FedGlu: A personalized federated learning-based glucose forecasting algorithm for improved performance in glycemic excursion regions

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices provide real-time glucose monitoring and timely alerts for glycemic excursions, improving glycemic control among patients with diabetes. However, identifying rare events like hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia remain challenging due to their infrequency. Moreover, limited access to sensitive patient data hampers the development of robust machine learning models. Our objective is to accurately predict glycemic excursions while addressing data privacy concerns. To tackle excursion prediction, we propose a novel Hypo-Hyper (HH) loss function, which significantly improves performance in the glycemic excursion regions. The HH loss function demonstrates a 46% improvement over mean-squared error (MSE) loss across 125 patients. To address privacy concerns, we propose FedGlu, a machine learning model trained in a federated learning (FL) framework. FL allows collaborative learning without sharing sensitive data by training models locally and sharing only model parameters across other patients. FedGlu achieves a 35% superior glycemic excursion detection rate compared to local models. This improvement translates to enhanced performance in predicting both, hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia, for 105 out of 125 patients. These results underscore the effectiveness of the proposed HH loss function in augmenting the predictive capabilities of glucose predictions. Moreover, implementing models within a federated learning framework not only ensures better predictive capabilities but also safeguards sensitive data concurrently.