Post-hoc Uncertainty Learning using a Dirichlet Meta-Model
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Abstract (arXiv)
It is known that neural networks have the problem of being over-confident when directly using the output label distribution to generate uncertainty measures. Existing methods mainly resolve this issue by retraining the entire model to impose the uncertainty quantification capability so that the learned model can achieve desired performance in accuracy and uncertainty prediction simultaneously. However, training the model from scratch is computationally expensive and may not be feasible in many situations. In this work, we consider a more practical post-hoc uncertainty learning setting, where a well-trained base model is given, and we focus on the uncertainty quantification task at the second stage of training. We propose a novel Bayesian meta-model to augment pre-trained models with better uncertainty quantification abilities, which is effective and computationally efficient. Our proposed method requires no additional training data and is flexible enough to quantify different uncertainties and easily adapt to different application settings, including out-of-domain data detection, misclassification detection, and trustworthy transfer learning. We demonstrate our proposed meta-model approach's flexibility and superior empirical performance on these applications over multiple representative image classification benchmarks.
Key facts. Cited by 31 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 25 of its 36 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 14 Dec 2022.
Builds on
25 of 36 references.
References · 25
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- 2015Faster R-CNN: Towards Real-Time Object Detection with Region Proposal Networkscited by 9,617
- 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,860
- 2015Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learningcited by 4,416
- 2016Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensemblescited by 3,888
- 2016Wide Residual Networkscited by 3,057
- 2017A Survey on Deep Learning in Medical Image Analysiscited by 1,182
- 2016End to End Learning for Self-Driving Carscited by 1,000
- 2018Deep Anomaly Detection with Outlier Exposurecited by 939
- 2019Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methodscited by 903
- 2018Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertaintycited by 728
- 2018Predictive Uncertainty Estimation via Prior Networkscited by 555
13 more
- 2019Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibrationcited by 359
- 2020Posterior Network: Uncertainty Estimation without OOD Samples via Density-Based Pseudo-Countscited by 163
- 2019Reverse KL-Divergence Training of Prior Networks: Improved Uncertainty and Adversarial Robustnesscited by 104
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Citing papers per year: 2023: 7; 2024: 5; 2025: 10; 2026: 9.
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- 2026UA-Net: Uncertainty-Aware Network for TRISO Image Semantic Segmentation16 Apr 2026
- 2026Evidential Transformation Network: Turning Pretrained Models into Evidential Models for Post-hoc Uncertainty Estimation9 Apr 2026
- 2026From Misclassifications to Outliers: Joint Reliability Assessment in Classification4 Mar 2026
- 2026Robust Uncertainty Estimation under Distribution Shift via Difference Reconstruction27 Jan 2026
- 2025TIE: A Training-Inversion-Exclusion Framework for Visually Interpretable and Uncertainty-Guided Out-of-Distribution Detection28 Nov 2025
- 2025Perceive, Act and Correct: Confidence Is Not Enough for Hyperspectral Classification13 Nov 2025
- 2025Guided Uncertainty Learning Using a Post-Hoc Evidential Meta-Model29 Sep 2025
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- 2025Robust Adversarial Quantification via Conflict-Aware Evidential Deep Learning6 Jun 2025
- 2025Network Inversion for Uncertainty-Aware Out-of-Distribution Detection29 May 2025
- 2025SurvUnc: A Meta-Model Based Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Survival Analysis20 May 2025
- 2025Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning in Healthcare: A Survey4 May 2025
- 2025Bi-directional Model Cascading with Proxy Confidence27 Apr 2025
- 2025Reliable Radiologic Skeletal Muscle Area Assessment -- A Biomarker for Cancer Cachexia Diagnosis19 Mar 2025
- 2024Post-hoc Probabilistic Vision-Language Models8 Dec 2024
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- 2024SAUC: Sparsity-Aware Uncertainty Calibration for Spatiotemporal Prediction with Graph Neural Networks13 Sep 2024
- 2024A Comprehensive Survey on Evidential Deep Learning and Its Applications7 Sep 2024
- 2024Are Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities of Evidential Deep Learning a Mirage?9 Feb 2024
- 2023Think Twice Before Selection: Federated Evidential Active Learning for Medical Image Analysis with Domain Shifts5 Dec 2023
- 2023Uncertainty-aware Language Modeling for Selective Question Answering26 Nov 2023
- 2023Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensembling15 Nov 2023
- 2023A Confidence-based Acquisition Model for Self-supervised Active Learning and Label Correction13 Oct 2023
- 2023Discretization-Induced Dirichlet Posterior for Robust Uncertainty Quantification on Regression17 Aug 2023
- 2023Machine Learning for Infectious Disease Risk Prediction: A Survey6 Aug 2023
- 2023How to Fix a Broken Confidence Estimator: Evaluating Post-hoc Methods for Selective Classification with Deep Neural Networks24 May 2023
- 2024Post-hoc Probabilistic Vision-Language Modelscited by 13
- 2024Post-hoc Probabilistic Vision-Language Models8 Dec 2024
- 2023Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensemblingcited by 113
- 2023Think Twice Before Selection: Federated Evidential Active Learning for Medical Image Analysis with Domain Shiftscited by 26
- 2024A Comprehensive Survey on Evidential Deep Learning and Its Applicationscited by 25
- 2024Are Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities of Evidential Deep Learning a Mirage?cited by 17
- 2023Uncertainty-aware Language Modeling for Selective Question Answeringcited by 16
- 2023How to Fix a Broken Confidence Estimator: Evaluating Post-hoc Methods for Selective Classification with Deep Neural Networkscited by 15
- 2024Revisiting Essential and Nonessential Settings of Evidential Deep Learningcited by 15
- 2025Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning in Healthcare: A Surveycited by 11
- 2023Discretization-Induced Dirichlet Posterior for Robust Uncertainty Quantification on Regressioncited by 7
- 2024SAUC: Sparsity-Aware Uncertainty Calibration for Spatiotemporal Prediction with Graph Neural Networkscited by 4
- 2023A Confidence-based Acquisition Model for Self-supervised Active Learning and Label Correctioncited by 2
- 2025Bi-directional Model Cascading with Proxy Confidencecited by 2
12 most cited of 30 All 30 (JSON)
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- 2026Uncertainty quantification for trustworthy deep learning: Methods and measures30 Jul 2026
- 2026BESplit: Bias-Compensated Split Federated Learning with Evidential Aggregation17 May 2026
- 2026Post-hoc Selective Classification for Reliable Synthetic Image Detection9 May 2026
- 2026UA-Net: Uncertainty-Aware Network for TRISO Image Semantic Segmentation16 Apr 2026
- 2026Evidential Transformation Network: Turning Pretrained Models into Evidential Models for Post-hoc Uncertainty Estimation9 Apr 2026
- 2026From Misclassifications to Outliers: Joint Reliability Assessment in Classification4 Mar 2026
- 2026Robust Uncertainty Estimation under Distribution Shift via Difference Reconstruction27 Jan 2026
- 2025TIE: A Training-Inversion-Exclusion Framework for Visually Interpretable and Uncertainty-Guided Out-of-Distribution Detection28 Nov 2025
- 2025Perceive, Act and Correct: Confidence Is Not Enough for Hyperspectral Classification13 Nov 2025
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12 newest of 30 All 30 (JSON)