mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Position: State-of-the-Art Claims Require State-of-the-Art Evidence

arXiv 2605.17273 ↗First posted 17 May 2026cs.LG cs.AIcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

State-of-the-Art (SOTA) claims pervade Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) research. These claims rest on benchmark evaluations, where models are ranked by aggregate scores across tasks. Public benchmarks or leaderboards are the most visible instance, but the same structure appears in paper tables throughout the literature. However, such minimal evidence often cannot support these strong claims. We identify a widespread claim-evidence gap in AI benchmarking. Claiming SOTA carries implicit assumptions beyond mean score superiority, suggesting that a model meaningfully outperforms alternatives across most tasks. However, a marginal improvement in the mean score merely indicates a top average rank rather than true superiority. Analyzing ten cross-domain benchmarks from public leaderboards, we found that in more than half of top-model comparisons, at least one commonly assumed property of superiority does not hold. These properties include meaningful effect size, consistency across tasks, or robustness to dataset removal. Instead, aggregate gains are frequently driven by outlier datasets. This fragility persists even in benchmarks with many tasks. We argue that claim language should reflect the strength of the underlying evidence. This requires no additional experiments, only honest reporting of what results actually show, enabling more precise and interpretable comparisons across models.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 28 of its 58 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 17 May 2026.

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28 of 58 references.

References · 28

  1. 2023Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arenacited by 8,626
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16 more
  1. 2024Leak, Cheat, Repeat: Data Contamination and Evaluation Malpractices in Closed-Source LLMscited by 229
  2. 2021Accounting for Variance in Machine Learning Benchmarkscited by 201
  3. 2024Are We Done with MMLU?cited by 194
  4. 2025TabArena: A Living Benchmark for Machine Learning on Tabular Datacited by 176
  5. 2024When Benchmarks are Targets: Revealing the Sensitivity of Large Language Model Leaderboardscited by 137
  6. 2021The Benchmark Lotterycited by 136
  7. 2024BetterBench: Assessing AI Benchmarks, Uncovering Issues, and Establishing Best Practicescited by 114
  8. 2018Troubling Trends in Machine Learning Scholarshipcited by 108
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  12. 2024TSFM-Bench: A Comprehensive and Unified Benchmark of Foundation Models for Time Series Forecastingcited by 58
  13. 2020The Problem with Metrics is a Fundamental Problem for AIcited by 37
  14. 2025On Robustness and Reliability of Benchmark-Based Evaluation of LLMscited by 23
  15. 2024Cherry-Picking in Time Series Forecasting: How to Select Datasets to Make Your Model Shinecited by 10
  16. 2025Self-supervised Benchmark Lottery on ImageNet: Do Marginal Improvements Translate to Improvements on Similar Datasets?cited by 1

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