Modeling U.S. Attitudes Toward China via an Event-Steered Multi-Agent Simulator

Understanding the dynamic evolution of opinions, such as U.S. public attitudes toward China, is essential for assessing geopolitical risks. However, existing LLM-based multiagent simulators predominantly rely on static rules and fixed datasets, limiting their ability to capture the dynamic, event-driven nature of macro-level opinion shifts in real-world settings. To address this limitation, we propose an Event-Steered Multi-Agent Simulator (ES-MAS), in which significant events and daily news continuously drive opinion evolution through dynamic interactions among agents. We first construct the China-U.S. Relation Evolution (CURE) dataset, covering 20 quarters from 2021 to 2025, including 258 major events and over 14,000 daily news articles, and providing a comprehensive temporal foundation for modeling opinion dynamics. Building upon the CURE dataset, we propose a Dual-Stream Data Integration Engine (DSDIE) that aligns simulations with historical timelines via macro-level events while enabling personalized information exposure based on individual agent profiles and contextual signals. Furthermore, we design a News-Driven Dynamic Interaction (NDDI) module, which adaptively groups agents with shared news interests into localized interaction contexts, facilitating bottom-up consensus formation while mitigating the risk of isolated information cocoons. Experimental results on the CURE dataset demonstrate that ES-MAS substantially outperforms existing simulators in reproducing real-world historical trends, offering a scalable and effective framework for modeling dynamic opinion evolution.