Decision-Making Behavior Evaluation Framework for LLMs under Uncertain Context
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Abstract (arXiv)
When making decisions under uncertainty, individuals often deviate from rational behavior, which can be evaluated across three dimensions: risk preference, probability weighting, and loss aversion. Given the widespread use of large language models (LLMs) in decision-making processes, it is crucial to assess whether their behavior aligns with human norms and ethical expectations or exhibits potential biases. Several empirical studies have investigated the rationality and social behavior performance of LLMs, yet their internal decision-making tendencies and capabilities remain inadequately understood. This paper proposes a framework, grounded in behavioral economics, to evaluate the decision-making behaviors of LLMs. Through a multiple-choice-list experiment, we estimate the degree of risk preference, probability weighting, and loss aversion in a context-free setting for three commercial LLMs: ChatGPT-4.0-Turbo, Claude-3-Opus, and Gemini-1.0-pro. Our results reveal that LLMs generally exhibit patterns similar to humans, such as risk aversion and loss aversion, with a tendency to overweight small probabilities. However, there are significant variations in the degree to which these behaviors are expressed across different LLMs. We also explore their behavior when embedded with socio-demographic features, uncovering significant disparities. For instance, when modeled with attributes of sexual minority groups or physical disabilities, Claude-3-Opus displays increased risk aversion, leading to more conservative choices. These findings underscore the need for careful consideration of the ethical implications and potential biases in deploying LLMs in decision-making scenarios. Therefore, this study advocates for developing standards and guidelines to ensure that LLMs operate within ethical boundaries while enhancing their utility in complex decision-making environments.
Key facts. Cited by 41 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 14 of its 46 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 10 Jun 2024.
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14 of 46 references.
References · 14
- 2020Language Models are Few-Shot Learnerscited by 32,199
- 2022Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Modelscited by 12,302
- 2019BART: Denoising Sequence-to-Sequence Pre-training for Natural Language Generation, Translation, and Comprehensioncited by 5,874
- 2022Large Language Models Are Human-Level Prompt Engineerscited by 1,020
- 2023BloombergGPT: A Large Language Model for Financecited by 923
- 2021GLaM: Efficient Scaling of Language Models with Mixture-of-Expertscited by 890
- 2024SnapKV: LLM Knows What You are Looking for Before Generationcited by 848
- 2023Large Language Models as Optimizerscited by 830
- 2023Can Large Language Models Transform Computational Social Science?cited by 245
- 2023Playing repeated games with Large Language Modelscited by 213
- 2023Bias Runs Deep: Implicit Reasoning Biases in Persona-Assigned LLMscited by 191
- 2023Can Large Language Models Serve as Rational Players in Game Theory? A Systematic Analysiscited by 91
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Citing papers per year: 2024: 2; 2025: 24; 2026: 15.
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- 2025The Prompt Makes the Person(a): A Systematic Evaluation of Sociodemographic Persona Prompting for Large Language Modelscited by 40
- 2024A Survey on Large Language Model-Based Social Agents in Game-Theoretic Scenarioscited by 23
- 2025PDE-Controller: LLMs for Autoformalization and Reasoning of PDEscited by 23
- 2025Constrained Discrete Diffusioncited by 16
- 2025Do Large Language Models Know What They Are Capable Of?cited by 9
- 2026OEP: Poisoning Self-Evolving LLM Agents via Locally Correct but Non-Transferable Experiencescited by 9
