mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Exchangeability, Conformal Prediction, and Rank Tests

arXiv 2005.06095 ↗First posted 13 May 2020stat.ME stat.AP stat.MLcited by 41

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Abstract (arXiv)

Conformal prediction has been a very popular method of distribution-free predictive inference in recent years in machine learning and statistics. Its popularity stems from the fact that it works as a wrapper around any prediction algorithm such as neural networks or random forests. Exchangeability is at the core of the validity of conformal prediction. The concept of exchangeability is also at the core of rank tests widely known in nonparametric statistics. In this paper, we review the concept of exchangeability and discuss the implications for conformal prediction and rank tests. We provide a low-level introduction to these topics, and discuss the similarities between conformal prediction and rank tests.

Key facts. Cited by 41 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 13 May 2020.

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Citing papers per year: 2021: 3; 2022: 4; 2023: 8; 2024: 11; 2025: 10; 2026: 5.

41 papers.

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  1. 2021Testing for Outliers with Conformal p-valuescited by 134
  2. 2021Conformal Uncertainty Sets for Robust Optimizationcited by 49
  3. 2022Probabilistic Conformal Prediction Using Conditional Random Samplescited by 47
  4. 2024Provably Robust Conformal Prediction with Improved Efficiencycited by 27
  5. 2025Minimum Volume Conformal Sets for Multivariate Regressioncited by 27
  6. 2024An Information Theoretic Perspective on Conformal Predictioncited by 21
  7. 2025Optimal Transport-based Conformal Predictioncited by 20
  8. 2021Anomalous Edge Detection in Edge Exchangeable Social Network Modelscited by 17
  9. 2023Conformal Prediction for Network-Assisted Regressioncited by 14
  10. 2024Semiparametric conformal predictioncited by 13
  11. 2023Quantum Conformal Prediction for Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Quantum Machine Learningcited by 11
  12. 2024Conditional Diffusion Models Based Conditional Independence Testingcited by 9
29 more
  1. 2023Knowing When to Stop: Delay-Adaptive Spiking Neural Network Classifiers with Reliability Guaranteescited by 8
  2. 2023SymmPI: Predictive Inference for Data with Group Symmetriescited by 8
  3. 2024Cross-Validation Conformal Risk Controlcited by 8
  4. 2022Exact and Approximate Conformal Inference for Multi-Output Regressioncited by 7
  5. 2023Max-Rank: Efficient Multiple Testing for Conformal Predictioncited by 7
  6. 2024Conformal Predictive Programming for Chance Constrained Optimizationcited by 6
  7. 2022Improved conformalized quantile regressioncited by 5
  8. 2024Spatial-Aware Conformal Prediction for Trustworthy Hyperspectral Image Classificationcited by 5
  9. 2025Improving the statistical efficiency of cross-conformal predictioncited by 5
  10. 2023On the Temperature of Bayesian Graph Neural Networks for Conformal Predictioncited by 4
  11. 2024Uncertainty quantification in metric spacescited by 4
  12. 2023On the Validity of Conformal Prediction for Network Data Under Non-Uniform Samplingcited by 3
  13. 2025Reliable uncertainty quantification for 2D/3D anatomical landmark localization using multi-output conformal predictioncited by 3
  14. 2025Test-time augmentation improves efficiency in conformal predictioncited by 3
  15. 2025Conformal and kNN Predictive Uncertainty Quantification Algorithms in Metric Spacescited by 2
  16. 2025Counterfactually Fair Conformal Predictioncited by 2
  17. 2022A general framework for multi-step ahead adaptive conformal heteroscedastic time series forecastingcited by 1
  18. 2024Conformal Diffusion Models for Individual Treatment Effect Estimation and Inferencecited by 1
  19. 2026Elements of Conformal Predictioncited by 1
  20. 2026Conformal Prediction for Dyadic Regression Under Complex Missingnesscited by 1
  21. 2026Particle-Based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spacescited by 1
  22. 2023Loss-Controlling Calibration for Predictive Modelscited by 0
  23. 2024Localized Conformal Multi-Quantile Regressioncited by 0
  24. 2024Safe Adaptive Cruise Control Under Perception Uncertainty: A Deep Ensemble and Conformal Tube Model Predictive Control Approachcited by 0
  25. 2025Exchangeability in Neural Network and its Application to Dynamic Pruningcited by 0
  26. 2025MMDCP: A Distribution-free Approach to Outlier Detection and Classification with Coverage Guarantees and SCW-FDR Controlcited by 0
  27. 2025Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Quantum Machine Learningcited by 0
  28. 2026Enhanced Data-Driven Product Development via Gradient Based Optimization and Conformalized Monte Carlo Dropout Uncertainty Estimationcited by 0
  29. 2026GRAPHLCP: Structure-Aware Localized Conformal Prediction on Graphscited by 0