mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Model-Predictive Policy Learning with Uncertainty Regularization for Driving in Dense Traffic

arXiv 1901.02705 ↗First posted 8 Jan 2019cs.LG cs.AI stat.MLcited by 50

Not on the map. Why?

Cited by 22 in End-to-end autonomous driving, but placed by its own abstract, which didn’t fit.

Abstract (arXiv)

Learning a policy using only observational data is challenging because the distribution of states it induces at execution time may differ from the distribution observed during training. We propose to train a policy by unrolling a learned model of the environment dynamics over multiple time steps while explicitly penalizing two costs: the original cost the policy seeks to optimize, and an uncertainty cost which represents its divergence from the states it is trained on. We measure this second cost by using the uncertainty of the dynamics model about its own predictions, using recent ideas from uncertainty estimation for deep networks. We evaluate our approach using a large-scale observational dataset of driving behavior recorded from traffic cameras, and show that we are able to learn effective driving policies from purely observational data, with no environment interaction.

Key facts. Cited by 50 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 8 Jan 2019.

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Citing papers per year: 2020: 2; 2021: 13; 2022: 10; 2023: 12; 2024: 5; 2025: 6; 2026: 2.

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  1. 2023End-to-end Autonomous Driving: Challenges and Frontierscited by 485
  2. 2022DayDreamer: World Models for Physical Robot Learningcited by 372
  3. 2023Driving into the Future: Multiview Visual Forecasting and Planning with World Model for Autonomous Drivingcited by 309
  4. 2021TrafficSim: Learning to Simulate Realistic Multi-Agent Behaviorscited by 192
  5. 2022Model-Based Imitation Learning for Urban Drivingcited by 149
  6. 2025End-to-End Driving with Online Trajectory Evaluation via BEV World Modelcited by 145
  7. 2021Urban Driver: Learning to Drive from Real-world Demonstrations Using Policy Gradientscited by 122
  8. 2021Reward (Mis)design for Autonomous Drivingcited by 102
  9. 2022Tutorial on amortized optimizationcited by 83
  10. 2024World Models for Autonomous Driving: An Initial Surveycited by 79
  11. 2021SimNet: Learning Reactive Self-driving Simulations from Real-world Observationscited by 77
  12. 2024DrivingWorld: Constructing World Model for Autonomous Driving via Video GPTcited by 66
38 more
  1. 2025A Survey of World Models for Autonomous Drivingcited by 60
  2. 2021A Survey of Deep RL and IL for Autonomous Driving Policy Learningcited by 59
  3. 2023TrafficBots: Towards World Models for Autonomous Driving Simulation and Motion Predictioncited by 56
  4. 2021Learning the Predictability of the Futurecited by 48
  5. 2021MBRL-Lib: A Modular Library for Model-based Reinforcement Learningcited by 41
  6. 2022Real-time Neural-MPC: Deep Learning Model Predictive Control for Quadrotors and Agile Robotic Platformscited by 36
  7. 2023MUVO: A Multimodal Generative World Model for Autonomous Driving with Geometric Representationscited by 33
  8. 2021PredictionNet: Real-Time Joint Probabilistic Traffic Prediction for Planning, Control, and Simulationcited by 29
  9. 2023Rethinking Closed-loop Training for Autonomous Drivingcited by 29
  10. 2023MoDem-V2: Visuo-Motor World Models for Real-World Robot Manipulationcited by 27
  11. 2023Learning Realistic Traffic Agents in Closed-loopcited by 24
  12. 2021UMBRELLA: Uncertainty-Aware Model-Based Offline Reinforcement Learning Leveraging Planningcited by 23
  13. 2021Generating and Characterizing Scenarios for Safety Testing of Autonomous Vehiclescited by 21
  14. 2022Plan Your Target and Learn Your Skills: Transferable State-Only Imitation Learning via Decoupled Policy Optimizationcited by 12
  15. 2023CCIL: Context-conditioned imitation learning for urban drivingcited by 12
  16. 2020Triple-GAIL: A Multi-Modal Imitation Learning Framework with Generative Adversarial Netscited by 11
  17. 2024Learning to Drive via Asymmetric Self-Playcited by 11
  18. 2022Spatiotemporal Costmap Inference for MPC via Deep Inverse Reinforcement Learningcited by 10
  19. 2023Explainable Action Prediction through Self-Supervision on Scene Graphscited by 9
  20. 2021Anti-Concentrated Confidence Bonuses for Scalable Explorationcited by 7
  21. 2021What classifiers know what they don't?cited by 6
  22. 2023Learning Interaction-aware Motion Prediction Model for Decision-making in Autonomous Drivingcited by 6
  23. 2020SAFARI: Safe and Active Robot Imitation Learning with Imaginationcited by 5
  24. 2026The Surprising Difficulty of Search in Model-Based Reinforcement Learningcited by 5
  25. 2021Large Scale Autonomous Driving Scenarios Clustering with Self-supervised Feature Extractioncited by 4
  26. 2022Tailored Uncertainty Estimation for Deep Learning Systemscited by 3
  27. 2023Learning to Predict Navigational Patterns from Partial Observationscited by 3
  28. 2023SeRO: Self-Supervised Reinforcement Learning for Recovery from Out-of-Distribution Situationscited by 2
  29. 2025Dynamical modeling of nonlinear latent factors in multiscale neural activity with real-time inferencecited by 2
  30. 2022KINet: Unsupervised Forward Models for Robotic Pushing Manipulationcited by 1
  31. 2022A Transferable Legged Mobile Manipulation Framework Based on Disturbance Predictive Controlcited by 1
  32. 2025LaMOuR: Leveraging Language Models for Out-of-Distribution Recovery in Reinforcement Learningcited by 1
  33. 2026Risk-Aware World Model Predictive Control for Generalizable End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 1
  34. 2022Enhanced Behavioral Cloning with Environmental Losses for Self-Driving Vehiclescited by 0
  35. 2024MRIC: Model-Based Reinforcement-Imitation Learning with Mixture-of-Codebooks for Autonomous Driving Simulationcited by 0
  36. 2024SoftCTRL: Soft conservative KL-control of Transformer Reinforcement Learning for Autonomous Drivingcited by 0
  37. 2025Scalable Offline Metrics for Autonomous Drivingcited by 0
  38. 2025Planning as Descent: Goal-Conditioned Latent Trajectory Synthesis in Learned Energy Landscapescited by 0