Sign-Separated Asymmetric Finite-Time Error Analysis of Q-Learning

Q-learning is known to suffer from overestimation bias: because the Bellman update maximizes noisy or imperfect action-value estimates, positive errors can be selected and propagated, causing learned values to exceed the true optimal values. This bias can slow learning, degrade policy quality, and make value estimates unreliable. Although the convergence of Q-learning has been studied extensively, convergence theory that explicitly reflects this overestimation mechanism remains limited. This paper studies the asymmetric convergence behavior of Q-learning induced by overestimation bias. We decompose the Q-learning error into its componentwise positive and negative parts and derive separate finite-time rates for the two components. The resulting certificates can assign a slower exponential envelope to the positive component than to the negative component. This rate separation provides indirect theoretical evidence for max-induced overestimation: positive errors can be amplified through the maximization step, whereas negative errors admit a sharper comparison with an optimal-policy system. The separation is a difference between upper bounds, so it need not hold for every realized Q-learning trajectory. Nevertheless, we construct examples in which the predicted asymmetry appears in the actual trajectory. The analysis gives deterministic and stochastic constant-step-size bounds and clarifies how overestimation enters the switching-system dynamics of Q-learning.