mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Post-hoc Uncertainty Learning using a Dirichlet Meta-Model

arXiv 2212.07359 ↗First posted 14 Dec 2022cs.LGcited by 31

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Abstract (arXiv)

It is known that neural networks have the problem of being over-confident when directly using the output label distribution to generate uncertainty measures. Existing methods mainly resolve this issue by retraining the entire model to impose the uncertainty quantification capability so that the learned model can achieve desired performance in accuracy and uncertainty prediction simultaneously. However, training the model from scratch is computationally expensive and may not be feasible in many situations. In this work, we consider a more practical post-hoc uncertainty learning setting, where a well-trained base model is given, and we focus on the uncertainty quantification task at the second stage of training. We propose a novel Bayesian meta-model to augment pre-trained models with better uncertainty quantification abilities, which is effective and computationally efficient. Our proposed method requires no additional training data and is flexible enough to quantify different uncertainties and easily adapt to different application settings, including out-of-domain data detection, misclassification detection, and trustworthy transfer learning. We demonstrate our proposed meta-model approach's flexibility and superior empirical performance on these applications over multiple representative image classification benchmarks.

Key facts. Cited by 31 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 25 of its 36 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 14 Dec 2022.

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25 of 36 references.

References · 25

  1. 2014Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognitioncited by 15,267
  2. 2015Faster R-CNN: Towards Real-Time Object Detection with Region Proposal Networkscited by 9,617
  3. 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,860
  4. 2015Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learningcited by 4,416
  5. 2016Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensemblescited by 3,888
  6. 2016Wide Residual Networkscited by 3,057
  7. 2017A Survey on Deep Learning in Medical Image Analysiscited by 1,182
  8. 2016End to End Learning for Self-Driving Carscited by 1,000
  9. 2018Deep Anomaly Detection with Outlier Exposurecited by 939
  10. 2019Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methodscited by 903
  11. 2018Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertaintycited by 728
  12. 2018Predictive Uncertainty Estimation via Prior Networkscited by 555
13 more
  1. 2019Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibrationcited by 359
  2. 2020Posterior Network: Uncertainty Estimation without OOD Samples via Density-Based Pseudo-Countscited by 163
  3. 2019Reverse KL-Divergence Training of Prior Networks: Improved Uncertainty and Adversarial Robustnesscited by 104
  4. 2021DEUP: Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Predictioncited by 102
  5. 2020Robust Out-of-distribution Detection for Neural Networkscited by 57
  6. 2017Model Selection in Bayesian Neural Networks via Horseshoe Priorscited by 52
  7. 2020Towards Maximizing the Representation Gap between In-Domain & Out-of-Distribution Examplescited by 40
  8. 2020Uncertainty Estimation Using a Single Deep Deterministic Neural Networkcited by 37
  9. 2020Being Bayesian about Categorical Probabilitycited by 35
  10. 2020Discriminative Jackknife: Quantifying Uncertainty in Deep Learning via Higher-Order Influence Functionscited by 34
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  12. 2018Confidence Scoring Using Whitebox Meta-models with Linear Classifier Probescited by 21
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Citing papers per year: 2023: 7; 2024: 5; 2025: 10; 2026: 9.

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  1. 2023Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensemblingcited by 113
  2. 2023Think Twice Before Selection: Federated Evidential Active Learning for Medical Image Analysis with Domain Shiftscited by 26
  3. 2024A Comprehensive Survey on Evidential Deep Learning and Its Applicationscited by 25
  4. 2024Are Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities of Evidential Deep Learning a Mirage?cited by 17
  5. 2023Uncertainty-aware Language Modeling for Selective Question Answeringcited by 16
  6. 2023How to Fix a Broken Confidence Estimator: Evaluating Post-hoc Methods for Selective Classification with Deep Neural Networkscited by 15
  7. 2024Revisiting Essential and Nonessential Settings of Evidential Deep Learningcited by 15
  8. 2024Post-hoc Probabilistic Vision-Language Modelscited by 13
  9. 2025Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning in Healthcare: A Surveycited by 11
  10. 2023Discretization-Induced Dirichlet Posterior for Robust Uncertainty Quantification on Regressioncited by 7
  11. 2024SAUC: Sparsity-Aware Uncertainty Calibration for Spatiotemporal Prediction with Graph Neural Networkscited by 4
  12. 2023A Confidence-based Acquisition Model for Self-supervised Active Learning and Label Correctioncited by 2
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  1. 2025Bi-directional Model Cascading with Proxy Confidencecited by 2
  2. 2025SurvUnc: A Meta-Model Based Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Survival Analysiscited by 2
  3. 2025Robust Adversarial Quantification via Conflict-Aware Evidential Deep Learningcited by 2
  4. 2026Evidential Transformation Network: Turning Pretrained Models into Evidential Models for Post-hoc Uncertainty Estimationcited by 2
  5. 2025Network Inversion for Uncertainty-Aware Out-of-Distribution Detectioncited by 1
  6. 2025Fairness-Aware Multi-view Evidential Learning with Adaptive Priorcited by 1
  7. 2023Machine Learning for Infectious Disease Risk Prediction: A Surveycited by 0
  8. 2025Reliable Radiologic Skeletal Muscle Area Assessment -- A Biomarker for Cancer Cachexia Diagnosiscited by 0
  9. 2025Guided Uncertainty Learning Using a Post-Hoc Evidential Meta-Modelcited by 0
  10. 2025Perceive, Act and Correct: Confidence Is Not Enough for Hyperspectral Classificationcited by 0
  11. 2025TIE: A Training-Inversion-Exclusion Framework for Visually Interpretable and Uncertainty-Guided Out-of-Distribution Detectioncited by 0
  12. 2026Robust Uncertainty Estimation under Distribution Shift via Difference Reconstructioncited by 0
  13. 2026From Misclassifications to Outliers: Joint Reliability Assessment in Classificationcited by 0
  14. 2026UA-Net: Uncertainty-Aware Network for TRISO Image Semantic Segmentationcited by 0
  15. 2026Post-hoc Selective Classification for Reliable Synthetic Image Detectioncited by 0
  16. 2026BESplit: Bias-Compensated Split Federated Learning with Evidential Aggregationcited by 0
  17. 2026Uncertainty quantification for trustworthy deep learning: Methods and measurescited by 0
  18. 2026Robust Evidential Learning Through Latent Consistencycited by 0
  19. 2026Localisation-Aware Uncertainty for Pretrained Object Detectioncited by 0