JointFM-0.1: A Foundation Model for Multi-Target Joint Distributional Prediction
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Abstract (arXiv)
Despite the rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) remain the gold-standard formalism for modeling systems under uncertainty. However, applying SDEs in practice is fraught with challenges: modeling risk is high, calibration is often brittle, and high-fidelity simulations are computationally expensive. This technical report introduces JointFM, a foundation model that inverts this paradigm. Instead of fitting SDEs to data, we sample an infinite stream of synthetic SDEs to train a generic model to predict future joint probability distributions directly. This approach establishes JointFM as the first foundation model for distributional predictions of coupled time series - requiring no task-specific calibration or finetuning. Despite operating in a purely zero-shot setting, JointFM reduces the energy loss by 21.1% relative to the strongest baseline when recovering oracle joint distributions generated by unseen synthetic SDEs.
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References · 8
- 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 59,932
- 2020Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 20,851
- 2015Variational Inference with Normalizing Flowscited by 2,161
- 2023A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecastingcited by 650
- 2020Scalable Gradients for Stochastic Differential Equationscited by 264
- 2021Neural SDEs as Infinite-Dimensional GANscited by 159
- 2025Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecastingcited by 59
- 2025TempoPFN: Synthetic Pre-training of Linear RNNs for Zero-shot Time Series Forecastingcited by 16
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