressioncited by 2
- 2025Optimal and Provable Calibration in High-Dimensional Binary Classification: Angular Calibration and Platt Scalingcited by 2
- 2022Using Machine Learning to Test Causal Hypotheses in Conjoint Analysiscited by 1
- 2022Overparametrized linear dimensionality reductions: From projection pursuit to two-layer neural networkscited by 1
- 2023Fast and Multiphase Rates for Nearest Neighbor Classifierscited by 1
- 2024One-Bit Quantization and Sparsification for Multiclass Linear Classification with Strong Regularizationcited by 1
- 2024Dimension-free uniform concentration bound for logistic regressioncited by 1
- 2025Provable FDR Control for Deep Feature Selection: Deep MLPs and Beyondcited by 1
- 2026Finite-Sample Performance of Gradient Descent in Logistic Regression with Gaussian Designcited by 1
- 2024Classifying Overlapping Gaussian Mixtures in High Dimensions: From Optimal Classifiers to Neural Netscited by 0
- 2024Statistical Inference in Classification of High-dimensional Gaussian Mixturecited by 0
- 2025Improved generalization bounds for binary linear classification via isoperimetrycited by 0
- 2025Multi-Environment GLAMP: Approximate Message Passing for Transfer Learning with Applications to Lasso-based Estimatorscited by 0
- 2026Minimax Optimal Estimator and Improved Error Rate for the MLE in Logistic Regression with Gaussian Designcited by 0
- 2026Minimax Optimal Estimator and Improved Error Rate for the MLE in Logistic Regression with Gaussian Design18 Aug 2026
- 2026Finite-Sample Performance of Gradient Descent in Logistic Regression with Gaussian Design19 Jun 2026
- 2025Provable FDR Control for Deep Feature Selection: Deep MLPs and Beyond4 Dec 2025
- 2025Multi-Environment GLAMP: Approximate Message Passing for Transfer Learning with Applications to Lasso-based Estimators28 May 2025
- 2025Improved generalization bounds for binary linear classification via isoperimetry22 May 2025
- 2025Optimal and Provable Calibration in High-Dimensional Binary Classification: Angular Calibration and Platt Scaling21 Feb 2025
- 2025Benefits of Early Stopping in Gradient Descent for Overparameterized Logistic Regression18 Feb 2025
- 2024The Implicit Bias of Gradient Descent on Separable Multiclass Data2 Nov 2024
- 2024Statistical Inference in Classification of High-dimensional Gaussian Mixture25 Oct 2024
- 2024High-dimensional learning of narrow neural networks20 Sep 2024
- 2024Classifying Overlapping Gaussian Mixtures in High Dimensions: From Optimal Classifiers to Neural Nets28 May 2024
- 2024Dimension-free uniform concentration bound for logistic regression28 May 2024
33 more
- 2024Implicit Optimization Bias of Next-Token Prediction in Linear Models28 Feb 2024
- 2024Analysis of Bootstrap and Subsampling in High-dimensional Regularized Regression21 Feb 2024
- 2024One-Bit Quantization and Sparsification for Multiclass Linear Classification with Strong Regularization16 Feb 2024
- 2024No Free Prune: Information-Theoretic Barriers to Pruning at Initialization2 Feb 2024
- 2023Regularized Linear Regression for Binary Classification3 Nov 2023
- 2023Universality of max-margin classifiers29 Sep 2023
- 2023High-dimensional robust regression under heavy-tailed data: Asymptotics and Universality28 Sep 2023
- 2023Fast and Multiphase Rates for Nearest Neighbor Classifiers16 Aug 2023
- 2023The Underlying Scaling Laws and Universal Statistical Structure of Complex Datasets26 Jun 2023
- 2023On the Variance, Admissibility, and Stability of Empirical Risk Minimization29 May 2023
- 2023Multinomial Logistic Regression: Asymptotic Normality on Null Covariates in High-Dimensions28 May 2023
- 2023Universality laws for Gaussian mixtures in generalized linear models17 Feb 2023
- 2023Are Gaussian data all you need? Extents and limits of universality in high-dimensional generalized linear estimation17 Feb 2023
- 2023Bagging Provides Assumption-free Stability30 Jan 2023
- 2022On double-descent in uncertainty quantification in overparametrized models23 Oct 2022
- 2022A Non-Asymptotic Moreau Envelope Theory for High-Dimensional Generalized Linear Models21 Oct 2022
