Accelerating Conformal Prediction via Approximate Leave-One-Out

While conformal prediction provides a general framework for uncertainty quantification in predictive inference, its application is often limited by computational cost. Recent methods, including Jackknife+ and Jackknife-minmax, achieve faster computation by trading a slight loss of efficiency relative to full conformal prediction, but still requires computing leave-one-out refits for all observations. In this paper, we further accelerate conformal prediction by incorporating approximate leave-one-out (ALO) estimators, and establish asymptotic coverage and efficiency. While our proof draws on methods developed for analyzing the consistency of ALO cross-validation risk estimators in high-dimensional statistics, it requires adaptations to handle conformal prediction, where leave-i-out residuals are needed for predictions at xn+1 rather than just at the training covariate xi. Simulation results validate our theoretical findings, showing that the ALO-based methods achieve coverage and efficiency comparable to the exact methods, while significantly reducing the runtime.