mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

A Trust Crisis In Simulation-Based Inference? Your Posterior Approximations Can Be Unfaithful

arXiv 2110.06581 ↗First posted 13 Oct 2021stat.ML cs.LGcited by 28

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Abstract (arXiv)

We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our results show that all benchmarked algorithms -- (Sequential) Neural Posterior Estimation, (Sequential) Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood and variants of Approximate Bayesian Computation -- can yield overconfident posterior approximations, which makes them unreliable for scientific use cases and falsificationist inquiry. Failing to address this issue may reduce the range of applicability of simulation-based inference. For this reason, we argue that research efforts should be made towards theoretical and methodological developments of conservative approximate inference algorithms and present research directions towards this objective. In this regard, we show empirical evidence that ensembling posterior surrogates provides more reliable approximations and mitigates the issue.

Key facts. Cited by 28 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 28 of its 74 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 13 Oct 2021.

Builds on

28 of 74 references.

References · 28

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16 more
  1. 2015Training generative neural networks via Maximum Mean Discrepancy optimizationcited by 151
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  3. 2020On Contrastive Learning for Likelihood-free Inferencecited by 98
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Citing papers per year: 2022: 1; 2023: 6; 2024: 7; 2025: 5; 2026: 9.

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  1. 2024All-in-one simulation-based inferencecited by 74
  2. 2022Sequential Neural Score Estimation: Likelihood-Free Inference with Conditional Score Based Diffusion Modelscited by 50
  3. 2023JANA: Jointly Amortized Neural Approximation of Complex Bayesian Modelscited by 41
  4. 2023Adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inferencecited by 17
  5. 2023Hierarchical Neural Simulation-Based Inference Over Event Ensemblescited by 9
  6. 2025G-Sim: Generative Simulations with Large Language Models and Gradient-Free Calibrationcited by 8
  7. 2023AI for Science: An Emerging Agendacited by 5
  8. 2024Simulation-Based Inference with Quantile Regressioncited by 4
  9. 2024Conformal Calibration of Statistical Confidence Setscited by 3
  10. 2023Discriminative calibration: Check Bayesian computation from simulations and flexible classifiercited by 2
  11. 2026From Mice to Trains: Amortized Bayesian Inference on Graph Datacited by 2
  12. 2024SoftCVI: Contrastive variational inference with self-generated soft labelscited by 1
16 more
  1. 2024Physically Interpretable Probabilistic Domain Characterizationcited by 1
  2. 2025A Review of Diffusion-based Simulation-Based Inference: Foundations and Applications in Non-Ideal Data Scenarioscited by 1
  3. 2026Pointwise Metrics Mislead: An Evaluation Protocol for Multimodal Inverse Problemscited by 1
  4. 2023An efficient likelihood-free Bayesian inference method based on sequential neural posterior estimationcited by 0
  5. 2024Leveraging Nested MLMC for Sequential Neural Posterior Estimation with Intractable Likelihoodscited by 0
  6. 2024Cost Estimation in Unit Commitment Problems Using Simulation-Based Inferencecited by 0
  7. 2025Fast reconstruction of degenerate populations of conductance-based neuron models from spike timescited by 0
  8. 2025Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based wCDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis designcited by 0
  9. 2025Fast and Robust Simulation-Based Inference With Optimization Monte Carlocited by 0
  10. 2026Simulation-Based Inference via Regression Projection and Batched Discrepanciescited by 0
  11. 2026Confidence Freeze: Early Success Induces a Metastable Decoupling of Metacognition and Behaviourcited by 0
  12. 2026Conservative neural posterior estimation via distributionally robust trainingcited by 0
  13. 2026Amortized Inference for Sampling Distributions Where the Bootstrap Failscited by 0
  14. 2026Priors learned from legacy reconstructions inherit undetectable overconfidencecited by 0
  15. 2026Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for fMRI Functional Connectivity via Simulation-Based Inferencecited by 0
  16. 2026A Missing Latent, Not a Missing Simulator: Radius-Augmented Inference for Real JWST Retrievalcited by 0