mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Sequential change detection via backward confidence sequences

arXiv 2302.02544 ↗First posted 6 Feb 2023math.ST cs.IT cs.LGcited by 3

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Abstract (arXiv)

We present a simple reduction from sequential estimation to sequential changepoint detection (SCD). In short, suppose we are interested in detecting changepoints in some parameter or functional θ of the underlying distribution. We demonstrate that if we can construct a confidence sequence (CS) for θ, then we can also successfully perform SCD for θ. This is accomplished by checking if two CSs -- one forwards and the other backwards -- ever fail to intersect. Since the literature on CSs has been rapidly evolving recently, the reduction provided in this paper immediately solves several old and new change detection problems. Further, our "backward CS", constructed by reversing time, is new and potentially of independent interest. We provide strong nonasymptotic guarantees on the frequency of false alarms and detection delay, and demonstrate numerical effectiveness on several problems.

Key facts. Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 15 of its 41 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 6 Feb 2023.

Builds on

15 of 41 references.

References · 15

  1. 2019Online Learning: A Modern Introduction Using Convex Optimizationcited by 407
  2. 2017On Kernelized Multi-armed Banditscited by 348
  3. 2018Time-uniform, nonparametric, nonasymptotic confidence sequencescited by 220
  4. 2020Estimating means of bounded random variables by bettingcited by 164
  5. 2021Tracking the risk of a deployed model and detecting harmful distribution shiftscited by 38
  6. 2019Sequential estimation of quantiles with applications to A/B-testing and best-arm identificationcited by 27
  7. 2021Martingale Methods for Sequential Estimation of Convex Functionals and Divergencescited by 17
  8. 2022Catoni-style confidence sequences for heavy-tailed mean estimationcited by 17
  9. 2022Bregman Deviations of Generic Exponential Familiescited by 13
  10. 2019Change Detection with the Kernel Cumulative Sum Algorithmcited by 12
  11. 2016Sequential change-point detection based on nearest neighborscited by 11
  12. 2018Differentially Private Change-Point Detectioncited by 7
3 more
  1. 2023Huber-Robust Confidence Sequencescited by 7
  2. 2021Adversarially robust change point detectioncited by 6
  3. 2022Online Kernel CUSUM for Change-Point Detectioncited by 6

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Cited by year

Citing papers per year: 2023: 1; 2024: 0; 2025: 2.

3 papers.