Complexity-Theoretic Implications of Multicalibration
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Abstract (arXiv)
We present connections between the recent literature on multigroup fairness for prediction algorithms and classical results in computational complexity. Multiaccurate predictors are correct in expectation on each member of an arbitrary collection of pre-specified sets. Multicalibrated predictors satisfy a stronger condition: they are calibrated on each set in the collection. Multiaccuracy is equivalent to a regularity notion for functions defined by Trevisan, Tulsiani, and Vadhan (2009). They showed that, given a class F of (possibly simple) functions, an arbitrarily complex function g can be approximated by a low-complexity function h that makes a small number of oracle calls to members of F, where the notion of approximation requires that h cannot be distinguished from g by members of F. This complexity-theoretic Regularity Lemma is known to have implications in different areas, including in complexity theory, additive number theory, information theory, graph theory, and cryptography. Starting from the stronger notion of multicalibration, we obtain stronger and more general versions of a number of applications of the Regularity Lemma, including the Hardcore Lemma, the Dense Model Theorem, and the equivalence of conditional pseudo-min-entropy and unpredictability. For example, we show that every boolean function (regardless of its hardness) has a small collection of disjoint hardcore sets, where the sizes of those hardcore sets are related to how balanced the function is on corresponding pieces of an efficient partition of the domain.
Key facts. Cited by 16 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 28 Dec 2023.
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Citing papers per year: 2024: 1; 2025: 9; 2026: 6.
16 papers.
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- 2025How Global Calibration Strengthens Multiaccuracycited by 8
- 2025When does a predictor know its own loss?cited by 7
- 2025Generalized and Unified Equivalences between Hardness and Pseudoentropycited by 5
- 2025Efficient Swap Multicalibration of Elicitable Propertiescited by 5
- 2025Improved Bounds for Swap Multicalibration and Swap Omnipredictioncited by 4
- 2025Calibration through the Lens of Indistinguishabilitycited by 4
- 2025Supersimulatorscited by 4
- 2025Efficient Calibration for Decision Makingcited by 3
- 2026An Efficient Black-Box Reduction from Online Learning to Multicalibration, and a New Route to Phi-Regret Minimizationcited by 3
- 2024The Sample Complexity of Smooth Boosting and the Tightness of the Hardcore Theoremcited by 2
- 2025Multicalibration Yields Better Matchingscited by 2
- 2026Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omnipredictioncited by 2
4 more
- 2026Augmented Feature Boosting for Multicalibration27 Sep 2026
- 2026Algorithmic Collusion and the Complexity of Information-Value-Free Equilibria19 Sep 2026
- 2026Defensive Boosting for Online Probabilistic Forecasting13 Aug 2026
- 2026Testing Distributions Against Bounded Distinguishers17 Jul 2026
- 2026Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omniprediction18 Jun 2026
- 2026An Efficient Black-Box Reduction from Online Learning to Multicalibration, and a New Route to Phi-Regret Minimization21 Apr 2026
- 2025Efficient Calibration for Decision Making17 Nov 2025
- 2025Multicalibration Yields Better Matchings14 Nov 2025
- 2025Efficient Swap Multicalibration of Elicitable Properties7 Nov 2025
- 2025Supersimulators22 Sep 2025
- 2025Calibration through the Lens of Indistinguishability2 Sep 2025
- 2025Generalized and Unified Equivalences between Hardness and Pseudoentropy8 Jul 2025
4 more
- 2025Improved Bounds for Swap Multicalibration and Swap Omniprediction27 May 2025
- 2025How Global Calibration Strengthens Multiaccuracy21 Apr 2025
- 2025When does a predictor know its own loss?27 Feb 2025
- 2024The Sample Complexity of Smooth Boosting and the Tightness of the Hardcore Theorem17 Sep 2024
- 2025How Global Calibration Strengthens Multiaccuracycited by 8
- 2025When does a predictor know its own loss?cited by 7
- 2025Generalized and Unified Equivalences between Hardness and Pseudoentropycited by 5
- 2025Efficient Swap Multicalibration of Elicitable Propertiescited by 5
- 2025Improved Bounds for Swap Multicalibration and Swap Omnipredictioncited by 4
- 2025Calibration through the Lens of Indistinguishabilitycited by 4
- 2025Supersimulatorscited by 4
- 2025Efficient Calibration for Decision Makingcited by 3
- 2026An Efficient Black-Box Reduction from Online Learning to Multicalibration, and a New Route to Phi-Regret Minimizationcited by 3
- 2024The Sample Complexity of Smooth Boosting and the Tightness of the Hardcore Theoremcited by 2
- 2025Multicalibration Yields Better Matchingscited by 2
- 2026Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omnipredictioncited by 2
12 most cited of 16 All 16 (JSON)
- 2026Augmented Feature Boosting for Multicalibration27 Sep 2026
- 2026Algorithmic Collusion and the Complexity of Information-Value-Free Equilibria19 Sep 2026
- 2026Defensive Boosting for Online Probabilistic Forecasting13 Aug 2026
- 2026Testing Distributions Against Bounded Distinguishers17 Jul 2026
- 2026Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omniprediction18 Jun 2026
- 2026An Efficient Black-Box Reduction from Online Learning to Multicalibration, and a New Route to Phi-Regret Minimization21 Apr 2026
- 2025Efficient Calibration for Decision Making17 Nov 2025
- 2025Multicalibration Yields Better Matchings14 Nov 2025
- 2025Efficient Swap Multicalibration of Elicitable Properties7 Nov 2025
- 2025Supersimulators22 Sep 2025
- 2025Calibration through the Lens of Indistinguishability2 Sep 2025
- 2025Generalized and Unified Equivalences between Hardness and Pseudoentropy8 Jul 2025
12 newest of 16 All 16 (JSON)