- 2025Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Exploring Probabilistic Reasoning Capabilities of LLMscited by 8
- 2025AIM-Bench: Evaluating Decision-making Biases of Agentic LLM as Inventory Managercited by 6
- 2026Are LLM Decisions Faithful to Verbal Confidence?cited by 6
- 2025Answer, Refuse, or Guess? Investigating Risk-Aware Decision Making in Language Modelscited by 5
- 2025Teaching AI to Handle Exceptions: Supervised Fine-Tuning with Human-Aligned Judgmentcited by 4
- 2025Noise, Adaptation, and Strategy: Assessing LLM Fidelity in Decision-Makingcited by 4
29 more
- 2025Large Language Newsvendor: Decision Biases and Cognitive Mechanismscited by 4
- 2026Can Revealed Preferences Clarify LLM Alignment and Steering?cited by 4
- 2024An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior Through LLMscited by 3
- 2025Comparing Exploration-Exploitation Strategies of LLMs and Humans: Insights from Standard Multi-armed Bandit Experimentscited by 3
- 2025Rethinking Prospect Theory for LLMs: Revealing the Instability of Decision-Making under Epistemic Uncertaintycited by 3
- 2026Would a Large Language Model Pay Extra for a View? Inferring Willingness to Pay from Subjective Choicescited by 3
- 2025Causality Is Key to Understand and Balance Multiple Goals in Trustworthy ML and Foundation Modelscited by 2
- 2025Who Gets the Kidney? Human-AI Alignment, Indecision, and Moral Valuescited by 2
- 2025Adaptive Preference Optimization with Uncertainty-aware Utility Anchorcited by 2
- 2025Can Large Language Models Develop Gambling Addiction?cited by 2
- 2026Discovering Differences in Strategic Behavior Between Humans and LLMscited by 2
- 2026Apparent Psychological Profiles of Large Language Models are Largely a Measurement Artifactcited by 2
- 2025Cash or Comfort? How LLMs Value Your Inconveniencecited by 1
- 2025GG-BBQ: German Gender Bias Benchmark for Question Answeringcited by 1
- 2025Getting out of the Big-Muddy: Escalation of Commitment in LLMscited by 1
- 2025Risk Profiling and Modulation for LLMscited by 1
- 2026Identity-Robust Language Model Generation via Content Integrity Preservationcited by 1
- 2026Funny or Persuasive, but Not Both: Evaluating Fine-Grained Multi-Concept Control in LLMscited by 1
- 2026Fin-Bias: Comprehensive Evaluation for LLM Decision-Making under human bias in Finance Domaincited by 1
- 2026Out-of-Distribution Generalization of Risk Aversion in Language Modelscited by 1
- 2025A Computational Theory for Efficient Mini Agent Evaluation with Causal Guaranteescited by 0
- 2025AI Agents and Hard Choicescited by 0
- 2025Artificial Finance: How AI Thinks About Moneycited by 0
- 2025BEACON: A Unified Behavioral-Tactical Framework for Explainable Cybercrime Analysis with Large Language Modelscited by 0
- 2026Status Hierarchies in Language Modelscited by 0
- 2026Language Models Exhibit Inconsistent Biases Towards Algorithmic Agents and Human Expertscited by 0
- 2026Dynamics of Cognitive Heterogeneity: Investigating Behavioral Biases in Multi-Stage Supply Chains with LLM-Based Simulationcited by 0
- 2026Decisive: Guiding User Decisions with Optimal Preference Elicitation from Unstructured Documentscited by 0
- 2026LLM Consumer Behavior Theory: Foundations of a Novel Research Fieldcited by 0
- 2026Out-of-Distribution Generalization of Risk Aversion in Language Models2 Jul 2026
- 2026Apparent Psychological Profiles of Large Language Models are Largely a Measurement Artifact18 Jun 2026
- 2026LLM Consumer Behavior Theory: Foundations of a Novel Research Field16 Jun 2026
- 2026OEP: Poisoning Self-Evolving LLM Agents via Locally Correct but Non-Transferable Experiences18 May 2026
- 2026Fin-Bias: Comprehensive Evaluation for LLM Decision-Making under human bias in Finance Domain9 May 2026
- 2026Can Revealed Preferences Clarify LLM Alignment and Steering?8 May 2026
- 2026Decisive: Guiding User Decisions with Optimal Preference Elicitation from Unstructured Documents20 Apr 2026
