LLM Cannot Discover Causality, and Should Be Restricted to Non-Decisional Support in Causal Discovery
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
This paper critically re-evaluates LLMs' role in causal discovery and argues against their direct involvement in determining causal relationships. We demonstrate that LLMs' autoregressive, correlation-driven modeling inherently lacks the theoretical grounding for causal reasoning and introduces unreliability when used as priors in causal discovery algorithms. Through empirical studies, we expose the limitations of existing LLM-based methods and reveal that deliberate prompt engineering (e.g., injecting ground-truth knowledge) could overstate their performance, helping to explain the consistently favorable results reported in much of the current literature. Based on these findings, we strictly confined LLMs' role to a non-decisional auxiliary capacity: LLMs should not participate in determining the existence or directionality of causal relationships, but can assist the search process for causal graphs (e.g., LLM-based heuristic search). Experiments across various settings confirm that, by strictly isolating LLMs from causal decision-making, LLM-guided heuristic search can accelerate the convergence and outperform both traditional and LLM-based methods in causal structure learning. We conclude with a call for the community to shift focus from naively applying LLMs to developing specialized models and training method that respect the core principles of causal discovery.
Key facts. Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 44 of its 71 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 1 Jun 2025.
Builds on
44 of 71 references.
References · 44
- 2023A Survey of Large Language Modelscited by 2,576
- 2023Causal Reasoning and Large Language Models: Opening a New Frontier for Causalitycited by 353
- 2021D'ya like DAGs? A Survey on Structure Learning and Causal Discoverycited by 211
- 2013Causal Inference and Causal Explanation with Background Knowledgecited by 170
- 2023Causal Parrots: Large Language Models May Talk Causality But Are Not Causalcited by 150
- 2023Can Large Language Models Infer Causation from Correlation?cited by 146
- 2016Foundations of Structural Causal Models with Cycles and Latent Variablescited by 134
- 2023CLadder: Assessing Causal Reasoning in Language Modelscited by 107
- 2024Evolutionary Computation in the Era of Large Language Model: Survey and Roadmapcited by 90
- 2023Can large language models build causal graphs?cited by 73
- 2023Is ChatGPT a Good Causal Reasoner? A Comprehensive Evaluationcited by 69
- 2023Causal Discovery with Language Models as Imperfect Expertscited by 64
32 more
- 2023A Survey on Causal Discovery: Theory and Practicecited by 63
- 2024Are LLMs Capable of Data-based Statistical and Causal Reasoning? Benchmarking Advanced Quantitative Reasoning with Datacited by 63
- 2023Integrating Large Language Model for Improved Causal Discoverycited by 54
- 2023Understanding Causality with Large Language Models: Feasibility and Opportunitiescited by 53
- 2024Efficient Causal Graph Discovery Using Large Language Modelscited by 53
- 2023Causal Order: The Key to Leveraging Imperfect Experts in Causal Inferencecited by 48
- 2024Integrating Large Language Models in Causal Discovery: A Statistical Causal Approachcited by 32
- 2024Toward a Theory of Tokenization in LLMscited by 30
- 2024ALCM: Autonomous LLM-Augmented Causal Discovery Frameworkcited by 29
- 2024Multi-Agent Causal Discovery Using Large Language Modelscited by 26
- 2024Large Language Models are Effective Priors for Causal Graph Discoverycited by 24
- 2023Causal Structure Learning Supervised by Large Language Modelcited by 21
- 2024Causal Evaluation of Language Modelscited by 18
- 2024Causal Graph Discovery with Retrieval-Augmented Generation based Large Language Modelscited by 16
- 2024Automating psychological hypothesis generation with AI: when large language models meet causal graphcited by 15
