Will Code Remain a Relevant User Interface for End-User Programming with Generative AI Models?

The research field of end-user programming has largely been concerned with helping non-experts learn to code sufficiently well in order to achieve their tasks. Generative AI stands to obviate this entirely by allowing users to generate code from naturalistic language prompts. In this essay, we explore the extent to which "traditional" programming languages remain relevant for non-expert end-user programmers in a world with generative AI. We posit the "generative shift hypothesis": that generative AI will create qualitative and quantitative expansions in the traditional scope of end-user programming. We outline some reasons that traditional programming languages may still be relevant and useful for end-user programmers. We speculate whether each of these reasons might be fundamental and enduring, or whether they may disappear with further improvements and innovations in generative AI. Finally, we articulate a set of implications for end-user programming research, including the possibility of needing to revisit many well-established core concepts, such as Ko's learning barriers and Blackwell's attention investment model.