mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

ChaosNexus: A Foundation Model for ODE-based Chaotic System Forecasting with Hierarchical Multi-scale Awareness

arXiv 2509.21802 ↗First posted 26 Sep 2025cs.LG cs.AIcited by 1

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Abstract (arXiv)

Foundation models have shown great promise in achieving zero-shot or few-shot forecasting for ODE-based chaotic systems via large-scale pretraining. However, existing architectures often fail to capture the multi-scale temporal structures and distinct spectral characteristics of chaotic dynamics. To address this, we introduce ChaosNexus, a foundation model for chaotic system forecasting underpinned by the proposed ScaleFormer architecture. By processing temporal contexts across hierarchically varying patch sizes, ChaosNexus effectively captures long-range dependencies and preserves high-frequency fluctuations. To address heterogeneity across distinct systems, we integrate Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layers into each ScaleFormer block and explicitly condition the final forecasts on a learned frequency fingerprint, providing the model with a global spectral view of the system. Extensive evaluations on over 9,000 synthetic systems demonstrate that ChaosNexus achieves superior fidelity in long-term attractor statistics while maintaining competitive point-wise accuracy. Furthermore, in real-world applications, it achieves a remarkable zero-shot mean error below 1degC for 5-day station-based weather forecasting. Codes are available at https://github.com/TomXaxaxa/ChaosNexus.

Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 36 of its 67 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 26 Sep 2025.

Builds on

36 of 67 references.

References · 36

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24 more
  1. 2015Generative Moment Matching Networkscited by 257
  2. 2024Poseidon: Efficient Foundation Models for PDEscited by 200
  3. 2021Next Generation Reservoir Computingcited by 160
  4. 2023Towards Foundation Models for Scientific Machine Learning: Characterizing Scaling and Transfer Behaviorcited by 131
  5. 2023Koopa: Learning Non-stationary Time Series Dynamics with Koopman Predictorscited by 113
  6. 2024Timer-XL: Long-Context Transformers for Unified Time Series Forecastingcited by 87
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  10. 2021Learning Dissipative Dynamics in Chaotic Systemscited by 42
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  14. 2024DySLIM: Dynamics Stable Learning by Invariant Measure for Chaotic Systemscited by 30
  15. 2024Zero-shot forecasting of chaotic systemscited by 28
  16. 2023Model scale versus domain knowledge in statistical forecasting of chaotic systemscited by 27
  17. 2023Generalizing Graph ODE for Learning Complex System Dynamics across Environmentscited by 23
  18. 2025True Zero-Shot Inference of Dynamical Systems Preserving Long-Term Statisticscited by 20
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  24. 2025Learning Beyond Experience: Generalizing to Unseen State Space with Reservoir Computingcited by 2

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Citing papers per year: 2026: 1.

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  5. 2025Thermalizer: Stable autoregressive neural emulation of spatiotemporal chaos
  6. 2026QFCQT: A Chaotically Gated Quantformer Framework for Volatile Time-Series Forecasting
  7. 2026More Experts, Worse Dynamics: Inverse Scaling and Spectral Bias in Mixture-of-Experts State-Space Models
  8. 2025Fast and Flexible Probabilistic Forecasting of Dynamical Systems using Flow Matching and Physical Perturbation