Counterfactually Fair Conformal Prediction
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Abstract (arXiv)
While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient, distribution-free, finite-sample valid prediction sets, yet does not ensure counterfactual fairness. We close this gap by developing Counterfactually Fair Conformal Prediction (CF-CP) that produces counterfactually fair prediction sets. Through symmetrization of conformity scores across protected-attribute interventions, we prove that CF-CP results in counterfactually fair prediction sets while maintaining the marginal coverage property. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that on both synthetic and real datasets, across regression and classification tasks, CF-CP achieves the desired counterfactual fairness and meets the target coverage rate with minimal increase in prediction set size. CF-CP offers a simple, training-free route to counterfactually fair uncertainty quantification.
Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 32 of its 53 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 9 Oct 2025.
Builds on
32 of 53 references.
References · 32
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- 2017Counterfactual Fairnesscited by 804
- 2016Fair prediction with disparate impact: A study of bias in recidivism prediction instrumentscited by 672
- 2016Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regressioncited by 668
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- 2018Path-Specific Counterfactual Fairnesscited by 181
20 more
- 2019Fair Regression: Quantitative Definitions and Reduction-based Algorithmscited by 168
- 2018Counterfactual Fairness in Text Classification through Robustnesscited by 151
- 2020Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effectscited by 151
- 2023Causal-learn: Causal Discovery in Pythoncited by 109
- 2018The Measure and Mismeasure of Fairnesscited by 95
- 2021Fair Conformal Predictors for Applications in Medical Imagingcited by 74
- 2023Counterfactual Identifiability of Bijective Causal Modelscited by 43
- 2020Exchangeability, Conformal Prediction, and Rank Testscited by 41
- 2024Conformal Prediction Sets Improve Human Decision Makingcited by 35
- 2022Conformalized Fairness via Quantile Regressioncited by 19
- 2024Conformal Prediction for Causal Effects of Continuous Treatmentscited by 19
- 2023Equal Opportunity of Coverage in Fair Regressioncited by 16
- 2020Counterfactual fairness: removing direct effects through regularizationcited by 14
- 2024Conformal Prediction Sets Can Cause Disparate Impactcited by 14
- 2024Conformal Counterfactual Inference under Hidden Confoundingcited by 10
- 2023Counterfactually Fair Representationcited by 9
- 2024Counterfactual Fairness by Combining Factual and Counterfactual Predictionscited by 8
- 2025A Generic Framework for Conformal Fairnesscited by 7
- 2023Towards Characterizing Domain Counterfactuals For Invertible Latent Causal Modelscited by 4
- 2024Explaining Text Classifiers with Counterfactual Representationscited by 3
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Citing papers per year: 2026: 2.
2 papers.