mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts

arXiv 1705.08807 ↗First posted 24 May 2017cs.AI cs.CYcited by 41

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Abstract (arXiv)

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. To adapt public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances. Here we report the results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI. Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans. These results will inform discussion amongst researchers and policymakers about anticipating and managing trends in AI.

Key facts. Cited by 41 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 24 May 2017.

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Citing papers per year: 2018: 1; 2019: 0; 2020: 1; 2021: 9; 2022: 7; 2023: 9; 2024: 8; 2025: 4; 2026: 2.

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