Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Model Reward Learning under Heterogeneous Human Feedback
On the map: LLM alignment / RLHF / preference optimisation → Reward modeling and RLHF
Abstract (arXiv)
We study estimation and statistical inference for reward models used in aligning large language models (LLMs). A key component of LLM alignment is reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), where humans compare pairs of model-generated answers and their preferences are used to train a reward model. However, human feedback is inherently heterogeneous, creating significant challenges for reliable reward learning. To address this, we adopt a heterogeneous preference framework that jointly models the latent reward of answers and human rationality. This leads to a challenging biconvex optimization problem, which we solve via an alternating gradient descent algorithm. We establish theoretical guarantees for the resulting estimator, including its convergence and asymptotic distribution. These results enable the construction of confidence intervals for reward estimates. Leveraging these uncertainty quantification results, we conduct valid statistical comparisons between rewards and incorporate uncertainty into the best-of-N (BoN) policy framework. Extensive simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, and applications to real LLM data highlight the practical value of accounting for uncertainty in reward modeling for LLM alignment.
Key facts. Cited by 9 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Reward modeling and RLHF, one of 10 directions in LLM alignment / RLHF / preference optimisation. Builds on 24 of its 78 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 2 Dec 2025.
Builds on
24 of 78 references.
Closest ancestors · 8
Same direction, newest first
- 2025Contextual Online Uncertainty-Aware Preference Learning for Human Feedback27 Apr
- 2025Robust Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback for Large Language Models Fine-Tuning3 Apr
- 2024Low-Rank Contextual Reinforcement Learning from Heterogeneous Human Feedback27 Dec
- 2024Optimal Design for Reward Modeling in RLHF22 Oct
- 2024Dual Active Learning for Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback3 Oct
- 2024Provable Pluralistic Alignment: Multi-Party RLHF under Offline Human Feedback8 Mar
- 2022Training a Helpful and Harmless Assistant with Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback12 Apr
- 2021WebGPT: Browser-assisted question-answering with human feedback17 Dec
Other references · 16
- 2025An Overview of Large Language Models for Statisticianscited by 24
- 2025PairJudge RM: Perform Best-of-N Sampling with Knockout Tournamentcited by 22
- 2025AdaDetectGPT: Adaptive Detection of LLM-Generated Text with Statistical Guaranteescited by 21
- 2024Are LLMs Better than Reported? Detecting Label Errors and Mitigating Their Effect on Model Performancecited by 20
- 2024Synthetic Oversampling: Theory and A Practical Approach Using LLMs to Address Data Imbalancecited by 17
- 2025Doubly Robust Alignment for Large Language Modelscited by 12
- 2025MPO: An Efficient Post-Processing Framework for Mixing Diverse Preference Alignmentcited by 10
- 2025Incentivizing Truthful Language Models via Peer Elicitation Gamescited by 9
- 2024Covariate Assisted Entity Ranking with Sparse Intrinsic Scorescited by 7
- 2024Confidence Diagram of Nonparametric Ranking for Uncertainty Assessment in Large Language Models Evaluationcited by 6
- 2025Uncertainty Quantification for Ranking with Heterogeneous Preferencescited by 6
- 2025Do Large Language Models (Really) Need Statistical Foundations?cited by 5
4 more
- 2025Efficient Inference for Covariate-adjusted Bradley-Terry Model with Covariate Shiftcited by 4
- 2025Fisher Random Walk: Automatic Debiasing Contextual Preference Inference for Large Language Model Evaluationcited by 3
- 2024A Tale of Two Cities: Pessimism and Opportunism in Offline Dynamic Pricingcited by 2
- 2025Semi-pessimistic Reinforcement Learningcited by 2
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 9.
9 papers.
- 2026Demystifying Group Relative Policy Optimization: Its Policy Gradient is a U-Statisticcited by 21
- 2026Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback: A Statistical Perspectivecited by 4
- 2026RewardUQ: A Unified Framework for Uncertainty-Aware Reward Modelscited by 3
- 2026Kernelized Advantage Estimation: From Nonparametric Statistics to LLM Reasoningcited by 3
- 2026Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Modelscited by 2
- 2026Low Rank for Rank: Uncertainty-Aware Task-Specific LLM Ranking under Sparse Pairwise Comparisonscited by 2
- 2026Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Entity Ranking under Iterative Synthetic Data Augmentationcited by 1
- 2026Variance-aware Reward Modeling with Anchor Guidancecited by 0
- 2026PEBS: Per-rater Empirical-Bayes Shrinkage for RLHF Reward-Model Calibrationcited by 0
- 2026Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Entity Ranking under Iterative Synthetic Data Augmentation26 Sep 2026
- 2026PEBS: Per-rater Empirical-Bayes Shrinkage for RLHF Reward-Model Calibration25 Jun 2026
- 2026Low Rank for Rank: Uncertainty-Aware Task-Specific LLM Ranking under Sparse Pairwise Comparisons28 May 2026
- 2026Variance-aware Reward Modeling with Anchor Guidance12 May 2026
- 2026Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models5 May 2026
- 2026Kernelized Advantage Estimation: From Nonparametric Statistics to LLM Reasoning30 Apr 2026
- 2026Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback: A Statistical Perspective2 Apr 2026
- 2026Demystifying Group Relative Policy Optimization: Its Policy Gradient is a U-Statistic1 Mar 2026
- 2026RewardUQ: A Unified Framework for Uncertainty-Aware Reward Models27 Feb 2026
Similar, not cited
Close in wording, no citation either way
- 2024Towards Reliable Alignment: Uncertainty-aware RLHF
- 2026Uncertainty-Aware Reward Modeling for Stable RLHF
- 2024Bayesian Reward Models for LLM Alignment
- 2025Ask a Strong LLM Judge when Your Reward Model is Uncertain
- 2024On the Algorithmic Bias of Aligning Large Language Models with RLHF: Preference Collapse and Matching Regularization
- 2024Uncertainty-aware Reward Model: Teaching Reward Models to Know What is Unknown
- 2025Two Minds Better Than One: Collaborative Reward Modeling for LLM Alignment
- 2024West-of-N: Synthetic Preferences for Self-Improving Reward Models