- 2026Dynamics of Cognitive Heterogeneity: Investigating Behavioral Biases in Multi-Stage Supply Chains with LLM-Based Simulation19 Apr 2026
- 2026Language Models Exhibit Inconsistent Biases Towards Algorithmic Agents and Human Experts25 Feb 2026
- 2026Discovering Differences in Strategic Behavior Between Humans and LLMs10 Feb 2026
- 2026Would a Large Language Model Pay Extra for a View? Inferring Willingness to Pay from Subjective Choices10 Feb 2026
- 2026Funny or Persuasive, but Not Both: Evaluating Fine-Grained Multi-Concept Control in LLMs26 Jan 2026
29 more
- 2026Status Hierarchies in Language Models24 Jan 2026
- 2026Identity-Robust Language Model Generation via Content Integrity Preservation14 Jan 2026
- 2026Are LLM Decisions Faithful to Verbal Confidence?12 Jan 2026
- 2025Do Large Language Models Know What They Are Capable Of?31 Dec 2025
- 2025Large Language Newsvendor: Decision Biases and Cognitive Mechanisms14 Dec 2025
- 2025BEACON: A Unified Behavioral-Tactical Framework for Explainable Cybercrime Analysis with Large Language Models6 Dec 2025
- 2025Risk Profiling and Modulation for LLMs27 Sep 2025
- 2025Can Large Language Models Develop Gambling Addiction?26 Sep 2025
- 2025Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Exploring Probabilistic Reasoning Capabilities of LLMs12 Sep 2025
- 2025Adaptive Preference Optimization with Uncertainty-aware Utility Anchor3 Sep 2025
- 2025Noise, Adaptation, and Strategy: Assessing LLM Fidelity in Decision-Making21 Aug 2025
- 2025AIM-Bench: Evaluating Decision-making Biases of Agentic LLM as Inventory Manager15 Aug 2025
- 2025Rethinking Prospect Theory for LLMs: Revealing the Instability of Decision-Making under Epistemic Uncertainty12 Aug 2025
- 2025Getting out of the Big-Muddy: Escalation of Commitment in LLMs3 Aug 2025
- 2025GG-BBQ: German Gender Bias Benchmark for Question Answering22 Jul 2025
- 2025The Prompt Makes the Person(a): A Systematic Evaluation of Sociodemographic Persona Prompting for Large Language Models21 Jul 2025
- 2025Artificial Finance: How AI Thinks About Money15 Jul 2025
- 2025Cash or Comfort? How LLMs Value Your Inconvenience20 Jun 2025
- 2025Who Gets the Kidney? Human-AI Alignment, Indecision, and Moral Values30 May 2025
- 2025Comparing Exploration-Exploitation Strategies of LLMs and Humans: Insights from Standard Multi-armed Bandit Experiments15 May 2025
- 2025AI Agents and Hard Choices18 Apr 2025
- 2025A Computational Theory for Efficient Mini Agent Evaluation with Causal Guarantees27 Mar 2025
- 2025Constrained Discrete Diffusion12 Mar 2025
- 2025Teaching AI to Handle Exceptions: Supervised Fine-Tuning with Human-Aligned Judgment4 Mar 2025
- 2025Answer, Refuse, or Guess? Investigating Risk-Aware Decision Making in Language Models3 Mar 2025
- 2025Causality Is Key to Understand and Balance Multiple Goals in Trustworthy ML and Foundation Models28 Feb 2025
- 2025PDE-Controller: LLMs for Autoformalization and Reasoning of PDEs3 Feb 2025
- 2024A Survey on Large Language Model-Based Social Agents in Game-Theoretic Scenarios5 Dec 2024
- 2024An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior Through LLMs12 Sep 2024
- 2024A Survey on Large Language Model-Based Social Agents in Game-Theoretic Scenarioscited by 23
- 2026OEP: Poisoning Self-Evolving LLM Agents via Locally Correct but Non-Transferable Experiencescited by 9
- 2025Teaching AI to Handle Exceptions: Supervised Fine-Tuning with Human-Aligned Judgmentcited by 4
- 2026Language Models Exhibit Inconsistent Biases Towards Algorithmic Agents and Human Expertscited by 0
- 2026Dynamics of Cognitive Heterogeneity: Investigating Behavioral Biases in Multi-Stage Supply Chains with LLM-Based Simulationcited by 0
- 2026LLM Consumer Behavior Theory: Foundations of a Novel Research Fieldcited by 0
- 2026LLM Consumer Behavior Theory: Foundations of a Novel Research Field16 Jun 2026
