How Much Coordination Gain Is Real? A Paired Noise-Floor Protocol for Multi-Agent LLM Benchmarks

Multi-agent LLM coordination papers report small benchmark deltas as evidence that one architecture beats another. A prior question: how much paired trial-0 disagreement do two protocols produce on the same model and benchmark when their API inputs are configuration-equivalent (matched by code inspection plus a SHA-256 byte audit), short of full identity-replay? On Claude Haiku 4.5 against tau^2-bench retail, the clean configuration-equivalent contrast (no_coord vs. intercept, both inert at trial 0) gives signed paired gaps of +10pp and 0pp across two n=100 seeds; pooled across both, +5pp with Wilson CI [-2,+12], not significant. The largest single-seed contrast (+18pp pull-vs-intercept, p_corr=0.012) did not reproduce at the second seed (-3pp, p_corr=1.0); no trial-0 contrast is significant after Bonferroni at either seed or pooled. The envelope of observed paired gaps spans [-3,+18]pp across two seeds, with pooled upper Wilson CI ~15pp. Seven of ten recent multi-agent coordination architectures report headline effects below this local floor, and one more sits inside the envelope; whether they survive a same-model paired replication is, by construction, untested in their original settings. We define coordination-active pass^k, pass^k restricted to trials where the coordination mechanism is logically active, as the minimum reporting protocol, with sample-size targets and runtime hooks in the body. Measurements run on ET-MCP, a task-scoped negative-knowledge store conformant with MCP 2026-07-28, used as a substrate to isolate reader-side choices, not as a contribution. On Haiku 4.5 the candidate readers (pull, intercept) do not improve trial-1 recovery; we give a preliminary diagnosis of failure modes with refinements on existing production hook surfaces.