A Law of Next-Token Prediction in Large Language Models
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Abstract (arXiv)
Large language models (LLMs) have been widely employed across various application domains, yet their black-box nature poses significant challenges to understanding how these models process input data internally to make predictions. In this paper, we introduce a precise and quantitative law that governs the learning of contextualized token embeddings through intermediate layers in pre-trained LLMs for next-token prediction. Our findings reveal that each layer contributes equally to enhancing prediction accuracy, from the lowest to the highest layer -- a universal phenomenon observed across a diverse array of open-source LLMs, irrespective of their architectures or pre-training data. We demonstrate that this law offers new perspectives and actionable insights to inform and guide practices in LLM development and applications, including model scaling, pre-training tasks, and interpretation.
Key facts. Cited by 15 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 36 of its 50 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 24 Aug 2024.
Builds on
36 of 50 references.
References · 36
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Citing papers per year: 2024: 1; 2025: 9; 2026: 5.
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- 2025LLM Post-Training: A Deep Dive into Reasoning Large Language Modelscited by 129
- 2025Exposing Numeracy Gaps: A Benchmark to Evaluate Fundamental Numerical Abilities in Large Language Modelscited by 14
- 2025L-MTP: Leap Multi-Token Prediction Beyond Adjacent Context for Large Language Modelscited by 14
- 2025From Compression to Expression: A Layerwise Analysis of In-Context Learningcited by 5
- 2025Reasoning Bias of Next Token Prediction Trainingcited by 3
- 2026NITP: Next Implicit Token Prediction for LLM Pre-trainingcited by 3
- 2025Dynamics of Spontaneous Topic Changes in Next Token Prediction with Self-Attentioncited by 2
- 2025Towards Understanding Transformers in Learning Random Walkscited by 1
- 2026Can Unified Generation and Understanding Models Maintain Semantic Equivalence Across Different Output Modalities?cited by 1
- 2024Enhancing Knowledge Distillation for LLMs with Response-Priming Promptingcited by 0
- 2025Dual Filter: A Transformer-like Inference Architecture for Hidden Markov Modelscited by 0
- 2025A document is worth a structured record: Principled inductive bias design for document recognitioncited by 0
3 more
- 2026Toward Epistemic Stability: Engineering Consistent Procedures for Industrial LLM Hallucination Reductioncited by 0
- 2026SparSEEty: Extracting Tokens from Sparsity-Exploiting LLM Serving Systems via Deterministic Side Channelscited by 0
- 2026FLEET: From Logits Entropy to Enhanced Trajectories in Text Generationcited by 0
- 2026FLEET: From Logits Entropy to Enhanced Trajectories in Text Generation23 Sep 2026
- 2026SparSEEty: Extracting Tokens from Sparsity-Exploiting LLM Serving Systems via Deterministic Side Channels4 Aug 2026
- 2026NITP: Next Implicit Token Prediction for LLM Pre-training24 May 2026
- 2026Toward Epistemic Stability: Engineering Consistent Procedures for Industrial LLM Hallucination Reduction8 Mar 2026
- 2026Can Unified Generation and Understanding Models Maintain Semantic Equivalence Across Different Output Modalities?27 Feb 2026
- 2025Towards Understanding Transformers in Learning Random Walks28 Nov 2025
- 2025A document is worth a structured record: Principled inductive bias design for document recognition11 Jul 2025
- 2025L-MTP: Leap Multi-Token Prediction Beyond Adjacent Context for Large Language Models23 May 2025
- 2025From Compression to Expression: A Layerwise Analysis of In-Context Learning22 May 2025
- 2025Dual Filter: A Transformer-like Inference Architecture for Hidden Markov Models1 May 2025
- 2025LLM Post-Training: A Deep Dive into Reasoning Large Language Models28 Feb 2025
- 2025Exposing Numeracy Gaps: A Benchmark to Evaluate Fundamental Numerical Abilities in Large Language Models16 Feb 2025
- 2025LLM Post-Training: A Deep Dive into Reasoning Large Language Modelscited by 129
- 2025Reasoning Bias of Next Token Prediction Trainingcited by 3
- 2025LLM Post-Training: A Deep Dive into Reasoning Large Language Models28 Feb 2025
- 2025Reasoning Bias of Next Token Prediction Training4 Feb 2025
- 2026NITP: Next Implicit Token Prediction for LLM Pre-training24 May 2026
- 2025Exposing Numeracy Gaps: A Benchmark to Evaluate Fundamental Numerical Abilities in Large Language Modelscited by 14
- 2025L-MTP: Leap Multi-Token Prediction Beyond Adjacent Context for Large Language Modelscited by 14
- 2025Dynamics of Spontaneous Topic Changes in Next Token Prediction with Self-Attentioncited by 2
- 2025Towards Understanding Transformers in Learning Random Walkscited by 1
- 2024Enhancing Knowledge Distillation for LLMs with Response-Priming Promptingcited by 0
- 2025Dual Filter: A Transformer-like Inference Architecture for Hidden Markov Modelscited by 0
- 2025A document is worth a structured record: Principled inductive bias design for document recognitioncited by 0
- 2026Toward Epistemic Stability: Engineering Consistent Procedures for Industrial LLM Hallucination Reductioncited by 0
- 2026FLEET: From Logits Entropy to Enhanced Trajectories in Text Generationcited by 0
- 2026FLEET: From Logits Entropy to Enhanced Trajectories in Text Generation23 Sep 2026
- 2026Toward Epistemic Stability: Engineering Consistent Procedures for Industrial LLM Hallucination Reduction8 Mar 2026
- 2025Towards Understanding Transformers in Learning Random Walks28 Nov 2025
- 2025A document is worth a structured record: Principled inductive bias design for document recognition11 Jul 2025
- 2025L-MTP: Leap Multi-Token Prediction Beyond Adjacent Context for Large Language Models23 May 2025
- 2025Dual Filter: A Transformer-like Inference Architecture for Hidden Markov Models1 May 2025
- 2025Exposing Numeracy Gaps: A Benchmark to Evaluate Fundamental Numerical Abilities in Large Language Models16 Feb 2025
- 2025Dynamics of Spontaneous Topic Changes in Next Token Prediction with Self-Attention10 Jan 2025
- 2024Enhancing Knowledge Distillation for LLMs with Response-Priming Prompting18 Dec 2024