mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

FuXi-Nowcast: Environment-conditioned deep learning for severe convection nowcasting

arXiv 2512.08974 ↗First posted 3 Dec 2025physics.ao-ph cs.LGcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Severe convection produces localized hazards that often require warnings before radar echoes fully reveal storm development. Convective initiation and the maintenance of intense convection remain challenging for radar-only nowcasting because pre-convective signals may be absent from recent radar observations and strong echoes often decay rapidly in forecasts. Here we present FuXi-Nowcast, an environment-conditioned deep learning system that combines high-resolution observations with three-dimensional atmospheric forecasts to predict composite reflectivity, precipitation, wind gusts, and surface variables up to 12 h ahead. In April--July 2024 evaluations over East China, FuXi-Nowcast outperforms operational numerical, persistence and extrapolation baselines for reflectivity and precipitation. Case studies, diagnostics, and ablation experiments suggest that atmospheric moisture information and explicit preservation of strong convective signals contribute to forecasts of convective initiation and maintenance. These results show that environmental conditioning can mitigate important failure modes of radar-only nowcasting for high-impact convective weather.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 19 of its 60 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 3 Dec 2025.

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19 of 60 references.

References · 19

  1. 2014Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimizationcited by 37,240
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  3. 2021Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radarcited by 311
  4. 2019Libra R-CNN: Towards Balanced Learning for Object Detectioncited by 255
  5. 2023FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecastcited by 241
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  10. 2023DiffCast: A Unified Framework via Residual Diffusion for Precipitation Nowcastingcited by 61
  11. 2019Machine Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting from Radar Imagescited by 56
  12. 2024CasCast: Skillful High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasting via Cascaded Modellingcited by 56
7 more
  1. 2024Kilometer-Scale Convection Allowing Model Emulation using Generative Diffusion Modelingcited by 32
  2. 2020A review of radar-based nowcasting of precipitation and applicable machine learning techniquescited by 19
  3. 2024Deep learning for precipitation nowcasting: A survey from the perspective of time series forecastingcited by 14
  4. 2024FuXi-2.0: Advancing machine learning weather forecasting model for practical applicationscited by 11
  5. 2024GPTCast: a weather language model for precipitation nowcastingcited by 8
  6. 2025An Operational Deep Learning System for Satellite-Based High-Resolution Global Nowcastingcited by 4
  7. 2025Improving Predictions of Convective Storm Wind Gusts through Statistical Post-Processing of Neural Weather Modelscited by 1

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