CANDOR: Chance-Calibrated Neighborhood Discordance in Frozen Encoders for Medical Imaging

A foundation encoder is pretrained once on a large image corpus and then reused with its weights frozen. Each new task is solved by training a small head on the features it produces. This setup is common in medical imaging, where labeled cases are scarce and a frozen encoder can be reused across findings. All downstream tasks then depend on the class separation present in that fixed feature space. Encoder selection usually uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of a trained downstream head. AUROC measures the predictive information a head can extract from the features, but it does not measure class separation in the frozen feature space. A positive image that lies near a negative image in feature space has a bounded normalized margin under any Lipschitz head. Chance-calibrated neighborhood discordance (CANDOR) measures this feature-space separation without training a head. For a positive image, it compares the k nearest positive-label neighbors with the k nearest negative-label neighbors, among images acquired the same way. Discordance rate D is the share of positives whose opposite-label neighbors are nearer. Drawing the 2 candidate sets at equal size makes the labels interchangeable, so label-independent features have chance level D=1/2 without simulation. We apply CANDOR to 22 frozen encoders on 605,443 images from 20 public datasets, covering 8 binary tasks in 7 domains. On every task, the best encoder is below 1/2. A discordant image bounds the normalized margin of every Lipschitz head on that encoder. A selector that is shown the true label and chooses among 11 encoders reduces the miss rate from 0.359 to 0.028. Discordance is associated with occlusion retention and with none of pretraining objective, parameter count, release year, or finding size. The fixed chance level lets D be computed for a frozen encoder before any downstream head is trained.