Image-based Geo-localization for Robotics: Are Black-box Vision-Language Models there yet?

The advances in Vision-Language models (VLMs) offer exciting opportunities for robotic applications involving image geo-localization - the problem of identifying the geo-coordinates of a place based on visual data only. In robotics, such capabilities are particularly relevant to the global re-localization stage of the kidnapped robot problem, where a robot must recover its pose without prior knowledge of its location. Recent work has focused on using a VLM as embedding extractor for geo-localization. However, the most sophisticated VLMs may only be available as black boxes that are accessible through an API, and come with a number of limitations: there is no access to training data, model features and gradients; retraining is not possible; and the number of predictions may be limited by the API. The potential of state-of-the-art VLMs as a stand-alone, zero-shot geo-localization systems at planet scale using a single text-based prompt is largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, this paper undertakes the first systematic study, to the best of our knowledge, to investigate state-of-the-art generative VLMs as stand-alone, zero-shot geo-localization systems in a black-box setting with realistic constraints. We consider three main scenarios for this thorough investigation: a) fixed text-based prompt; b) semantically-equivalent text-based prompts; and c) semantically-equivalent query images. Beyond standard accuracy, we introduce model consistency as a metric to account for the auto-regressive and probabilistic nature of generative VLMs. Our findings reveal that while VLMs demonstrate strong coarse-level localization and navigation priors, fine-grained localization degrades significantly under realistic variations, highlighting reliability challenges for deploying generative VLMs in robust, open-world robotic navigation systems.