Eliciting Numerical Predictive Distributions of LLMs Without Autoregression
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Abstract (arXiv)
Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks -- such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction -- by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding process may be ill-suited to continuous-valued outputs, where obtaining predictive distributions over numerical targets requires repeated sampling, leading to high computational cost and inference time. In this work, we investigate whether distributional properties of LLM predictions can be recovered without explicit autoregressive generation. To this end, we study a set of regression probes trained to predict statistical functionals (e.g., mean, median, quantiles) of the LLM's numerical output distribution directly from its internal representations. Our results suggest that LLM embeddings carry informative signals about summary statistics of their predictive distributions, including the numerical uncertainty. This investigation opens up new questions about how LLMs internally encode uncertainty in numerical tasks, and about the feasibility of lightweight alternatives to sampling-based approaches for uncertainty-aware numerical predictions.
Key facts. Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 25 of its 29 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 3 Mar 2026.
Builds on
25 of 29 references.
References · 25
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13 more
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Citing papers per year: 2026: 5.
5 papers.
- 2026NumericJev: Jev-like LLM Numerical Decoding with Multiway Decision Treescited by 3
- 2026RELISH: LLM REgression with a Latent Iterative State Headcited by 1
- 2026Reinforcement Learning over Predictive Distributions for LLM Regressioncited by 1
- 2026Large Language Models as Amortized Pareto-Front Generators for Constrained Bi-Objective Convex Optimizationcited by 0
- 2026A Graph Signal Processing Perspective on Numerical Sequence Representations in LLM In-Context Learningcited by 0
- 2026NumericJev: Jev-like LLM Numerical Decoding with Multiway Decision Trees23 Sep 2026
- 2026A Graph Signal Processing Perspective on Numerical Sequence Representations in LLM In-Context Learning4 Aug 2026
- 2026Reinforcement Learning over Predictive Distributions for LLM Regression20 May 2026
- 2026Large Language Models as Amortized Pareto-Front Generators for Constrained Bi-Objective Convex Optimization12 May 2026
- 2026RELISH: LLM REgression with a Latent Iterative State Head1 Apr 2026