- 2024Large Language Models for Constrained-Based Causal Discoverycited by 15
- 2023Enhancing Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models: A Causal Attribution Model for Precision Fine-Tuningcited by 14
- 2024RealTCD: Temporal Causal Discovery from Interventional Data with Large Language Modelcited by 13
- 2024CausalEval: Towards Better Causal Reasoning in Language Modelscited by 13
- 2025Can Large Language Models Help Experimental Design for Causal Discovery?cited by 11
- 2023Applying Large Language Models for Causal Structure Learning in Non Small Cell Lung Cancercited by 8
- 2024Comprehensive Review and Empirical Evaluation of Causal Discovery Algorithms for Numerical Datacited by 8
- 2017Entropy-based Pruning for Learning Bayesian Networks using BICcited by 6
- 2024LLM-initialized Differentiable Causal Discoverycited by 6
- 2016A Theoretical Analysis of the BDeu Scores in Bayesian Network Structure Learningcited by 5
- 2025Fairness-Driven LLM-based Causal Discovery with Active Learning and Dynamic Scoringcited by 5
- 2025Can LLMs Leverage Observational Data? Towards Data-Driven Causal Discovery with LLMscited by 5
- 2024Using GPT-4 to guide causal machine learningcited by 3
- 2024CausalChat: Interactive Causal Model Development and Refinement Using Large Language Modelscited by 3
- 2025Large Language Models for Zero-shot Inference of Causal Structures in Biologycited by 2
- 2025Beyond LLMs: A Linguistic Approach to Causal Graph Generation from Narrative Textscited by 2
- 2024New Rules for Causal Identification with Background Knowledgecited by 1
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2025: 4; 2026: 4.
8 papers.
- 2025When Large Language Models Meet Law: Dual-Lens Taxonomy, Technical Advances, and Ethical Governancecited by 3
- 2025Making LLMs Reliable When It Matters Most: A Five-Layer Architecture for High-Stakes Decisionscited by 1
- 2025CRAwDAD: Causal Reasoning Augmentation with Dual-Agent Debatecited by 1
- 2026Leveraging Large Language Models for Causal Discovery: a Constraint-based, Argumentation-driven Approachcited by 1
- 2026Why LLMs Fail at Causal Discovery and How Interventional Agents Escapecited by 1
- 2025AutiHero: Engaging Parents in Creating Personalized, Multi-path Social Narratives for Autistic Childrencited by 0
- 2026LMT: A Bayesian Framework for Causal Discovery from Textual Alarm Records in Manufacturing Systemscited by 0
- 2026Reasoning Models Are Accurate but Unsound on Identificationcited by 0
- 2026Reasoning Models Are Accurate but Unsound on Identification2 Oct 2026
- 2026LMT: A Bayesian Framework for Causal Discovery from Textual Alarm Records in Manufacturing Systems3 Jun 2026
- 2026Why LLMs Fail at Causal Discovery and How Interventional Agents Escape26 May 2026
- 2026Leveraging Large Language Models for Causal Discovery: a Constraint-based, Argumentation-driven Approach18 Feb 2026
- 2025CRAwDAD: Causal Reasoning Augmentation with Dual-Agent Debate28 Nov 2025
- 2025Making LLMs Reliable When It Matters Most: A Five-Layer Architecture for High-Stakes Decisions10 Nov 2025
- 2025AutiHero: Engaging Parents in Creating Personalized, Multi-path Social Narratives for Autistic Children22 Sep 2025
- 2025When Large Language Models Meet Law: Dual-Lens Taxonomy, Technical Advances, and Ethical Governance10 Jul 2025
Similar, not cited
Close in wording, no citation either way
- 2026CausalArena: Benchmarking Causal Discovery in the Foundation Model Era
- 2026Step-by-Step Causality: Transparent Causal Discovery with Multi-Agent Tree-Query and Adversarial Confidence Estimation
- 2023Can We Utilize Pre-trained Language Models within Causal Discovery Algorithms?
- 2025CARE: Turning LLMs Into Causal Reasoning Expert
- 2025Causal-Copilot: An Autonomous Causal Analysis Agent
- 2025Correlation or Causation: Analyzing the Causal Structures of LLM and LRM Reasoning Process
- 2024Exploring Multi-Modal Data with Tool-Augmented LLM Agents for Precise Causal Discovery
- 2024Failure Modes of LLMs for Causal Reasoning on Narratives