Sequential change detection via backward confidence sequences
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Abstract (arXiv)
We present a simple reduction from sequential estimation to sequential changepoint detection (SCD). In short, suppose we are interested in detecting changepoints in some parameter or functional θ of the underlying distribution. We demonstrate that if we can construct a confidence sequence (CS) for θ, then we can also successfully perform SCD for θ. This is accomplished by checking if two CSs -- one forwards and the other backwards -- ever fail to intersect. Since the literature on CSs has been rapidly evolving recently, the reduction provided in this paper immediately solves several old and new change detection problems. Further, our "backward CS", constructed by reversing time, is new and potentially of independent interest. We provide strong nonasymptotic guarantees on the frequency of false alarms and detection delay, and demonstrate numerical effectiveness on several problems.
Key facts. Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 15 of its 41 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 6 Feb 2023.
Builds on
15 of 41 references.
References · 15
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3 more
- 2023Huber-Robust Confidence Sequencescited by 7
- 2021Adversarially robust change point detectioncited by 6
- 2022Online Kernel CUSUM for Change-Point Detectioncited by 6
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Citing papers per year: 2023: 1; 2024: 0; 2025: 2.
3 papers.
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- 2025Differentially Private E-Valuescited by 1
- 2023Online Heavy-tailed Change-point detectioncited by 0
- 2025Differentially Private E-Values21 Oct 2025
- 2025Prediction-Powered E-Values6 Feb 2025
- 2023Online Heavy-tailed Change-point detection15 Jun 2023