- 2026OEP: Poisoning Self-Evolving LLM Agents via Locally Correct but Non-Transferable Experiences18 May 2026
- 2026Dynamics of Cognitive Heterogeneity: Investigating Behavioral Biases in Multi-Stage Supply Chains with LLM-Based Simulation19 Apr 2026
- 2026Language Models Exhibit Inconsistent Biases Towards Algorithmic Agents and Human Experts25 Feb 2026
- 2025Teaching AI to Handle Exceptions: Supervised Fine-Tuning with Human-Aligned Judgment4 Mar 2025
- 2024A Survey on Large Language Model-Based Social Agents in Game-Theoretic Scenarios5 Dec 2024
- 2025PDE-Controller: LLMs for Autoformalization and Reasoning of PDEscited by 23
- 2025Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Exploring Probabilistic Reasoning Capabilities of LLMscited by 8
- 2025AIM-Bench: Evaluating Decision-making Biases of Agentic LLM as Inventory Managercited by 6
- 2025Rethinking Prospect Theory for LLMs: Revealing the Instability of Decision-Making under Epistemic Uncertaintycited by 3
- 2025Artificial Finance: How AI Thinks About Moneycited by 0
- 2025Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Exploring Probabilistic Reasoning Capabilities of LLMs12 Sep 2025
- 2025AIM-Bench: Evaluating Decision-making Biases of Agentic LLM as Inventory Manager15 Aug 2025
- 2025Rethinking Prospect Theory for LLMs: Revealing the Instability of Decision-Making under Epistemic Uncertainty12 Aug 2025
- 2025Artificial Finance: How AI Thinks About Money15 Jul 2025
- 2025PDE-Controller: LLMs for Autoformalization and Reasoning of PDEs3 Feb 2025
- 2025Constrained Discrete Diffusioncited by 16
- 2025Constrained Discrete Diffusion12 Mar 2025
- 2025The Prompt Makes the Person(a): A Systematic Evaluation of Sociodemographic Persona Prompting for Large Language Modelscited by 40
- 2025Do Large Language Models Know What They Are Capable Of?cited by 9
- 2026Are LLM Decisions Faithful to Verbal Confidence?cited by 6
- 2025Answer, Refuse, or Guess? Investigating Risk-Aware Decision Making in Language Modelscited by 5
- 2025Noise, Adaptation, and Strategy: Assessing LLM Fidelity in Decision-Makingcited by 4
- 2025Large Language Newsvendor: Decision Biases and Cognitive Mechanismscited by 4
- 2024An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior Through LLMscited by 3
- 2025Comparing Exploration-Exploitation Strategies of LLMs and Humans: Insights from Standard Multi-armed Bandit Experimentscited by 3
- 2026Would a Large Language Model Pay Extra for a View? Inferring Willingness to Pay from Subjective Choicescited by 3
- 2025Causality Is Key to Understand and Balance Multiple Goals in Trustworthy ML and Foundation Modelscited by 2
- 2025Can Large Language Models Develop Gambling Addiction?cited by 2
- 2026Discovering Differences in Strategic Behavior Between Humans and LLMscited by 2
12 most cited of 26 All 26 (JSON)
- 2026Out-of-Distribution Generalization of Risk Aversion in Language Models2 Jul 2026
- 2026Apparent Psychological Profiles of Large Language Models are Largely a Measurement Artifact18 Jun 2026
- 2026Fin-Bias: Comprehensive Evaluation for LLM Decision-Making under human bias in Finance Domain9 May 2026
- 2026Decisive: Guiding User Decisions with Optimal Preference Elicitation from Unstructured Documents20 Apr 2026
- 2026Discovering Differences in Strategic Behavior Between Humans and LLMs10 Feb 2026
- 2026Would a Large Language Model Pay Extra for a View? Inferring Willingness to Pay from Subjective Choices10 Feb 2026
- 2026Funny or Persuasive, but Not Both: Evaluating Fine-Grained Multi-Concept Control in LLMs26 Jan 2026
- 2026Status Hierarchies in Language Models24 Jan 2026
- 2026Identity-Robust Language Model Generation via Content Integrity Preservation14 Jan 2026
- 2026Are LLM Decisions Faithful to Verbal Confidence?12 Jan 2026
- 2025Do Large Language Models Know What They Are Capable Of?31 Dec 2025
- 2025Large Language Newsvendor: Decision Biases and Cognitive Mechanisms14 Dec 2025
12 newest of 26 All 26 (JSON)