mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Scoring Rules for Performative Binary Prediction

arXiv 2207.02847 ↗First posted 5 Jul 2022cs.LG cs.AIcited by 3

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Abstract (arXiv)

We construct a model of expert prediction where predictions can influence the state of the world. Under this model, we show through theoretical and numerical results that proper scoring rules can incentivize experts to manipulate the world with their predictions. We also construct a simple class of scoring rules that avoids this problem.

Key facts. Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 14 of its 21 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 5 Jul 2022.

Builds on

14 of 21 references.

References · 14

  1. 2016Concrete Problems in AI Safetycited by 1,582
  2. 2020Performative Predictioncited by 318
  3. 2015Strategic Classificationcited by 256
  4. 2018The Social Cost of Strategic Classificationcited by 105
  5. 2018How Do Classifiers Induce Agents To Invest Effort Strategically?cited by 82
  6. 2018The Disparate Effects of Strategic Manipulationcited by 75
  7. 2021Agent Incentives: A Causal Perspectivecited by 51
  8. 2019The Disparate Equilibria of Algorithmic Decision Making when Individuals Invest Rationallycited by 41
  9. 2017Interventions over Predictions: Reframing the Ethical Debate for Actuarial Risk Assessmentcited by 16
  10. 2020No-Regret and Incentive-Compatible Online Learningcited by 14
  11. 2017Good and safe uses of AI Oraclescited by 13
  12. 2020Binary Scoring Rules that Incentivize Precisioncited by 12
2 more
  1. 2017Online Prediction with Selfish Expertscited by 10
  2. 2021Efficient Competitions and Online Learning with Strategic Forecasterscited by 9

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Cited by year

Citing papers per year: 2023: 1; 2024: 1; 2025: 1.

3 papers.

  1. 2023Incentivizing honest performative predictions with proper scoring rulescited by 9
  2. 2024Joint Scoring Rules: Zero-Sum Competition Avoids Performative Predictioncited by 1
  3. 2025Evolutionary Prediction Gamescited by 0