- 2022How many labelers do you have? A closer look at gold-standard labels24 Jun 2022
- 2022Overparametrized linear dimensionality reductions: From projection pursuit to two-layer neural networks14 Jun 2022
- 2022Gaussian Universality of Perceptrons with Random Labels26 May 2022
- 2022A New Central Limit Theorem for the Augmented IPW Estimator: Variance Inflation, Cross-Fit Covariance and Beyond20 May 2022
- 2022Observable adjustments in single-index models for regularized M-estimators14 Apr 2022
- 2022Theoretical characterization of uncertainty in high-dimensional linear classification7 Feb 2022
- 2022Using Machine Learning to Test Causal Hypotheses in Conjoint Analysis20 Jan 2022
- 2021Deep Probability Estimation21 Nov 2021
- 2021Understanding the Under-Coverage Bias in Uncertainty Estimation10 Jun 2021
- 2021Probing transfer learning with a model of synthetic correlated datasets9 Jun 2021
- 2021Learning Gaussian Mixtures with Generalised Linear Models: Precise Asymptotics in High-dimensions7 Jun 2021
- 2021Support vector machines and linear regression coincide with very high-dimensional features28 May 2021
- 2021A Precise Performance Analysis of Support Vector Regression21 May 2021
- 2021A unifying tutorial on Approximate Message Passing5 May 2021
- 2021Label-Imbalanced and Group-Sensitive Classification under Overparameterization2 Mar 2021
- 2021Learning curves of generic features maps for realistic datasets with a teacher-student model16 Feb 2021
- 2021Don't Just Blame Over-parametrization for Over-confidence: Theoretical Analysis of Calibration in Binary Classification15 Feb 2021
- 2021Learning curves of generic features maps for realistic datasets with a teacher-student modelcited by 126
- 2021Label-Imbalanced and Group-Sensitive Classification under Overparameterizationcited by 74
- 2021Learning Gaussian Mixtures with Generalised Linear Models: Precise Asymptotics in High-dimensionscited by 52
- 2021A unifying tutorial on Approximate Message Passingcited by 49
- 2021Don't Just Blame Over-parametrization for Over-confidence: Theoretical Analysis of Calibration in Binary Classificationcited by 39
- 2023Universality laws for Gaussian mixtures in generalized linear modelscited by 28
- 2022Gaussian Universality of Perceptrons with Random Labelscited by 26
- 2023Are Gaussian data all you need? Extents and limits of universality in high-dimensional generalized linear estimationcited by 25
- 2021Probing transfer learning with a model of synthetic correlated datasetscited by 24
- 2022Theoretical characterization of uncertainty in high-dimensional linear classificationcited by 18
- 2023Bagging Provides Assumption-free Stabilitycited by 18
- 2022On double-descent in uncertainty quantification in overparametrized modelscited by 15
12 most cited of 45 All 45 (JSON)
- 2026Minimax Optimal Estimator and Improved Error Rate for the MLE in Logistic Regression with Gaussian Design18 Aug 2026
- 2026Finite-Sample Performance of Gradient Descent in Logistic Regression with Gaussian Design19 Jun 2026
- 2025Provable FDR Control for Deep Feature Selection: Deep MLPs and Beyond4 Dec 2025
- 2025Multi-Environment GLAMP: Approximate Message Passing for Transfer Learning with Applications to Lasso-based Estimators28 May 2025
- 2025Improved generalization bounds for binary linear classification via isoperimetry22 May 2025
- 2025Optimal and Provable Calibration in High-Dimensional Binary Classification: Angular Calibration and Platt Scaling21 Feb 2025
- 2025Benefits of Early Stopping in Gradient Descent for Overparameterized Logistic Regression18 Feb 2025
- 2024The Implicit Bias of Gradient Descent on Separable Multiclass Data2 Nov 2024
- 2024Statistical Inference in Classification of High-dimensional Gaussian Mixture25 Oct 2024
- 2024High-dimensional learning of narrow neural networks20 Sep 2024
- 2024Classifying Overlapping Gaussian Mixtures in High Dimensions: From Optimal Classifiers to Neural Nets28 May 2024
- 2024Dimension-free uniform concentration bound for logistic regression28 May 2024
12 newest of 45 All 45 (JSON)