Temporal Generalization: A Reality Check

Machine learning (ML) models often struggle to maintain performance under distribution shifts, leading to inaccurate predictions on unseen future data. In this work, we investigate whether and under what conditions models can achieve such a generalization when relying solely on past data. We explore two primary approaches: convex combinations of past model parameters (parameter interpolation) and explicit extrapolation beyond the convex hull of past parameters (parameter extrapolation). We benchmark several methods within these categories on a diverse set of temporal tasks, including language modeling, news summarization, news tag prediction, academic paper categorization, satellite image-based land use classification over time, and historical yearbook photo gender prediction. Our empirical findings show that none of the evaluated methods consistently outperforms the simple baseline of using the latest available model parameters in all scenarios. In the absence of access to future data or robust assumptions about the underlying data-generating process, these results underscore the inherent difficulties of generalizing and extrapolating to future data and warrant caution when evaluating claims of such generalization.