Explainable Fall Detection for Elderly Monitoring via Temporally Stable SHAP in Skeleton-Based Human Activity Recognition

Reliable fall detection in elderly care requires monitoring systems that are not only accurate but also capable of producing stable, interpretable explanations of motion dynamics, a requirement that existing post hoc explainability methods rarely satisfy when applied to sequential biosignals. This study introduces a lightweight framework for skeleton-based fall detection that combines a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model with a temporally stabilized attribution mechanism. We propose Temporal SHAP (T-SHAP), which treats frame-wise SHAP attributions as a temporal signal and applies a linear smoothing operator to reduce high-frequency variance. From a signal processing perspective, this operation is analogous to low-pass filtering, enabling the extraction of consistent temporal patterns while preserving the theoretical properties of Shapley-based attributions. Experiments conducted on the NTU RGB+D dataset demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves 94.3% classification accuracy with an end-to-end latency below 25 ms, supporting real-time applicability. Quantitative evaluation using perturbation-based faithfulness metrics shows that T-SHAP improves attribution reliability compared to standard SHAP (AUP: 0.91 vs. 0.89) and Grad-CAM (0.82), while also reducing temporal variance in the attribution signals. The resulting explanations highlight biomechanically relevant motion patterns, such as lower-limb instability and changes in trunk posture, which are consistent with known characteristics of fall events. The resulting framework is computationally lightweight, requires no additional model training, and produces explanations that are both temporally stable and biomechanically meaningful, properties directly relevant to the reliability demands of AI-assisted clinical monitoring.