Do Large Language Models (Really) Need Statistical Foundations?
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Abstract (arXiv)
Large language models (LLMs) represent a new paradigm for processing unstructured data, with applications across an unprecedented range of domains. In this paper, we address, through two arguments, whether the development and application of LLMs would genuinely benefit from foundational contributions from the statistics discipline. First, we argue affirmatively, beginning with the observation that LLMs are inherently statistical models due to their profound data dependency and stochastic generation processes, where statistical insights are naturally essential for handling variability and uncertainty. Second, we argue that the persistent black-box nature of LLMs -- stemming from their immense scale, architectural complexity, and development practices often prioritizing empirical performance over theoretical interpretability -- renders closed-form or purely mechanistic analyses generally intractable, thereby necessitating statistical approaches due to their flexibility and often demonstrated effectiveness. To substantiate these arguments, the paper outlines several research areas -- including alignment, watermarking, uncertainty quantification, evaluation, and data mixture optimization -- where statistical methodologies are critically needed and are already beginning to make valuable contributions. We conclude with a discussion suggesting that statistical research concerning LLMs will likely form a diverse ``mosaic'' of specialized topics rather than deriving from a single unifying theory, and highlighting the importance of timely engagement by our statistics community in LLM research.
Key facts. Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 96 of its 139 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 25 May 2025.
Builds on
96 of 139 references.
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 3; 2026: 2.
5 papers.
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- 2026AI Must Embrace Specialization via Superhuman Adaptable Intelligencecited by 6
- 2025Offline and Online KL-Regularized RLHF under Differential Privacycited by 3
- 2026Tail-Aware Information-Theoretic Bounds for LLM Alignment under Heavy-Tailed Rewardscited by 0
- 2026Tail-Aware Information-Theoretic Bounds for LLM Alignment under Heavy-Tailed Rewards12 Apr 2026
- 2026AI Must Embrace Specialization via Superhuman Adaptable Intelligence27 Feb 2026
- 2025Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Model Reward Learning under Heterogeneous Human Feedback2 Dec 2025
- 2025Offline and Online KL-Regularized RLHF under Differential Privacy15 Oct 2025
- 2025Do Repetitions Matter? Strengthening Reliability in LLM Evaluations28 Sep 2025